WhaleWatcher

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

78Qualified whaleProven trader
0xc8ab97a9089a9ff7e6ef0688e6e591a066946418· stats updated 23h ago
Realized PnL
+$4,655,714
closed + open positions
Return on capital
3%
realized PnL ÷ capital deployed
Win rate
100%
500 of 500 resolved
Resolved markets
500
Portfolio value
$621,508
Capital deployed
$145,031,269
lifetime cost of all positions
Tracked whale volume
$512,925
volume seen by WhaleWatcher
Open positions
367

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 30.0/30Return 2.7/25Consistency 25.0/25Sample size 20.0/20Concentration 0.0Total 77.7 / 100

Current positions

MarketOutcomeAvg priceValueUnrealized PnLTrade
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No50.0¢$119,175+$44,175Trade ↗
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?No81.9¢$39,668+$1,649Trade ↗
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes50.0¢$30,825-$44,175Trade ↗
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?No96.5¢$29,205+$265Trade ↗
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?No83.1¢$24,990+$2,287Trade ↗
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?Yes87.1¢$23,526-$6,376Trade ↗
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?No81.2¢$20,311+$1,835Trade ↗
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?No55.7¢$19,151+$7,492Trade ↗
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Yes90.9¢$16,065+$619Trade ↗
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?No38.0¢$11,250-$150Trade ↗
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes52.0¢$10,170+$3,811Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?No87.0¢$10,156-$2,745Trade ↗
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?No62.0¢$9,344+$38Trade ↗
Will Ann Kao win the next Hsinchu City Mayor election?Yes87.9¢$8,446-$37Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No91.4¢$7,320+$9Trade ↗
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?No88.1¢$7,192-$216Trade ↗
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Yes78.3¢$6,750-$297Trade ↗
Iran leadership change by November 30?No92.0¢$6,680-$37Trade ↗
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?No85.9¢$5,718-$24Trade ↗
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?No86.4¢$5,199+$238Trade ↗
Will Cash Cat be the first to hit a $1B FDV?No96.2¢$4,797-$13Trade ↗
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?No90.3¢$4,482-$199Trade ↗
Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?No97.0¢$4,137-$54Trade ↗
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?No79.9¢$3,574+$568Trade ↗
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.5% before 2027?No93.8¢$3,476-$276Trade ↗
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?No90.6¢$3,326-$418Trade ↗
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.35% before 2027?No91.6¢$3,280-$385Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes80.5¢$3,140-$80Trade ↗
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes92.6¢$3,120-$19Trade ↗
Betmoar FDV above $20M one day after launch?Yes70.9¢$2,969-$2,430Trade ↗
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes65.0¢$2,660+$60Trade ↗
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?No85.0¢$2,644-$14Trade ↗
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?No89.9¢$2,612-$56Trade ↗
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?No91.0¢$2,592+$14Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Yes64.3¢$2,379-$2,181Trade ↗
Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?No84.3¢$2,297-$49Trade ↗
Fetterman out by December 31, 2026?No94.9¢$2,245+$14Trade ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Yes77.7¢$2,235-$95Trade ↗
Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?Yes75.0¢$2,234-$1,369Trade ↗
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?No82.2¢$2,219-$134Trade ↗
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.40% before 2027?No90.5¢$2,204-$420Trade ↗
Will Rafael Grossi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No88.8¢$2,173-$194Trade ↗
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.90% before 2027?No79.3¢$2,156+$267Trade ↗
Iran leadership change by December 31?No86.3¢$2,067-$20Trade ↗
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 6.00% before 2027?No83.4¢$2,055+$224Trade ↗
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No79.2¢$2,019-$98Trade ↗
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Yes99.8¢$1,999+$3Trade ↗
France declares state of siege (martial law) by November 15, 2026?No97.6¢$1,971+$19Trade ↗
Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election?No76.5¢$1,955-$1,227Trade ↗
Will Ilhan Omar be deported by December 31, 2026?No97.1¢$1,941-$1Trade ↗
France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?No91.1¢$1,900+$78Trade ↗
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)No95.0¢$1,899-$10Trade ↗
Will Chang Chi-kai win the next Chiayi City Mayor election?No80.8¢$1,898-$93Trade ↗
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?No94.0¢$1,890+$10Trade ↗
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo92.0¢$1,850+$10Trade ↗
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by March 31, 2027?No78.3¢$1,850-$107Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes92.0¢$1,830-$10Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026?No91.5¢$1,820-$10Trade ↗
Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No94.1¢$1,820-$62Trade ↗
Will Papertrade launch a token by December 31, 2026?No86.3¢$1,772-$7Trade ↗
Will Marco Rubio attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No90.1¢$1,676+$26Trade ↗
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes50.0¢$1,663-$218Trade ↗
Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?No90.8¢$1,661+$23Trade ↗
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?No86.0¢$1,599-$234Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?No78.2¢$1,589+$16Trade ↗
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2027?No79.5¢$1,550-$40Trade ↗
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.6% before 2027?No86.5¢$1,545-$136Trade ↗
Will Marine Le Pen win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?Yes85.5¢$1,530-$36Trade ↗
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseYes27.9¢$1,530-$143Trade ↗
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?No75.5¢$1,520+$10Trade ↗
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Yes71.5¢$1,510+$80Trade ↗
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?Yes79.5¢$1,510-$80Trade ↗
Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?No75.0¢$1,416-$10Trade ↗
Will Chang San-cheng win the next Taoyuan Mayor election?Yes90.0¢$1,365-$46Trade ↗
Will Chuang Ching-cheng win the next Hsinchu City Mayor election?No89.0¢$1,347-$25Trade ↗
Republican Senate odds dip to 25% by October 31?No94.2¢$1,345-$104Trade ↗
Will Tung Tzu-wei win the next Keelung Mayor election?No76.5¢$1,340-$190Trade ↗
Will Chang Chia-chun win the next Yunlin County Magistrate election?Yes89.6¢$1,336-$97Trade ↗
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.45% before 2027?No80.0¢$1,279-$152Trade ↗
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes83.1¢$1,259-$515Trade ↗
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.7% before 2027?No83.5¢$1,219-$410Trade ↗
Will Elmedin Konaković be the next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina?No91.5¢$1,210-$34Trade ↗
Will Chen Ying win the next Taitung County Magistrate election?No86.1¢$1,127-$166Trade ↗
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?No88.6¢$1,051-$31Trade ↗
Will Wu Hsiu-hua win the next Taitung County Magistrate election?Yes84.2¢$1,050-$161Trade ↗
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?Anthropic95.4¢$1,021-$4Trade ↗
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.10% before 2027?No84.7¢$1,018-$269Trade ↗
Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?Yes59.5¢$1,016-$9Trade ↗
No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?No change97.2¢$1,012+$12Trade ↗
Will Nick Stewart attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No80.9¢$1,001-$71Trade ↗
Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?No72.4¢$987-$147Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?Yes92.5¢$984+$59Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?No93.8¢$977+$9Trade ↗
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?No87.3¢$975-$335Trade ↗
Will Hsieh Kuo-liang win the next Keelung Mayor election?Yes77.2¢$969-$344Trade ↗
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?No75.8¢$959+$44Trade ↗
Will Lauren Boebert resign by October 31, 2026?No96.1¢$944-$8Trade ↗
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?No93.5¢$940+$5Trade ↗
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?No91.0¢$915+$5Trade ↗
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?No93.8¢$912+$16Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

TimeMarketSideOutcomePriceSize
3d agoWill Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?BUYNo38.0¢$11,400
3d agoWill Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?SELLYes62.0¢$34,250
33d agoUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?SELLNo88.0¢$12,877
34d agoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?SELLYes54.0¢$11,178
36d agoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?SELLYes54.0¢$10,800
37d agoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?BUYYes51.0¢$18,870
38d agoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?BUYYes45.0¢$19,147
38d agoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?BUYYes45.0¢$22,500
54d agoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUYYes56.0¢$15,260
55d agoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUYYes57.0¢$21,150
55d agoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUYYes56.0¢$17,849
58d agoWill "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?BUYNo99.0¢$76,082
58d agoWill "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get at least 40 million views on day 1?BUYNo99.8¢$12,131
63d agoUS ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?BUYYes98.9¢$13,418
65d agoUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?BUYNo97.0¢$23,462
76d agoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUYYes40.0¢$11,737
76d agoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUYYes38.0¢$15,200
76d agoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUYYes37.0¢$47,706
76d agoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUYYes35.0¢$28,583
79d agoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUYNo99.4¢$44,730
79d agoWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUYNo99.1¢$44,595