LulaVaiPerder

73Qualified whaleProven trader

0x7f9e2d1df78614564a70becc7fa14aa9a6623a0e· stats updated 2d ago

Realized PnL

+$700,860

closed + open positions

Return on capital

realized PnL ÷ capital deployed

Win rate

81%

331 of 408 resolved

Resolved markets

408

Portfolio value

$695,114

Capital deployed

$7,901,747

lifetime cost of all positions

Tracked whale volume

$742,520

volume seen by WhaleWatcher

Open positions

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 27.1/30Return 7.4/25Consistency 19.4/25Sample size 20.0/20Concentration -1.2Total 72.8 / 100

Current positions

Market	Outcome	Avg price	Value	Unrealized PnL	Trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	74.3¢	$215,068	+$22,504	Trade ↗
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	59.2¢	$187,258	+$41,591	Trade ↗
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	Yes	70.7¢	$149,882	-$13,045	Trade ↗
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	74.8¢	$121,701	+$1,897	Trade ↗
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	86.5¢	$8,381	+$630	Trade ↗
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	94.3¢	$5,482	-$137	Trade ↗
Will Vicentinho Júnior win the 2026 Tocantins gubernatorial election?	Yes	59.9¢	$3,235	+$1,034	Trade ↗
Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?	Yes	87.2¢	$2,035	-$90	Trade ↗
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Pará?	Yes	84.8¢	$1,236	+$59	Trade ↗
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	No	68.4¢	$513	+$98	Trade ↗
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	No	83.7¢	$243	-$63	Trade ↗
Will Professora Dorinha win the 2026 Tocantins gubernatorial election?	No	66.5¢	$79	+$19	Trade ↗
Will the final be ESP vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	81.0¢	$0	-$2,453	Trade ↗
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	No	82.7¢	$0	-$53,241	Trade ↗
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1.0¢	$0	-$1,000	Trade ↗
Will Carlos Portinho win the most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?	No	89.9¢	$0	-$98	Trade ↗
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?	No	85.3¢	$0	-$17,489	Trade ↗
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?	No	89.0¢	$0	-$44	Trade ↗
Will Mohsen Araki be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	0.5¢	$0	-$4	Trade ↗
Mexico vs. England: England O/U 2.5	Under	89.0¢	$0	-$3,000	Trade ↗
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?	No	83.7¢	$0	-$47,244	Trade ↗
Will Renan Filho win the 2026 Alagoas gubernatorial election?	Yes	51.0¢	$0	-$10	Trade ↗
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	15.0¢	$0	-$1,000	Trade ↗
Portugal vs. Croatia: Team to Advance	Croatia	31.0¢	$0	-$1,894	Trade ↗
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	75.1¢	$0	-$3,161	Trade ↗
Will Renan win the most votes in the 2026 Alagoas Senate election?	Yes	30.5¢	$0	-$86	Trade ↗
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?	Yes	82.9¢	$0	-$450	Trade ↗
Spurs vs. Knicks	Spurs	79.8¢	$0	-$4,279	Trade ↗
Flávio Bolsonaro participates in debate before first round?	Yes	95.0¢	$0	-$3,985	Trade ↗
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?	No	61.8¢	$0	-$9,253	Trade ↗
Will JHC win the 2026 Alagoas gubernatorial election?	No	73.2¢	$0	-$318	Trade ↗
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	4.1¢	$0	-$3,864	Trade ↗
Will Carlos Jordy win the most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?	Yes	56.4¢	$0	-$97	Trade ↗
Will Renan win the second-most votes in the 2026 Alagoas Senate election?	Yes	23.9¢	$0	-$70	Trade ↗
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?	No	93.4¢	$0	-$1,099	Trade ↗
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?	Yes	89.2¢	$0	-$2,041	Trade ↗
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	32.7¢	$0	-$1,059	Trade ↗
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?	Yes	70.2¢	$0	-$1,145	Trade ↗
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	57.6¢	$0	-$7,363	Trade ↗
Iran closes its airspace by July 31?	No	62.0¢	$0	-$2,490	Trade ↗
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	Yes	79.6¢	$0	-$3,222	Trade ↗
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5.3¢	$0	-$5,300	Trade ↗
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?	No	10.0¢	$0	-$8	Trade ↗
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	No	88.2¢	$0	-$2,827	Trade ↗
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?	No	64.3¢	$0	-$4,404	Trade ↗
Iran closes its airspace by July 15?	No	68.0¢	$0	-$165	Trade ↗
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?	No	34.6¢	$0	-$1,350	Trade ↗
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	53.5¢	$0	-$8,966	Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

Time	Market	Side	Outcome	Price	Size
2d ago	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	BUY	Yes	65.2¢	$25,619
2d ago	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL	No	82.9¢	$24,876
3d ago	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	BUY	Yes	73.0¢	$16,394
3d ago	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	BUY	Yes	72.0¢	$32,533
4d ago	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	BUY	Yes	71.9¢	$32,381
5d ago	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	BUY	Yes	69.4¢	$21,407
5d ago	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	SELL	Yes	94.0¢	$21,620
6d ago	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	BUY	Yes	69.8¢	$10,788
9d ago	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BUY	No	80.0¢	$13,540
9d ago	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	BUY	Yes	91.0¢	$15,300
9d ago	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 16?	BUY	Yes	98.6¢	$15,222
9d ago	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BUY	No	79.0¢	$33,285
11d ago	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL	No	83.0¢	$16,952
13d ago	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?	BUY	Yes	94.0¢	$12,300
13d ago	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL	No	82.0¢	$12,300
13d ago	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?	BUY	Yes	92.0¢	$17,759
13d ago	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL	No	83.0¢	$17,724
13d ago	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL	No	83.0¢	$16,600
13d ago	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?	BUY	Yes	92.0¢	$16,614
13d ago	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL	No	83.0¢	$16,600
13d ago	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BUY	Yes	87.0¢	$16,510
13d ago	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL	No	83.0¢	$16,600
13d ago	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	BUY	Yes	95.3¢	$24,900
13d ago	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL	No	83.0¢	$24,900
19d ago	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BUY	No	85.0¢	$15,474