flawfence

79Qualified whaleProven trader

0x23d81ba9371e576015c1e562db09c689f56b0288· stats updated 1d ago

Realized PnL

+$3,091,298

closed + open positions

Return on capital

13%

realized PnL ÷ capital deployed

Win rate

79%

279 of 352 resolved

Resolved markets

352

Portfolio value

$878,457

Capital deployed

$24,437,765

lifetime cost of all positions

Tracked whale volume

$647,856

volume seen by WhaleWatcher

Open positions

115

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 30.0/30Return 10.5/25Consistency 18.3/25Sample size 20.0/20Concentration 0.0Total 78.8 / 100

Current positions

Market	Outcome	Avg price	Value	Unrealized PnL	Trade
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	50.0¢	$218,805	+$73,805	Trade ↗
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	98.4¢	$136,670	+$423	Trade ↗
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	50.0¢	$71,195	-$73,805	Trade ↗
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	24.6¢	$63,915	+$28,026	Trade ↗
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	No	82.0¢	$57,891	+$3,012	Trade ↗
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	98.0¢	$49,350	+$374	Trade ↗
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	32.5¢	$32,656	+$18,685	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	44.0¢	$31,654	+$5,125	Trade ↗
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	63.6¢	$29,843	+$551	Trade ↗
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	44.0¢	$24,828	+$3,616	Trade ↗
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	56.5¢	$21,866	-$413	Trade ↗
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?	Yes	57.3¢	$19,670	+$2,843	Trade ↗
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	66.3¢	$16,917	+$1,437	Trade ↗
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	No	91.9¢	$12,031	+$325	Trade ↗
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	72.7¢	$5,552	+$1,270	Trade ↗
Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	14.3¢	$5,332	+$3,186	Trade ↗
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	No	80.5¢	$5,203	+$372	Trade ↗
Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?	No	95.8¢	$4,974	+$177	Trade ↗
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	No	52.0¢	$4,201	+$811	Trade ↗
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	43.0¢	$3,836	+$657	Trade ↗
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	14.3¢	$3,607	+$1,459	Trade ↗
Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	No	87.1¢	$3,448	+$41	Trade ↗
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	4.6¢	$3,246	-$2,832	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	No	44.4¢	$3,037	-$374	Trade ↗
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	No	59.0¢	$2,905	-$1,033	Trade ↗
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	Yes	14.0¢	$2,808	+$102	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	Yes	43.3¢	$2,611	-$217	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	No	40.5¢	$2,147	-$375	Trade ↗
Will SPD win 22-25 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	59.7¢	$2,103	+$61	Trade ↗
Will United Russia win the next Omsk Oblast Parliament elections?	Yes	94.0¢	$1,924	+$76	Trade ↗
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Federal District?	Yes	68.8¢	$1,833	+$456	Trade ↗
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	15.7¢	$1,798	+$504	Trade ↗
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	23.7¢	$1,785	+$352	Trade ↗
Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?	No	60.1¢	$1,592	+$626	Trade ↗
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	76.0¢	$1,590	+$70	Trade ↗
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	50.0¢	$1,560	+$60	Trade ↗
Will AfD win 28-31 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	50.8¢	$1,509	+$128	Trade ↗
Will voter turnout be between 56% and 59% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	No	82.5¢	$1,251	+$21	Trade ↗
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	63.8¢	$1,100	+$13	Trade ↗
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	3.0¢	$1,069	+$21	Trade ↗
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	43.9¢	$1,053	+$99	Trade ↗
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	14.3¢	$1,051	-$1,094	Trade ↗
Will Maura Sullivan be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?	No	16.5¢	$1,031	+$59	Trade ↗
Will AfD win 32-35 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	No	67.7¢	$1,024	+$198	Trade ↗
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	14.9¢	$1,018	-$357	Trade ↗
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	3.6¢	$981	+$514	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?	No	55.2¢	$980	+$38	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	39.9¢	$975	-$151	Trade ↗
Will voter turnout be between 59% and 62% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	No	77.2¢	$965	+$111	Trade ↗
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)	Real Madrid CF	37.0¢	$949	+$37	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	57.0¢	$933	+$121	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?	Yes	54.7¢	$768	+$17	Trade ↗
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	3.6¢	$687	+$220	Trade ↗
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	5.6¢	$603	+$92	Trade ↗
Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	3.2¢	$590	-$1,918	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	70.0¢	$523	-$11	Trade ↗
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	72.0¢	$491	-$189	Trade ↗
Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?	No	31.7¢	$454	+$17	Trade ↗
Will Grüne win less than 14% of all valid second votes?	Yes	21.5¢	$364	+$23	Trade ↗
Will AfD win 24-27 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	9.7¢	$305	+$68	Trade ↗
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Turnout Up or Down?	Up	98.0¢	$289	+$6	Trade ↗
Will Yabloko win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	0.0¢	$237	+$237	Trade ↗
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	17.7¢	$236	+$46	Trade ↗
Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?	No	89.3¢	$235	+$4	Trade ↗
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?	No	37.0¢	$230	+$122	Trade ↗
Will United Russia win between 295 and 309 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	14.3¢	$222	-$459	Trade ↗
Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	3.6¢	$203	-$264	Trade ↗
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	No	17.6¢	$187	+$41	Trade ↗
Will voter turnout be between 50% and 53% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	13.0¢	$171	+$51	Trade ↗
Will Linke win at least 23% of all valid second votes?	Yes	13.9¢	$134	+$13	Trade ↗
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	32.0¢	$82	+$44	Trade ↗
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	3.6¢	$79	-$389	Trade ↗
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	16.8¢	$77	-$12,789	Trade ↗
Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	14.3¢	$66	-$757	Trade ↗
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	No	77.0¢	$66	-$14	Trade ↗
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	3.6¢	$59	-$408	Trade ↗
Will global temperature increase by between 1.42ºC and 1.45ºC in August 2026?	Yes	22.9¢	$55	-$623	Trade ↗
Will New People (NL) win fewer than 35 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	No	8.9¢	$48	+$7	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Yes	42.0¢	$36	+$9	Trade ↗
Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	0.2¢	$35	+$33	Trade ↗
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	3.6¢	$33	-$435	Trade ↗
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	3.6¢	$33	-$435	Trade ↗
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	3.6¢	$33	-$435	Trade ↗
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	3.6¢	$33	-$435	Trade ↗
Will Anthony DiLorenzo be the Republican Nominee for NH-01?	No	14.0¢	$32	+$1	Trade ↗
Will Augusto Cury finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	0.9¢	$32	+$7	Trade ↗
Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?	Yes	15.0¢	$29	+$3	Trade ↗
Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	31.0¢	$29	+$3	Trade ↗
Will Hollie Noveletsky be the Republican Nominee for NH-01?	Yes	14.0¢	$26	+$2	Trade ↗
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	3.1¢	$25	-$1,537	Trade ↗
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	3.1¢	$25	-$1,537	Trade ↗
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	3.1¢	$25	-$1,537	Trade ↗
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	3.1¢	$25	-$1,537	Trade ↗
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	3.1¢	$25	-$1,537	Trade ↗
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	3.1¢	$25	-$1,537	Trade ↗
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	3.1¢	$25	-$1,537	Trade ↗
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	3.1¢	$25	-$1,537	Trade ↗
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	3.6¢	$20	-$448	Trade ↗
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	3.6¢	$20	-$448	Trade ↗
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	3.6¢	$20	-$448	Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

Time	Market	Side	Outcome	Price	Size
1d ago	Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	BUY	Yes	98.5¢	$68,950
1d ago	Will United Russia win between 310 and 324 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	BUY	No	73.9¢	$11,098
1d ago	Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	BUY	Yes	98.4¢	$67,297
3d ago	Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	BUY	No	99.5¢	$33,491
3d ago	Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	BUY	No	99.2¢	$11,011
3d ago	Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	BUY	No	99.2¢	$22,032
3d ago	Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	BUY	No	99.3¢	$17,642
3d ago	Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	BUY	No	99.2¢	$48,176
3d ago	Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	BUY	No	99.3¢	$52,360
3d ago	Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	BUY	No	98.8¢	$13,562
3d ago	Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	BUY	No	92.7¢	$13,793
8d ago	Will Stephen Lynch be the Democratic nominee for MA-08?	BUY	Yes	77.4¢	$12,105
10d ago	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BUY	No	97.9¢	$17,347
13d ago	Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group B	BUY	Team Falcons	80.0¢	$80,000
19d ago	Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International Playoffs	BUY	Team Liquid	38.0¢	$39,140
21d ago	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	BUY	No	82.0¢	$19,534
24d ago	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BUY	Yes	29.9¢	$12,190
27d ago	Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	BUY	No	99.2¢	$15,637
30d ago	Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	SELL	No	99.6¢	$20,859
32d ago	Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	BUY	No	98.4¢	$52,572
33d ago	Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	BUY	No	98.0¢	$19,060