nibelung.retired

60Qualified whaleProven trader

0xcbab47f889ffffbb603f600a5feeb0eca0cc9a8a· stats updated 3d ago

Realized PnL

+$122,806

closed + open positions

Return on capital

realized PnL ÷ capital deployed

Win rate

92%

458 of 500 resolved

Resolved markets

500

Portfolio value

$87,404

Capital deployed

$3,233,503

lifetime cost of all positions

Tracked whale volume

$28,792

volume seen by WhaleWatcher

Open positions

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 12.9/30Return 3.2/25Consistency 25.0/25Sample size 20.0/20Concentration -1.0Total 60.1 / 100

Current positions

Market	Outcome	Avg price	Value	Unrealized PnL	Trade
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?	No	97.1¢	$26,244	+$404	Trade ↗
Republican House odds hit 15% by October 31?	No	92.0¢	$9,090	+$634	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?	No	94.8¢	$5,261	+$88	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-48 House seat?	Yes	90.9¢	$4,667	+$131	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-13 House seat?	Yes	93.9¢	$3,771	+$46	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-42 House seat?	Yes	95.0¢	$3,363	+$64	Trade ↗
Republican House odds hit 20% by October 31?	No	97.7¢	$3,247	+$41	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	86.0¢	$3,083	+$217	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026?	No	88.0¢	$3,070	+$181	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party win the CA-42 House seat?	No	95.0¢	$2,823	+$98	Trade ↗
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	85.4¢	$2,663	-$251	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	92.0¢	$2,592	+$14	Trade ↗
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	41.0¢	$2,571	+$282	Trade ↗
Osborn flips Ricketts for Nebraska Senate by November 2?	No	92.9¢	$2,441	+$46	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	No	52.0¢	$2,350	+$617	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	51.0¢	$2,250	+$550	Trade ↗
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	83.2¢	$2,240	+$7	Trade ↗
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	86.0¢	$1,677	-$160	Trade ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	29.4¢	$842	-$4,111	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?	Yes	88.0¢	$663	+$39	Trade ↗
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election in the city of Rio de Janeiro?	Yes	95.0¢	$556	+$9	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?	Yes	92.0¢	$540	+$23	Trade ↗
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	7.8¢	$509	-$97	Trade ↗
Will Democrats win the Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire Senate seats?	Yes	64.0¢	$207	+$2	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party win the CA-22 House seat?	No	90.0¢	$195	+$1	Trade ↗
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	21.0¢	$191	-$539	Trade ↗
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in October?	No	92.0¢	$76	+$6	Trade ↗
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	29.0¢	$75	-$70	Trade ↗
Will Peggy Flanagan run ahead of Amy Klobuchar?	No	88.3¢	$53	+$3	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?	Yes	94.6¢	$40	+$1	Trade ↗
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	95.5¢	$20	+$0	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win Denton County in the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	50.0¢	$17	-$3	Trade ↗
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	95.0¢	$13	+$0	Trade ↗
Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 World Series MVP?	No	90.0¢	$5	+$0	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party win the LA-06 House seat?	Yes	62.0¢	$2	+$1	Trade ↗
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?	No	90.9¢	$0	-$24,513	Trade ↗
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves	43.0¢	$0	-$409	Trade ↗
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in San Francisco City and County?	Yes	14.0¢	$0	-$8	Trade ↗
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	20.1¢	$0	-$1,947	Trade ↗
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June?	No	81.0¢	$0	-$77,769	Trade ↗
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	10.2¢	$0	-$1,780	Trade ↗
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	6.2¢	$0	-$41	Trade ↗
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in San Diego County?	No	91.7¢	$0	-$63	Trade ↗
Will Atlanta Braves advance to the NLCS in the 2026 MLB Playoffs?	Yes	22.0¢	$0	-$1	Trade ↗
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	Tampa Bay Rays	41.0¢	$0	-$80	Trade ↗
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	No	58.2¢	$0	-$101	Trade ↗
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins	Minnesota Twins	37.0¢	$0	-$70	Trade ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	0.9¢	$0	-$87	Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

Time	Market	Side	Outcome	Price	Size
36d ago	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in September?	BUY	No	98.5¢	$28,792