Elias.Thornwell

60Qualified whaleProven trader

0xa66790e2b0075e73c3781ddaf1d0b875a3aaceb3· stats updated 2h ago

Realized PnL

+$103,165

closed + open positions

Return on capital

realized PnL ÷ capital deployed

Win rate

100%

500 of 500 resolved

Resolved markets

500

Portfolio value

$717,381

Capital deployed

$2,167,631

lifetime cost of all positions

Tracked whale volume

$23,284

volume seen by WhaleWatcher

Open positions

500

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 11.5/30Return 4.0/25Consistency 25.0/25Sample size 20.0/20Concentration 0.0Total 60.5 / 100

Current positions

Market	Outcome	Avg price	Value	Unrealized PnL	Trade
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	95.0¢	$31,478	+$948	Trade ↗
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	95.0¢	$23,466	+$269	Trade ↗
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	93.2¢	$22,129	+$819	Trade ↗
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	91.7¢	$15,032	+$625	Trade ↗
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	81.5¢	$14,893	-$179	Trade ↗
Trump out as President before 2027?	No	91.9¢	$12,447	+$416	Trade ↗
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	91.6¢	$11,249	+$694	Trade ↗
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	88.4¢	$11,038	+$1,060	Trade ↗
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	92.8¢	$9,351	+$462	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	91.0¢	$9,188	+$101	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	92.4¢	$7,686	-$76	Trade ↗
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	90.2¢	$7,674	+$191	Trade ↗
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	85.7¢	$7,130	+$665	Trade ↗
US recession by end of 2026?	No	90.8¢	$6,955	+$131	Trade ↗
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	68.5¢	$6,784	+$1,864	Trade ↗
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	67.8¢	$6,714	+$1,994	Trade ↗
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	93.7¢	$6,314	+$199	Trade ↗
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	90.5¢	$5,879	+$393	Trade ↗
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	84.3¢	$5,632	+$619	Trade ↗
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	83.1¢	$5,509	-$324	Trade ↗
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	88.0¢	$4,915	+$289	Trade ↗
Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	93.8¢	$4,848	+$112	Trade ↗
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	92.0¢	$4,369	+$245	Trade ↗
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	67.2¢	$4,344	+$1,405	Trade ↗
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?	No	84.1¢	$4,103	+$585	Trade ↗
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?	No	97.4¢	$4,082	+$75	Trade ↗
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	88.2¢	$3,987	+$185	Trade ↗
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	59.2¢	$3,952	+$1,308	Trade ↗
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	No	88.0¢	$3,818	+$367	Trade ↗
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	99.9¢	$3,718	-$1	Trade ↗
New pandemic in 2026?	No	91.3¢	$3,694	+$201	Trade ↗
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	87.2¢	$3,553	-$71	Trade ↗
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	87.5¢	$3,480	+$345	Trade ↗
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	99.1¢	$3,399	+$15	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	75.9¢	$3,278	+$616	Trade ↗
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	68.7¢	$3,105	+$142	Trade ↗
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	91.9¢	$2,943	+$151	Trade ↗
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	93.1¢	$2,855	+$169	Trade ↗
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	94.4¢	$2,855	+$142	Trade ↗
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	97.2¢	$2,840	+$48	Trade ↗
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	73.7¢	$2,756	+$513	Trade ↗
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	99.6¢	$2,703	+$7	Trade ↗
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?	No	95.0¢	$2,662	-$81	Trade ↗
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	84.8¢	$2,494	-$235	Trade ↗
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	No	91.8¢	$2,402	+$75	Trade ↗
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	89.1¢	$2,355	+$204	Trade ↗
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	39.3¢	$2,347	+$647	Trade ↗
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?	No	97.7¢	$2,313	+$24	Trade ↗
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026?	No	87.8¢	$2,308	+$229	Trade ↗
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	99.6¢	$2,295	+$8	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	59.5¢	$2,255	+$157	Trade ↗
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?	No	94.6¢	$2,254	+$72	Trade ↗
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	96.0¢	$2,228	+$57	Trade ↗
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	90.7¢	$2,177	+$172	Trade ↗
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	95.1¢	$2,177	+$80	Trade ↗
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	82.8¢	$2,172	+$69	Trade ↗
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	96.1¢	$2,171	-$329	Trade ↗
Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	99.9¢	$2,127	+$1	Trade ↗
Russia coup attempt in 2026?	No	93.1¢	$2,125	+$77	Trade ↗
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	90.1¢	$2,122	+$119	Trade ↗
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	62.9¢	$2,119	+$114	Trade ↗
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?	No	92.0¢	$2,119	+$135	Trade ↗
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	95.3¢	$2,095	+$40	Trade ↗
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	98.6¢	$2,064	+$21	Trade ↗
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	92.3¢	$2,056	+$97	Trade ↗
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	99.8¢	$2,012	+$3	Trade ↗
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	No	95.0¢	$1,974	+$46	Trade ↗
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	86.9¢	$1,970	+$58	Trade ↗
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026?	No	91.5¢	$1,961	+$121	Trade ↗
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	87.5¢	$1,944	+$188	Trade ↗
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 by December 31, 2026?	No	95.3¢	$1,924	+$70	Trade ↗
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	55.0¢	$1,887	+$741	Trade ↗
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	89.2¢	$1,881	+$125	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	59.7¢	$1,855	+$111	Trade ↗
China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	88.9¢	$1,850	+$135	Trade ↗
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	99.5¢	$1,841	+$4	Trade ↗
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	55.8¢	$1,840	+$659	Trade ↗
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	99.1¢	$1,806	+$14	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?	No	96.0¢	$1,785	+$44	Trade ↗
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in October?	No	98.6¢	$1,745	+$16	Trade ↗
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?	No	94.0¢	$1,699	+$52	Trade ↗
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	93.3¢	$1,697	+$71	Trade ↗
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	94.5¢	$1,697	+$29	Trade ↗
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	57.7¢	$1,646	+$573	Trade ↗
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	98.7¢	$1,634	+$10	Trade ↗
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	99.6¢	$1,624	-$1	Trade ↗
Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026?	No	97.1¢	$1,595	+$11	Trade ↗
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	74.4¢	$1,578	+$322	Trade ↗
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	No	99.0¢	$1,559	+$2	Trade ↗
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	No	87.8¢	$1,536	-$42	Trade ↗
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	84.6¢	$1,515	+$25	Trade ↗
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	57.2¢	$1,487	+$526	Trade ↗
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	92.4¢	$1,483	+$97	Trade ↗
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	No	84.9¢	$1,464	+$105	Trade ↗
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	86.1¢	$1,431	+$114	Trade ↗
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	92.0¢	$1,407	+$59	Trade ↗
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	No	98.7¢	$1,405	+$9	Trade ↗
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	No	94.1¢	$1,371	+$44	Trade ↗
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	96.3¢	$1,359	+$43	Trade ↗
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	99.7¢	$1,328	+$4	Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

Time	Market	Side	Outcome	Price	Size
41d ago	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	BUY	Yes	78.0¢	$11,670
52d ago	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	BUY	No	99.5¢	$11,613