WhaleWatcher

classified

82Qualified whaleProven trader
0x12d6cccfc7470a3f4bafc53599a4779cbf2cf2a8· stats updated 11h ago
Realized PnL
+$3,787,816
closed + open positions
Return on capital
9%
realized PnL ÷ capital deployed
Win rate
100%
500 of 500 resolved
Resolved markets
500
Portfolio value
$327,043
Capital deployed
$42,832,062
lifetime cost of all positions
Tracked whale volume
$689,360
volume seen by WhaleWatcher
Open positions
76

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 30.0/30Return 7.4/25Consistency 25.0/25Sample size 20.0/20Concentration 0.0Total 82.4 / 100

Current positions

MarketOutcomeAvg priceValueUnrealized PnLTrade
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes67.6¢$71,605+$15,014Trade ↗
Iran leadership change by October 31?No97.0¢$26,624+$477Trade ↗
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?Yes90.7¢$16,306+$147Trade ↗
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes83.5¢$14,272+$649Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?Yes84.3¢$13,425+$778Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?Yes65.0¢$12,669-$718Trade ↗
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?No98.2¢$12,552+$168Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Yes40.0¢$11,833-$1,691Trade ↗
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?No93.0¢$11,826+$284Trade ↗
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?No98.7¢$10,637-$2Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?Yes92.9¢$9,975+$687Trade ↗
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseNo34.0¢$8,375-$125Trade ↗
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?No22.4¢$7,417-$690Trade ↗
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?No93.9¢$6,913+$342Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No67.0¢$6,650-$50Trade ↗
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Yes45.6¢$5,694-$964Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?No65.9¢$5,630+$513Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Yes52.8¢$5,505-$879Trade ↗
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Yes69.0¢$4,884-$776Trade ↗
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?Yes96.0¢$4,647+$166Trade ↗
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?No76.0¢$4,299+$163Trade ↗
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No78.9¢$3,975+$31Trade ↗
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?No95.7¢$3,704+$111Trade ↗
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?No96.5¢$3,556+$68Trade ↗
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Yes5.0¢$3,517+$320Trade ↗
Iran leadership change by December 31?Yes20.9¢$3,331-$1,479Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes67.0¢$3,325-$25Trade ↗
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?Yes3.1¢$2,720+$1,088Trade ↗
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Yes59.3¢$2,433-$671Trade ↗
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?No94.5¢$2,389+$14Trade ↗
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?Yes88.3¢$2,227+$123Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?No20.7¢$2,077-$525Trade ↗
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?No98.6¢$2,046-$27Trade ↗
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?No96.9¢$1,926+$7Trade ↗
Trump out as President before 2027?No95.9¢$1,915-$3Trade ↗
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?No98.8¢$1,886+$15Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Yes6.2¢$1,635+$81Trade ↗
Xi Jinping out before 2027?No96.6¢$1,533-$8Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?Yes39.3¢$1,222-$26Trade ↗
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Yes12.5¢$1,090-$96Trade ↗
Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?No99.2¢$995+$3Trade ↗
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?Yes17.9¢$924-$79Trade ↗
Iran leadership change by November 30?Yes6.0¢$906+$271Trade ↗
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?Yes7.6¢$894-$23Trade ↗
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Yes10.0¢$730+$189Trade ↗
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?No96.8¢$582+$17Trade ↗
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026No16.2¢$516+$118Trade ↗
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?No58.1¢$482-$133Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?Yes99.5¢$480-$0Trade ↗
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?No76.0¢$461+$96Trade ↗
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?No98.4¢$448+$4Trade ↗
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?Yes23.0¢$377+$23Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?Yes19.0¢$259+$40Trade ↗
Nothing Ever Happens: OctoberSomething5.4¢$197-$213Trade ↗
Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026?No98.2¢$130+$2Trade ↗
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?Yes34.7¢$115-$12Trade ↗
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?Yes38.0¢$97+$4Trade ↗
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?Yes1.1¢$50-$40Trade ↗
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027?No28.0¢$26+$1Trade ↗
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?Yes20.0¢$23-$9,322Trade ↗
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Yes6.0¢$22-$2Trade ↗
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Yes4.0¢$14-$3Trade ↗
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?No81.0¢$10+$2Trade ↗
Will Amanda Lind be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes2.8¢$10-$525Trade ↗
Will Daniel Helldén be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes2.8¢$10-$525Trade ↗
Will Nooshi Dadgostar be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes2.8¢$10-$525Trade ↗
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?No93.0¢$8+$0Trade ↗
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?Yes0.3¢$7-$6Trade ↗
Any G20 leader out in 2026?Yes15.0¢$6+$4Trade ↗
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No17.3¢$4+$0Trade ↗
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?Yes0.2¢$3-$8Trade ↗
Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?No98.8¢$2+$0Trade ↗
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 21?No3.1¢$1-$33Trade ↗
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Yes15.0¢$1+$0Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?No2.1¢$0-$1Trade ↗
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?No15.0¢$0-$0Trade ↗
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes3.1¢$0-$1,147Trade ↗
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes3.1¢$0-$1,147Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?No1.4¢$0-$142Trade ↗
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes3.1¢$0-$1,147Trade ↗
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?Yes4.1¢$0-$794Trade ↗
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes3.1¢$0-$1,147Trade ↗
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes3.1¢$0-$1,147Trade ↗
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes3.1¢$0-$1,147Trade ↗
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes3.1¢$0-$1,147Trade ↗
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes3.1¢$0-$1,147Trade ↗
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes3.1¢$0-$1,147Trade ↗
Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes3.1¢$0-$1,147Trade ↗
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes3.1¢$0-$1,147Trade ↗
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes3.1¢$0-$1,147Trade ↗
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes3.1¢$0-$1,147Trade ↗
Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes3.1¢$0-$1,147Trade ↗
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes3.1¢$0-$1,147Trade ↗
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes3.1¢$0-$1,147Trade ↗
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes3.1¢$0-$1,147Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

TimeMarketSideOutcomePriceSize
4d agoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?BUYYes96.0¢$10,825
4d agoWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUYNo80.0¢$11,440
7d agoIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?BUYYes70.6¢$11,438
7d agoWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?BUYNo80.0¢$36,120
7d agoUS-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?SELLYes76.0¢$16,293
8d agoUS-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?BUYYes77.0¢$16,507
9d agoUS-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?BUYYes77.0¢$10,272
9d agoWill there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?BUYNo96.5¢$10,288
10d agoWill there be no Hormuz agreement?BUYYes91.7¢$15,738
11d agoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?BUYYes81.0¢$10,285
11d agoUS-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?BUYYes77.0¢$11,083
11d agoWill there be no Hormuz agreement?BUYYes88.8¢$12,399
12d agoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?BUYYes81.0¢$13,485
12d agoWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?BUYYes81.0¢$12,998
12d agoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?SELLNo97.4¢$20,154
12d agoUS x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?BUYYes83.0¢$14,203
12d agoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?SELLNo97.3¢$15,176
12d agoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?BUYNo81.0¢$17,513
12d agoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?BUYYes99.9¢$15,555
12d agoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?BUYYes79.0¢$13,804
13d agoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?BUYYes98.1¢$10,636
13d agoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?BUYYes98.0¢$12,899
13d agoWill there be no Hormuz agreement?BUYYes88.0¢$13,472
13d agoWill there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?BUYNo92.0¢$25,641
17d agoWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUYYes85.3¢$15,573