Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Bought $48k of NO at 47¢. Cuts against smart money, which is 8% NO (64 whales).

Increased YES from $27k → $74k at 50¢ — their 2nd add this week, 11% of their portfolio. Smart money is 91% YES (64 whales).

Increased YES from $114k → $159k at 49¢ — 39% of their portfolio. Smart money is 91% YES (65 whales).

Trimmed YES from $154k → $122k at 54¢ — their 2nd sale this week. Cuts against smart money, which is 92% YES (61 whales).

Increased YES from $1.4M → $1.4M at 53¢ — their 2nd add this week. Smart money is 91% YES (66 whales).

Trimmed YES from $76k → $48k at 49¢ — their 2nd sale this week. Cuts against smart money, which is 90% YES (61 whales).

Trimmed YES from $147k → $120k at 55¢. Cuts against smart money, which is 92% YES (61 whales).

Increased YES from $114k → $140k at 50¢ — their 2nd add this week, 22% of their portfolio. Smart money is 90% YES (60 whales).

New position: $24k on YES at 49¢ — 20% of their portfolio. Smart money is 88% YES (66 whales).

Bought $24k of NO at 48¢. Cuts against smart money, which is 9% NO (65 whales).

Sold $22k of YES at 50¢. Cuts against smart money, which is 91% YES (69 whales).

New position: $20k on NO at 49¢. Cuts against smart money, which is 9% NO (64 whales).

New position: $20k on YES at 51¢ — 13% of their portfolio. Smart money is 91% YES (69 whales).

Bought $19k of YES at 49¢. Smart money is 90% YES (60 whales).

Bought $19k of NO at 50¢. Cuts against smart money, which is 10% NO (60 whales).

Trimmed NO from $20k → $1k at 46¢. Smart money is 9% NO (64 whales).

Trimmed NO from $23k → $6k at 45¢. Smart money is 11% NO (67 whales).

Trimmed NO from $50k → $33k at 49¢ — their 2nd sale this week. Smart money is 10% NO (70 whales).

Trimmed NO from $32k → $16k at 49¢ — their 3rd sale this week. Smart money is 10% NO (70 whales).

New position: $16k on NO at 48¢. Cuts against smart money, which is 9% NO (59 whales).