Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Increased NO from $24k → $57k at 83¢ — 52% of their portfolio. Smart money is 68% NO (78 whales).

Bought $22k of YES at 25¢. Cuts against smart money, which is 33% YES (76 whales).

Re-entered with $22k on NO at 81¢. Smart money is 66% NO (77 whales).

Bought $21k of NO at 80¢. Smart money is 72% NO (77 whales).

Increased NO from $16k → $35k at 80¢ — their 2nd add this week, 11% of their portfolio. Smart money is 68% NO (77 whales).

Increased YES from $31k → $49k at 17¢. Cuts against smart money, which is 30% YES (78 whales).

Increased YES from $44k → $61k at 17¢ — 6% of their portfolio. Cuts against smart money, which is 31% YES (78 whales).

Bought $15k of YES at 20¢. Cuts against smart money, which is 33% YES (76 whales).

New position: $14k on NO at 80¢ — 5% of their portfolio. Smart money is 67% NO (76 whales).

Increased YES from $41k → $55k at 24¢ — their 2nd add this week, 6% of their portfolio. Cuts against smart money, which is 31% YES (78 whales).

Sold $13k of YES at 22¢. Smart money is 32% YES (76 whales).

New position: $13k on NO at 81¢ — 19% of their portfolio. Smart money is 69% NO (80 whales).

Trimmed NO from $18k → $6k at 80¢. Cuts against smart money, which is 67% NO (78 whales).

Re-entered with $12k on NO at 79¢ — their 2nd add this week. Smart money is 69% NO (75 whales).

New position: $11k on NO at 80¢. Smart money is 67% NO (78 whales).

Bought $11k of NO at 82¢ while still holding the other side — their 2nd add this week. Smart money is 67% NO (78 whales).

Trimmed YES from $21k → $11k at 20¢ — their 2nd sale this week. Smart money is 32% YES (76 whales).

Re-entered with $10k on NO at 80¢ — their 2nd add this week. Smart money is 67% NO (76 whales).

Increased NO from $213k → $223k at 80¢ — their 2nd add this week. Smart money is 72% NO (77 whales).