TBill1

42Qualified whaleProven trader

0xd52b8dcb4b812c4056faf41164a6f6c73f4c5c72· stats updated 2d ago

Realized PnL

+$212,239

closed + open positions

Return on capital

realized PnL ÷ capital deployed

Win rate

54%

261 of 479 resolved

Resolved markets

479

Portfolio value

$122,155

Capital deployed

$12,891,763

lifetime cost of all positions

Tracked whale volume

$29,200

volume seen by WhaleWatcher

Open positions

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 17.4/30Return 1.4/25Consistency 2.8/25Sample size 20.0/20Concentration 0.0Total 41.6 / 100

Current positions

Market	Outcome	Avg price	Value	Unrealized PnL	Trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	83.5¢	$22,460	+$4	Trade ↗
US recession by end of 2026?	No	89.4¢	$17,127	+$566	Trade ↗
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	50.0¢	$15,990	+$5,990	Trade ↗
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	74.0¢	$10,337	+$2,156	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	91.0¢	$9,250	+$150	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	91.0¢	$9,250	+$150	Trade ↗
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	87.1¢	$6,125	-$37	Trade ↗
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	50.0¢	$4,010	-$5,990	Trade ↗
France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?	No	82.0¢	$3,498	-$46	Trade ↗
Will GTA 6 cost $100+?	No	97.2¢	$2,675	+$32	Trade ↗
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	28.0¢	$2,407	+$943	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	No	73.0¢	$2,400	+$210	Trade ↗
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	60.2¢	$2,319	+$103	Trade ↗
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	73.0¢	$1,791	+$277	Trade ↗
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?	No	20.6¢	$1,515	+$305	Trade ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	30.2¢	$1,514	-$6,788	Trade ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	74.0¢	$1,005	-$105	Trade ↗
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	1.1¢	$937	-$424	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	92.0¢	$912	+$28	Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	86.9¢	$833	+$90	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	65.0¢	$675	+$25	Trade ↗
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	No	74.9¢	$469	+$93	Trade ↗
Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Yes	14.0¢	$431	+$11	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	No	59.5¢	$387	+$88	Trade ↗
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	74.5¢	$383	+$11	Trade ↗
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	29.0¢	$336	-$12	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	No	25.0¢	$293	+$178	Trade ↗
Will Jordan Bardella leave the National Rally by December 31, 2026?	No	93.0¢	$291	+$12	Trade ↗
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	75.0¢	$263	+$38	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	33.0¢	$261	+$100	Trade ↗
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	13.0¢	$210	-$50	Trade ↗
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	9.2¢	$207	-$210	Trade ↗
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	29.0¢	$185	-$105	Trade ↗
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?	No	81.0¢	$178	+$16	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	No	26.4¢	$170	+$4	Trade ↗
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	Yes	66.2¢	$169	+$55	Trade ↗
Will Marine Le Pen win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	89.0¢	$168	-$10	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	35.0¢	$165	-$10	Trade ↗
Will STRC hit $100 by October 31?	No	33.3¢	$148	+$89	Trade ↗
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	5.1¢	$141	-$16	Trade ↗
Will STRC hit $100 by November 30?	No	13.4¢	$95	+$63	Trade ↗
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by December 31, 2026?	No	84.0¢	$67	+$7	Trade ↗
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Yes	62.6¢	$49	-$84	Trade ↗
Will Brian Bengs win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026?	No	92.1¢	$28	+$1	Trade ↗
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 22?	Yes	0.2¢	$15	-$10	Trade ↗
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Yes	26.0¢	$12	-$22	Trade ↗
Will Karoline Leavitt be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	5.0¢	$6	-$10	Trade ↗
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	2.2¢	$1	-$6	Trade ↗
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Yes	4.2¢	$1	-$0	Trade ↗
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by October 31, 2026?	Yes	7.0¢	$0	-$2	Trade ↗
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by October 31?	No	7.0¢	$0	-$7	Trade ↗
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?	Yes	65.1¢	$0	-$295	Trade ↗
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	25.0¢	$0	-$15,000	Trade ↗
Will LAPTOP flip TRUMP by December 31, 2027?	No	1.0¢	$0	-$5	Trade ↗
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	Yes	21.6¢	$0	-$18	Trade ↗
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?	No	7.1¢	$0	-$3	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	Yes	11.2¢	$0	-$6	Trade ↗
Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?	Yes	25.0¢	$0	-$18,750	Trade ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	5.9¢	$0	-$9,660	Trade ↗
Was the Fox News guest wearing a mask?	Yes	1.8¢	$0	-$1	Trade ↗
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	55.9¢	$0	-$614	Trade ↗
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	3.6¢	$0	-$14	Trade ↗
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	2.4¢	$0	-$2,554	Trade ↗
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1.7¢	$0	-$266	Trade ↗
World Cup: Folarin Balogun to Play vs. Belgium?	No	2.4¢	$0	-$12	Trade ↗
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase August 25-31?	No	0.1¢	$0	-$2	Trade ↗
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	Yes	53.0¢	$0	-$16	Trade ↗
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 9?	Yes	1.5¢	$0	-$2	Trade ↗
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026?	Yes	16.2¢	$0	-$18	Trade ↗
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	No	0.6¢	$0	-$3	Trade ↗
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	Yes	52.0¢	$0	-$90	Trade ↗
Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1100?	No	4.7¢	$0	-$21	Trade ↗
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0.3¢	$0	-$18	Trade ↗
Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 6.5	Over	1.4¢	$0	-$4	Trade ↗
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)	Conor McGregor	0.1¢	$0	-$10	Trade ↗
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?	Yes	13.9¢	$0	-$32	Trade ↗
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 3 Morocco?	No	0.1¢	$0	-$5	Trade ↗
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	25.0¢	$0	-$15,000	Trade ↗
Trump renames AI by September 30?	No	26.4¢	$0	-$590	Trade ↗
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	2.5¢	$0	-$6	Trade ↗
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?	No	3.8¢	$0	-$8	Trade ↗
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?	Yes	5.0¢	$0	-$0	Trade ↗
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026	No	39.6¢	$0	-$11	Trade ↗
Baltimore Orioles vs. St. Louis Cardinals	Baltimore Orioles	23.0¢	$0	-$23	Trade ↗
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	Yes	25.0¢	$0	-$18,750	Trade ↗
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	Yes	7.7¢	$0	-$38	Trade ↗
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General by June 30?	Yes	11.3¢	$0	-$2	Trade ↗
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	17.1¢	$0	-$14	Trade ↗
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30?	Yes	0.4¢	$0	-$1	Trade ↗
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?	No	0.3¢	$0	-$0	Trade ↗
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?	Yes	17.0¢	$0	-$460	Trade ↗
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?	No	27.1¢	$0	-$8	Trade ↗
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150?	Yes	14.6¢	$0	-$30	Trade ↗
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 15?	Yes	18.6¢	$0	-$39	Trade ↗
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	2.3¢	$0	-$2,472	Trade ↗
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	25.0¢	$0	-$15,000	Trade ↗
Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	7.0¢	$0	-$5	Trade ↗
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	22.6¢	$0	-$27	Trade ↗
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	Yes	1.5¢	$0	-$1	Trade ↗
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?	Yes	30.4¢	$0	-$4	Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

Time	Market	Side	Outcome	Price	Size
4d ago	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	BUY	Yes	62.0¢	$12,400
14d ago	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY	No	84.0¢	$16,800