WhaleWatcher

TheReturnOfDarthMaul

87Qualified whaleProven traderSpecialist
0x3a8aa345d5db7ec5138298c8c4f4540259be7699· stats updated 2d ago
Realized PnL
+$2,741,381
closed + open positions
Return on capital
15%
realized PnL ÷ capital deployed
Win rate
100%
500 of 500 resolved
Resolved markets
500
Portfolio value
$2,038,391
Capital deployed
$17,945,411
lifetime cost of all positions
Tracked whale volume
$3,750,037
volume seen by WhaleWatcher
Open positions
75

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 30.0/30Return 12.7/25Consistency 25.0/25Sample size 20.0/20Concentration -0.6Total 87.1 / 100

Current positions

MarketOutcomeAvg priceValueUnrealized PnLTrade
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes79.3¢$571,849+$101,081Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?No90.4¢$168,903+$7,583Trade ↗
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes59.6¢$136,291-$209,585Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?No82.4¢$120,781-$1,288Trade ↗
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?No87.0¢$110,993-$10,439Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?Yes69.6¢$87,139+$11,342Trade ↗
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseYes28.0¢$76,783-$10,877Trade ↗
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes85.0¢$71,550-$18,609Trade ↗
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Yes81.2¢$62,000-$2,999Trade ↗
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?No93.9¢$50,671+$3,016Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?Yes79.4¢$50,382+$7,593Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No91.8¢$46,250+$350Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes91.7¢$46,250+$400Trade ↗
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?No78.0¢$43,167+$8,467Trade ↗
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?No85.0¢$38,750-$3,750Trade ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Yes29.6¢$35,573-$104,826Trade ↗
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No88.7¢$32,225+$2,954Trade ↗
Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026?No87.9¢$28,090+$2,865Trade ↗
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?No84.9¢$26,654+$3,810Trade ↗
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?No82.9¢$24,010+$4,091Trade ↗
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?No86.3¢$20,122+$2,216Trade ↗
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes88.5¢$16,200-$1,500Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?No87.4¢$16,090+$1,241Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?No94.0¢$14,933+$407Trade ↗
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?No95.8¢$13,090+$95Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?Yes72.8¢$12,883-$2,627Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?No92.5¢$10,118+$397Trade ↗
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?Yes83.2¢$9,477-$438Trade ↗
Xi Jinping out before 2027?No93.6¢$7,788+$303Trade ↗
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No96.9¢$7,352+$23Trade ↗
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?Yes49.0¢$6,045-$325Trade ↗
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?No84.2¢$5,869+$912Trade ↗
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No22.1¢$5,626+$380Trade ↗
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No91.6¢$4,903+$323Trade ↗
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?Yes75.3¢$4,818+$1,051Trade ↗
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?No75.8¢$4,728+$938Trade ↗
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?Yes69.7¢$4,678+$1,381Trade ↗
US recession by end of 2026?No79.0¢$4,348+$637Trade ↗
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No73.0¢$4,175+$525Trade ↗
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?No90.7¢$3,478+$211Trade ↗
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?Anthropic91.0¢$3,164+$67Trade ↗
Stripe IPO before 2027?No88.0¢$2,837+$282Trade ↗
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?No18.1¢$2,720-$3,060Trade ↗
Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 by December 31, 2026?No84.8¢$2,646+$374Trade ↗
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Yes13.4¢$2,572-$191Trade ↗
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?No77.2¢$2,450+$520Trade ↗
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?Anthropic93.3¢$2,365+$30Trade ↗
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?No91.0¢$2,240+$147Trade ↗
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?No93.0¢$1,844+$99Trade ↗
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?No66.0¢$1,127+$335Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?No92.0¢$936+$47Trade ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Yes64.8¢$909+$102Trade ↗
Anthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?Anthropic + OpenAI 69.0¢$750-$1,320Trade ↗
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?No81.9¢$671-$201Trade ↗
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?No95.7¢$572+$23Trade ↗
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?Yes76.0¢$517-$6,322Trade ↗
Will Sergio Massa win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 Argentina presidential election?No90.2¢$495+$35Trade ↗
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?Yes13.0¢$461-$828Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?Yes55.0¢$460-$532Trade ↗
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?Yes13.5¢$450+$180Trade ↗
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Yes45.8¢$440-$3,224Trade ↗
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?No83.0¢$398+$53Trade ↗
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?No75.0¢$369+$86Trade ↗
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Yes28.5¢$335-$2,512Trade ↗
Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?No83.8¢$323+$47Trade ↗
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Yes44.8¢$205-$243Trade ↗
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?Yes31.6¢$202-$119Trade ↗
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes43.6¢$198+$23Trade ↗
Will Trump endorse Augusto Cury for President of Brazil?No99.1¢$182+$0Trade ↗
Will Trump endorse Lula da Silva for President of Brazil?No98.8¢$164+$1Trade ↗
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes36.0¢$114-$30Trade ↗
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?Yes7.0¢$105-$945Trade ↗
Will Trump endorse Romeu Zema for President of Brazil?No99.0¢$99-$0Trade ↗
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?Yes91.1¢$40-$1,705Trade ↗
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Yes79.7¢$1-$7Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

TimeMarketSideOutcomePriceSize
3d agoWill OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?BUYNo95.8¢$12,975
4d ago2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseBUYYes28.0¢$16,800
11d agoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?BUYYes44.8¢$22,600
16d ago2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseBUYYes29.0¢$24,157
32d agoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?BUYYes68.0¢$23,338
39d agoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUYYes88.0¢$31,456
39d agoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUYYes88.0¢$88,000
39d agoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUYYes88.0¢$86,367
40d agoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUYYes90.0¢$45,000
40d agoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUYYes89.0¢$44,500
40d agoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUYYes88.0¢$88,000
40d agoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUYYes87.0¢$73,065
41d agoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUYYes84.0¢$16,540
41d agoWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?BUYNo82.0¢$16,400
41d agoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUYYes80.0¢$80,000
41d agoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUYYes79.0¢$11,266
41d agoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUYYes79.0¢$17,380
41d agoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUYYes79.0¢$79,000
42d agoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUYYes78.4¢$36,630
42d agoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUYYes78.0¢$42,120
42d agoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUYYes79.0¢$64,780
42d agoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUYYes78.0¢$14,199
44d agoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUYYes81.0¢$78,724
44d agoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUYYes81.0¢$26,730
44d agoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUYYes81.0¢$21,190