WhaleWatcher

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Macro Election 2View on Polymarket ↗
Trade this market ↗
24h volume
$42,673
Liquidity
$393,169
Whale net flow (24h)
+$179,051
12 tracked trades · buys $205,185 · sells $26,134
Outcomes
Yes / No

Smart-money consensus (open positions of qualified whales)

Yes 96%4% No
127 qualified whales · $4M positioned

Largest whale trades (7 days)

TimeTraderSideOutcomePriceSize
6d agoRaioredBUYYes79.6¢$88,965

Increased YES from $137k → $226k at 80¢ — their 4th add this week, 65% of their portfolio. Smart money is 97% YES (108 whales).

3h agobrabo997BUYYes80.2¢$60,915

Bought $61k of YES at 80¢. Smart money is 96% YES (128 whales).

4d agordbaBUYYes78.0¢$51,767

Bought $52k of YES at 78¢. Smart money is 97% YES (113 whales).

3d agoSaul2626BUYYes78.3¢$49,423

Bought $49k of YES at 78¢. Smart money is 98% YES (112 whales).

2d ago0xc1a9273b15a17d21AF09DddB42b9239B93D4e2Db-1777826537793SELLYes75.6¢$38,102

Trimmed YES from $41k → $3k at 76¢. Cuts against smart money, which is 98% YES (110 whales).

1d agoeventalpha26SELLNo21.0¢$28,792

Trimmed NO from $293k → $265k at 21¢. Smart money is 3% NO (114 whales).

5d agoFaroeseNationalistBUYYes77.0¢$26,950

Increased YES from $6k → $33k at 77¢ — their 2nd add this week, 81% of their portfolio. Smart money is 98% YES (111 whales).

3d agoeventalpha26BUYNo22.0¢$26,812

Increased NO from $222k → $249k at 22¢ — their 3rd add this week, 9% of their portfolio. Cuts against smart money, which is 2% NO (113 whales).

1d agoMelody626BUYYes76.9¢$26,696

Increased YES from $38k → $65k at 77¢ — 6% of their portfolio. Smart money is 97% YES (113 whales).

1d agothemainBUYYes80.3¢$24,886

Increased YES from $151k → $176k at 80¢ — 11% of their portfolio. Smart money is 97% YES (119 whales).

4h agoschallen11BUYYes80.2¢$24,481

Bought $24k of YES at 80¢. Smart money is 96% YES (128 whales).

5d agoLolakisBUYYes77.0¢$23,314

Increased YES from $116 → $23k at 77¢ — 44% of their portfolio. Smart money is 98% YES (111 whales).

5h agoThanksGivingTurkey1001BUYYes78.9¢$23,154

Increased YES from $106k → $130k at 79¢ — 8% of their portfolio. Smart money is 97% YES (127 whales).

4d agoFaroeseNationalistSELLYes79.9¢$19,977

Trimmed YES from $37k → $17k at 80¢. Cuts against smart money, which is 97% YES (112 whales).

1d agogsandreBUYNo20.0¢$19,000

Increased NO from $22k → $41k at 20¢ — their 2nd add this week, 85% of their portfolio. Cuts against smart money, which is 3% NO (119 whales).

3d agobigbelieverBUYYes79.5¢$18,139

New position: $18k on YES at 80¢. Smart money is 98% YES (111 whales).

15h agodromedaryyBUYNo17.3¢$16,578

Increased NO from $25k → $41k at 17¢. Cuts against smart money, which is 3% NO (122 whales).

10h agoaaabbbSELLYes79.6¢$15,654

Exited YES, selling a $15k position at 80¢. Cuts against smart money, which is 97% YES (126 whales).

4d agoLolakisSELLYes77.5¢$15,645

Sold $16k of YES at 78¢ while still holding the other side. Cuts against smart money, which is 98% YES (113 whales).

13h agoVilgefortzBUYYes79.7¢$15,063

Increased YES from $30k → $45k at 80¢. Smart money is 97% YES (125 whales).

Top holders

Yes
No