flawfence

76Qualified whaleProven trader

0x23d81ba9371e576015c1e562db09c689f56b0288· stats updated 1d ago

Realized PnL

+$3,457,267

closed + open positions

Return on capital

11%

realized PnL ÷ capital deployed

Win rate

77%

347 of 452 resolved

Resolved markets

452

Portfolio value

$915,476

Capital deployed

$30,454,136

lifetime cost of all positions

Tracked whale volume

$1,115,902

volume seen by WhaleWatcher

Open positions

141

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 30.0/30Return 9.5/25Consistency 16.7/25Sample size 20.0/20Concentration -0.2Total 76.0 / 100

Current positions

Market	Outcome	Avg price	Value	Unrealized PnL	Trade
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	68.2¢	$236,785	+$17,004	Trade ↗
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	37.0¢	$94,510	+$50,649	Trade ↗
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	14.1¢	$61,717	+$19,227	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	Yes	50.8¢	$53,694	+$13,238	Trade ↗
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	60.9¢	$48,458	+$5,999	Trade ↗
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	86.4¢	$44,856	-$10	Trade ↗
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	No	82.2¢	$38,223	+$2,308	Trade ↗
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	35.9¢	$35,170	+$19,865	Trade ↗
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	60.4¢	$27,626	+$3,631	Trade ↗
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	86.3¢	$24,733	-$3,165	Trade ↗
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	51.2¢	$20,103	+$5,475	Trade ↗
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	No	90.0¢	$17,224	+$687	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	33.9¢	$16,559	-$3,141	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	No	45.0¢	$13,729	+$4,567	Trade ↗
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	19.8¢	$11,100	-$799	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?	Yes	74.8¢	$10,977	-$43	Trade ↗
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	54.1¢	$10,731	+$810	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	No	67.5¢	$10,015	-$984	Trade ↗
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	87.9¢	$9,909	+$591	Trade ↗
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	24.1¢	$9,622	+$4,612	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	62.5¢	$6,918	-$473	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	55.0¢	$6,571	+$884	Trade ↗
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	Yes	30.2¢	$6,518	+$978	Trade ↗
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	74.0¢	$6,071	+$274	Trade ↗
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	21.3¢	$5,769	+$1,378	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	57.0¢	$5,747	+$50	Trade ↗
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	72.7¢	$5,685	+$1,403	Trade ↗
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	No	56.7¢	$4,680	-$571	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	41.3¢	$4,626	+$131	Trade ↗
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	85.0¢	$4,375	+$125	Trade ↗
Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	No	85.0¢	$4,375	+$125	Trade ↗
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	83.0¢	$4,296	+$482	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?	No	75.0¢	$4,269	-$11	Trade ↗
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	13.6¢	$4,008	+$698	Trade ↗
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	Yes	16.3¢	$3,829	-$5,784	Trade ↗
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	2.6¢	$3,822	-$141	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	No	41.1¢	$3,410	-$1,110	Trade ↗
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	91.4¢	$3,030	+$104	Trade ↗
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	No	30.0¢	$2,800	+$400	Trade ↗
Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	20.0¢	$2,784	+$1,547	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	32.1¢	$2,628	-$334	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?	No	54.6¢	$2,050	+$214	Trade ↗
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	3.6¢	$1,897	+$1,430	Trade ↗
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	30.0¢	$1,605	-$283	Trade ↗
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	76.0¢	$1,424	+$45	Trade ↗
Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028?	No	53.2¢	$1,268	-$581	Trade ↗
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	No	59.0¢	$1,169	-$2,769	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?	Yes	54.6¢	$1,073	+$128	Trade ↗
Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	77.0¢	$1,038	+$114	Trade ↗
Will Iliana Iotova win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election?	Yes	94.0¢	$991	+$45	Trade ↗
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	52.5¢	$963	-$20	Trade ↗
Vote of confidence in Knesset by December 31?	Yes	44.9¢	$917	+$12	Trade ↗
Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	31.0¢	$877	+$266	Trade ↗
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	17.0¢	$850	-$3,400	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	41.0¢	$832	-$268	Trade ↗
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	31.0¢	$684	+$133	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?	No	45.0¢	$654	-$120	Trade ↗
Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?	No	31.7¢	$598	+$162	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	70.0¢	$561	+$27	Trade ↗
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	0.8¢	$350	+$287	Trade ↗
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?	Yes	32.1¢	$341	-$502	Trade ↗
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	0.7¢	$332	-$152	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?	Yes	45.0¢	$257	-$40	Trade ↗
Vote of confidence passes in Knesset by December 31?	Yes	40.0¢	$253	+$38	Trade ↗
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	3.6¢	$249	-$219	Trade ↗
Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?	No	89.3¢	$247	+$16	Trade ↗
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	72.0¢	$208	-$472	Trade ↗
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	0.8¢	$197	+$134	Trade ↗
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	Yes	0.6¢	$140	+$20	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party win the AK-AL House seat?	No	14.0¢	$110	+$40	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	34.0¢	$106	+$3	Trade ↗
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	0.8¢	$89	+$26	Trade ↗
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	0.8¢	$77	+$14	Trade ↗
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	No	77.0¢	$75	-$5	Trade ↗
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	0.8¢	$68	+$6	Trade ↗
Will Likud win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	20.0¢	$62	-$2,176	Trade ↗
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	0.8¢	$60	-$3	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Yes	42.0¢	$53	+$26	Trade ↗
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	0.8¢	$52	-$11	Trade ↗
Plague pandemic in 2026?	No	95.0¢	$49	+$2	Trade ↗
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	3.6¢	$46	-$421	Trade ↗
Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	0.8¢	$44	-$19	Trade ↗
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	0.8¢	$44	-$19	Trade ↗
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	16.8¢	$38	-$12,824	Trade ↗
Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	3.1¢	$34	-$34	Trade ↗
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad?	Yes	73.0¢	$34	+$1	Trade ↗
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	3.6¢	$33	-$435	Trade ↗
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	0.8¢	$20	-$43	Trade ↗
Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	3.6¢	$20	-$448	Trade ↗
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	3.6¢	$20	-$448	Trade ↗
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	3.6¢	$20	-$448	Trade ↗
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	3.6¢	$20	-$448	Trade ↗
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	3.6¢	$20	-$448	Trade ↗
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	3.6¢	$13	-$454	Trade ↗
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	3.6¢	$13	-$454	Trade ↗
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	3.6¢	$13	-$454	Trade ↗
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	3.6¢	$13	-$454	Trade ↗
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	3.6¢	$13	-$454	Trade ↗
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	3.6¢	$13	-$454	Trade ↗
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	3.6¢	$13	-$454	Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

Time	Market	Side	Outcome	Price	Size
3d ago	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	BUY	Yes	69.0¢	$17,545
8d ago	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	BUY	No	70.0¢	$24,946
13d ago	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	BUY	No	67.0¢	$20,697
29d ago	Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	BUY	No	57.0¢	$11,430
29d ago	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	BUY	Yes	8.0¢	$12,018
32d ago	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY	Yes	59.0¢	$10,210
32d ago	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	SELL	No	41.1¢	$36,184
32d ago	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	SELL	Yes	43.6¢	$11,763
34d ago	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	SELL	Yes	86.2¢	$12,778
34d ago	Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold?	BUY	Yes	91.8¢	$12,824
34d ago	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	BUY	Yes	96.0¢	$34,237
35d ago	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	BUY	Yes	90.0¢	$33,026
35d ago	Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	SELL	Yes	99.6¢	$76,731
35d ago	Will voter turnout be between 53% and 56% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	SELL	No	94.2¢	$12,394
35d ago	Will voter turnout be between 53% and 56% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	BUY	No	91.7¢	$12,857
35d ago	Will voter turnout be between 50% and 53% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	BUY	No	97.1¢	$18,100
35d ago	Will voter turnout be between 53% and 56% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	BUY	No	89.7¢	$11,687
36d ago	Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	SELL	No	94.2¢	$13,299
38d ago	Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	SELL	Yes	99.0¢	$60,777
40d ago	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	BUY	No	71.0¢	$14,266
43d ago	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	SELL	Yes	51.4¢	$10,276
47d ago	Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	BUY	Yes	98.5¢	$68,950
47d ago	Will United Russia win between 310 and 324 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	BUY	No	73.9¢	$11,098
47d ago	Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	BUY	Yes	98.4¢	$67,297
48d ago	Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	BUY	No	99.5¢	$33,491