LulaPapuda

63Qualified whaleProven traderSpecialist

0x7f9e2d1df78614564a70becc7fa14aa9a6623a0e· stats updated 21h ago

Realized PnL

+$617,598

closed + open positions

Return on capital

realized PnL ÷ capital deployed

Win rate

82%

286 of 350 resolved

Resolved markets

350

Portfolio value

$659,949

Capital deployed

$6,613,953

lifetime cost of all positions

Tracked whale volume

$154,875

volume seen by WhaleWatcher

Open positions

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 26.1/30Return 7.8/25Consistency 19.8/25Sample size 20.0/20Concentration -10.4Total 63.3 / 100

Current positions

Market	Outcome	Avg price	Value	Unrealized PnL	Trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	72.1¢	$508,474	+$79,615	Trade ↗
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Yes	85.4¢	$29,564	+$18	Trade ↗
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	83.8¢	$24,483	-$380	Trade ↗
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	36.6¢	$19,619	+$3,873	Trade ↗
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	87.0¢	$16,407	+$1,470	Trade ↗
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	No	91.8¢	$11,256	+$60	Trade ↗
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	71.1¢	$10,230	+$1,816	Trade ↗
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by September 30?	No	87.0¢	$8,850	+$150	Trade ↗
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	No	92.5¢	$6,781	-$263	Trade ↗
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?	No	79.5¢	$5,146	+$440	Trade ↗
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	No	94.7¢	$5,031	-$443	Trade ↗
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	43.0¢	$4,200	+$398	Trade ↗
Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election?	Yes	86.5¢	$1,661	+$47	Trade ↗
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Federal District?	Yes	77.8¢	$1,297	+$194	Trade ↗
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	No	61.4¢	$1,267	+$367	Trade ↗
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	No	83.4¢	$1,159	+$14	Trade ↗
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Goiás?	Yes	64.4¢	$955	+$290	Trade ↗
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?	No	93.4¢	$929	-$170	Trade ↗
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	60.6¢	$720	-$157	Trade ↗
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	93.5¢	$481	-$55	Trade ↗
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	68.4¢	$418	-$519	Trade ↗
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Goiás?	No	65.5¢	$176	+$54	Trade ↗
Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Federal District?	No	79.0¢	$159	+$23	Trade ↗
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?	Yes	19.8¢	$156	+$81	Trade ↗
Lula participates in debate before first round?	No	64.3¢	$145	+$2	Trade ↗
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?	Yes	38.8¢	$140	-$9	Trade ↗
Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais?	Yes	86.1¢	$100	-$8	Trade ↗
Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by September 30?	No	87.1¢	$61	+$4	Trade ↗
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?	Yes	92.7¢	$55	-$4	Trade ↗
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?	No	89.0¢	$28	-$16	Trade ↗
Will the final be ESP vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	81.0¢	$0	-$2,453	Trade ↗
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	No	82.7¢	$0	-$53,241	Trade ↗
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1.0¢	$0	-$1,000	Trade ↗
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?	No	85.3¢	$0	-$17,489	Trade ↗
Will Mohsen Araki be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	0.5¢	$0	-$4	Trade ↗
Mexico vs. England: England O/U 2.5	Under	89.0¢	$0	-$3,000	Trade ↗
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?	No	83.7¢	$0	-$47,244	Trade ↗
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	15.0¢	$0	-$1,000	Trade ↗
Portugal vs. Croatia: Team to Advance	Croatia	31.0¢	$0	-$1,894	Trade ↗
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	75.1¢	$0	-$3,161	Trade ↗
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?	Yes	82.9¢	$0	-$450	Trade ↗
Spurs vs. Knicks	Spurs	79.8¢	$0	-$4,279	Trade ↗
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?	No	61.8¢	$0	-$9,253	Trade ↗
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	4.1¢	$0	-$3,864	Trade ↗
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?	Yes	89.2¢	$0	-$2,041	Trade ↗
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	32.7¢	$0	-$1,059	Trade ↗
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?	Yes	70.2¢	$0	-$1,145	Trade ↗
Iran closes its airspace by July 31?	No	62.0¢	$0	-$2,490	Trade ↗
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	Yes	79.6¢	$0	-$3,222	Trade ↗
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5.3¢	$0	-$5,300	Trade ↗
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?	No	10.0¢	$0	-$8	Trade ↗
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	No	88.2¢	$0	-$2,827	Trade ↗
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?	No	64.3¢	$0	-$4,404	Trade ↗
Iran closes its airspace by July 15?	No	68.0¢	$0	-$165	Trade ↗
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?	No	34.6¢	$0	-$1,350	Trade ↗
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	53.5¢	$0	-$8,966	Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

Time	Market	Side	Outcome	Price	Size
8d ago	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY	No	85.0¢	$12,966
9d ago	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	SELL	Yes	99.9¢	$18,978
24d ago	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	BUY	Yes	95.0¢	$17,834
28d ago	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY	No	82.0¢	$52,000
31d ago	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	BUY	Yes	95.0¢	$19,203
31d ago	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	BUY	Yes	96.0¢	$16,945
31d ago	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?	SELL	Yes	99.7¢	$16,949