Contestable-Parfait

0xc301c1e034e71e1a6ce9684f029c4674a00466aa· stats updated 18h ago

Realized PnL

-$18,739

closed + open positions

Return on capital

-2%

realized PnL ÷ capital deployed

Win rate

61%

39 of 64 resolved

Resolved markets

Portfolio value

$309,656

Capital deployed

$930,889

lifetime cost of all positions

Tracked whale volume

$84,792

volume seen by WhaleWatcher

Open positions

152

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 0.0/30Return 0.0/25Consistency 6.8/25Sample size 12.4/20Concentration 0.0Total 19.2 / 100

Current positions

Market	Outcome	Avg price	Value	Unrealized PnL	Trade
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	64.9¢	$62,228	+$558	Trade ↗
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	74.6¢	$32,031	+$750	Trade ↗
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	76.9¢	$23,588	+$1,953	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	Yes	64.1¢	$18,192	+$922	Trade ↗
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	51.0¢	$18,160	+$53	Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	98.1¢	$11,389	+$178	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	67.3¢	$10,558	-$128	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	63.0¢	$9,493	+$73	Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	75.0¢	$9,374	+$855	Trade ↗
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	24.2¢	$6,814	+$337	Trade ↗
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes	73.9¢	$6,624	+$308	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?	Yes	87.7¢	$6,033	-$14	Trade ↗
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	No	62.9¢	$5,982	-$567	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026?	No	89.8¢	$4,754	+$34	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	67.4¢	$4,591	-$62	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?	Yes	89.9¢	$4,452	+$6	Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	85.2¢	$4,113	+$196	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New York Attorney General election?	Yes	90.8¢	$3,279	+$45	Trade ↗
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	No	92.8¢	$3,267	-$24	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?	No	87.2¢	$3,264	+$11	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-15 House seat?	Yes	87.6¢	$3,106	-$40	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	63.2¢	$3,102	+$13	Trade ↗
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	No	98.9¢	$3,099	+$12	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	64.1¢	$2,766	-$25	Trade ↗
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	69.8¢	$2,723	+$64	Trade ↗
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	76.5¢	$2,520	+$212	Trade ↗
Will Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026?	Yes	85.6¢	$2,346	+$114	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	Yes	90.3¢	$2,255	+$30	Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	92.9¢	$2,079	+$138	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party win the TX-15 House seat?	No	87.0¢	$2,010	+$1	Trade ↗
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	89.8¢	$1,965	+$13	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Yes	75.8¢	$1,834	+$148	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	No	66.9¢	$1,720	+$2	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	No	85.5¢	$1,701	-$10	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 New York Attorney General election?	No	90.8¢	$1,689	+$22	Trade ↗
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	92.0¢	$1,520	+$8	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	18.7¢	$1,258	-$14	Trade ↗
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	47.5¢	$1,243	-$41	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	No	76.3¢	$1,200	+$91	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-35 House seat?	Yes	65.5¢	$1,148	-$1	Trade ↗
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	41.0¢	$933	+$22	Trade ↗
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	17.8¢	$921	+$56	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	No	89.7¢	$842	+$12	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?	No	17.6¢	$727	+$53	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	65.0¢	$698	-$5	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-01 House seat?	Yes	15.2¢	$657	+$223	Trade ↗
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	92.4¢	$644	-$3	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	28.2¢	$643	+$6	Trade ↗
NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?	No	73.3¢	$639	+$110	Trade ↗
Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	59.7¢	$629	+$38	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	86.7¢	$513	-$7	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party win the NC-01 House seat?	No	79.3¢	$438	+$9	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-01 House seat?	Yes	73.6¢	$436	+$40	Trade ↗
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	Yes	87.2¢	$421	+$48	Trade ↗
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	26.5¢	$419	-$0	Trade ↗
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	70.2¢	$415	+$5	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 4% and 6%?	No	92.5¢	$402	+$2	Trade ↗
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	47.0¢	$369	-$12	Trade ↗
Will the Mississippi 2026 Senate race be within 1%?	No	83.4¢	$330	+$37	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party win the TX-35 House seat?	No	64.8¢	$324	+$4	Trade ↗
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	No	74.2¢	$312	+$15	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party win the TX-09 House seat?	No	20.5¢	$301	+$20	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%?	No	96.0¢	$289	+$4	Trade ↗
Paxton flips Talarico for Texas Senate by November 2?	No	85.8¢	$286	+$29	Trade ↗
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	No	93.4¢	$285	+$5	Trade ↗
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	94.2¢	$282	+$1	Trade ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	8.2¢	$263	-$218	Trade ↗
Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	59.9¢	$258	+$18	Trade ↗
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	25.0¢	$255	+$5	Trade ↗
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	70.9¢	$254	+$6	Trade ↗
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	13.0¢	$245	-$1,110	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	No	29.0¢	$241	+$26	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 0% and 2%?	No	96.8¢	$232	-$0	Trade ↗
Will Democrats sweep the Alaska Senate and Governor elections?	Yes	70.2¢	$207	+$4	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	28.6¢	$201	-$1	Trade ↗
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	99.5¢	$200	+$1	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 4% and 6%?	No	98.2¢	$197	+$1	Trade ↗
Will Democrats sweep the Maine Senate and Governor elections?	Yes	61.7¢	$189	+$4	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	92.0¢	$187	+$3	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win Maricopa County in the Arizona governor race in 2026?	Yes	81.8¢	$182	+$19	Trade ↗
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?	No	90.0¢	$181	+$1	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-09 House seat?	Yes	18.0¢	$176	+$29	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win Tarrant County in the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	88.7¢	$170	-$7	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party win the NY-01 House seat?	No	16.0¢	$161	+$54	Trade ↗
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	7.8¢	$158	-$66	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win Maricopa County in the Arizona governor race in 2026?	No	81.1¢	$157	+$19	Trade ↗
Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	No	63.5¢	$142	+$9	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat?	Yes	13.0¢	$133	+$51	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	31.4¢	$121	+$2	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	7.2¢	$118	+$19	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	7.2¢	$113	+$18	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	No	37.0¢	$113	+$2	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by 6% or more?	No	99.4¢	$110	-$0	Trade ↗
Will Democrats sweep the Michigan Senate and Governor elections?	Yes	69.0¢	$104	-$2	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party win the MO-02 House seat?	Yes	31.6¢	$100	+$15	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	No	42.0¢	$94	+$1	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party win the MT-01 House seat?	Yes	45.7¢	$92	+$1	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%?	No	97.1¢	$91	+$1	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	No	27.0¢	$78	-$3	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	37.0¢	$75	+$1	Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

Time	Market	Side	Outcome	Price	Size
19h ago	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	BUY	Yes	75.3¢	$13,552
3d ago	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	BUY	Yes	65.0¢	$42,900
4d ago	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	BUY	Yes	64.0¢	$11,413
4d ago	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	BUY	Yes	74.0¢	$16,927