ArmageddonRewardsBilly

75Qualified whaleProven trader

0xc8ab97a9089a9ff7e6ef0688e6e591a066946418· stats updated 3d ago

Realized PnL

+$6,872,902

closed + open positions

Return on capital

realized PnL ÷ capital deployed

Win rate

100%

500 of 500 resolved

Resolved markets

500

Portfolio value

$1,436,169

Capital deployed

$137,470,887

lifetime cost of all positions

Tracked whale volume

$371,903

volume seen by WhaleWatcher

Open positions

500

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 30.0/30Return 4.2/25Consistency 25.0/25Sample size 20.0/20Concentration -4.6Total 74.5 / 100

Current positions

Market	Outcome	Avg price	Value	Unrealized PnL	Trade
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	43.0¢	$691,836	+$103,003	Trade ↗
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	50.0¢	$75,350	+$25,350	Trade ↗
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	No	86.6¢	$62,468	+$1,346	Trade ↗
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	77.7¢	$28,262	+$3,445	Trade ↗
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?	No	54.3¢	$26,370	+$9,224	Trade ↗
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	87.3¢	$25,814	+$59	Trade ↗
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	50.0¢	$24,650	-$25,350	Trade ↗
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	79.4¢	$18,343	+$2,593	Trade ↗
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	Yes	82.2¢	$14,728	+$1,562	Trade ↗
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	85.1¢	$12,825	+$60	Trade ↗
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?	No	80.6¢	$11,607	+$669	Trade ↗
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	68.8¢	$11,119	+$708	Trade ↗
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	92.0¢	$11,100	+$66	Trade ↗
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	No	89.8¢	$10,740	-$42	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	91.0¢	$9,921	-$50	Trade ↗
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	67.8¢	$9,900	-$3,662	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	Yes	88.3¢	$9,302	-$3,834	Trade ↗
Will Ann Kao win the next Hsinchu City Mayor election?	Yes	88.4¢	$8,986	-$197	Trade ↗
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	No	88.2¢	$8,552	+$127	Trade ↗
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?	No	79.9¢	$8,396	+$1,065	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	67.4¢	$8,158	-$1,174	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	88.1¢	$8,112	-$549	Trade ↗
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	83.6¢	$8,058	+$777	Trade ↗
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	92.1¢	$7,256	+$108	Trade ↗
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	58.6¢	$6,788	-$384	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	No	74.5¢	$6,777	-$2,568	Trade ↗
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?	No	79.3¢	$6,278	+$316	Trade ↗
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	84.8¢	$5,644	+$112	Trade ↗
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?	No	96.7¢	$5,600	+$40	Trade ↗
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	92.0¢	$5,511	+$30	Trade ↗
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	69.5¢	$5,328	-$79	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	88.3¢	$5,250	-$50	Trade ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	74.1¢	$5,164	-$116	Trade ↗
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?	No	95.9¢	$5,062	+$70	Trade ↗
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	38.2¢	$4,792	+$193	Trade ↗
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	No	88.2¢	$4,736	+$66	Trade ↗
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?	No	61.0¢	$4,590	+$930	Trade ↗
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by September 30?	No	92.9¢	$4,555	-$173	Trade ↗
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	No	91.5¢	$4,507	+$241	Trade ↗
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	No	90.6¢	$4,483	+$44	Trade ↗
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	70.0¢	$4,258	-$159	Trade ↗
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?	No	94.3¢	$4,139	+$84	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	97.9¢	$3,974	+$56	Trade ↗
Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30?	Yes	95.7¢	$3,776	-$52	Trade ↗
Betmoar FDV above $20M one day after launch?	Yes	70.9¢	$3,622	-$1,786	Trade ↗
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	61.0¢	$3,560	-$1,320	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	88.5¢	$3,500	-$40	Trade ↗
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	No	87.3¢	$3,021	+$76	Trade ↗
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	55.0¢	$2,952	-$327	Trade ↗
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in September?	No	91.6¢	$2,937	+$59	Trade ↗
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	58.5¢	$2,925	$0	Trade ↗
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	35.9¢	$2,918	+$127	Trade ↗
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	17.4¢	$2,854	-$578	Trade ↗
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	80.5¢	$2,839	-$269	Trade ↗
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in September?	No	80.7¢	$2,512	+$83	Trade ↗
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	No	75.2¢	$2,476	+$246	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	80.9¢	$2,475	+$47	Trade ↗
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	No	92.0¢	$2,366	+$22	Trade ↗
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	No	87.8¢	$2,322	-$210	Trade ↗
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	No	91.8¢	$2,316	+$18	Trade ↗
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	Yes	89.5¢	$2,308	+$62	Trade ↗
Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by Sep 30?	No	92.7¢	$2,286	+$120	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	No	85.1¢	$2,140	+$141	Trade ↗
Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	85.9¢	$2,064	+$83	Trade ↗
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?	No	88.5¢	$2,028	+$22	Trade ↗
Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	No	79.9¢	$1,977	-$11	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic	95.2¢	$1,933	+$29	Trade ↗
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?	Yes	61.7¢	$1,906	+$360	Trade ↗
Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	94.0¢	$1,890	+$10	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	No	88.0¢	$1,850	+$90	Trade ↗
FCC revokes a major network broadcast license by December 31, 2026?	No	93.0¢	$1,825	-$29	Trade ↗
Will Elaine Pelino win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	91.6¢	$1,800	-$33	Trade ↗
Will Elmedin Konaković be the next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina?	No	91.5¢	$1,780	-$50	Trade ↗
Another GTA VI trailer released by September 30?	No	86.6¢	$1,766	+$18	Trade ↗
Will Bad Bunny be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	No	87.2¢	$1,750	+$6	Trade ↗
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Yes	83.5¢	$1,730	+$61	Trade ↗
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	88.5¢	$1,725	-$45	Trade ↗
Will Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	80.9¢	$1,717	+$54	Trade ↗
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	88.0¢	$1,688	-$10	Trade ↗
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	91.3¢	$1,612	+$3	Trade ↗
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	81.0¢	$1,590	-$30	Trade ↗
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?	No	72.7¢	$1,487	+$35	Trade ↗
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	74.7¢	$1,470	-$23	Trade ↗
Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?	Yes	85.6¢	$1,455	-$1	Trade ↗
Will Erling Haaland be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	No	87.6¢	$1,366	-$112	Trade ↗
Will Maura Sullivan be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?	Yes	81.0¢	$1,354	+$8	Trade ↗
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?	No	78.1¢	$1,306	-$228	Trade ↗
Will Tencent be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?	No	86.7¢	$1,268	-$33	Trade ↗
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	No	87.7¢	$1,268	-$48	Trade ↗
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?	Yes	60.3¢	$1,143	+$4	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?	No	41.7¢	$1,139	+$595	Trade ↗
Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?	Yes	35.3¢	$1,101	+$612	Trade ↗
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?	Yes	61.0¢	$1,090	-$130	Trade ↗
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	81.3¢	$1,084	+$28	Trade ↗
Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	74.7¢	$1,059	+$11	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	74.0¢	$1,020	-$58	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	55.0¢	$990	-$110	Trade ↗
Will Alibaba be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?	No	88.7¢	$979	-$74	Trade ↗
Will Oregon Ducks win the 2027 CFP National Championship?	No	88.5¢	$955	-$24	Trade ↗
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	84.7¢	$925	+$78	Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

Time	Market	Side	Outcome	Price	Size
9d ago	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	BUY	Yes	56.0¢	$15,260
9d ago	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	BUY	Yes	57.0¢	$21,150
9d ago	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	BUY	Yes	56.0¢	$17,849
12d ago	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?	BUY	No	99.0¢	$76,082
12d ago	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get at least 40 million views on day 1?	BUY	No	99.8¢	$12,131
17d ago	US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?	BUY	Yes	98.9¢	$13,418
20d ago	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	BUY	No	97.0¢	$23,462
30d ago	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	BUY	Yes	40.0¢	$11,737
30d ago	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	BUY	Yes	38.0¢	$15,200
30d ago	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	BUY	Yes	37.0¢	$47,706
30d ago	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	BUY	Yes	35.0¢	$28,583
33d ago	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	BUY	No	99.4¢	$44,730
33d ago	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	BUY	No	99.1¢	$44,595