knrad

61Qualified whaleProven trader

0x4d0121458bb2f96c6440c0f3835d675ad3ce1645· stats updated 3d ago

Realized PnL

+$106,605

closed + open positions

Return on capital

realized PnL ÷ capital deployed

Win rate

100%

500 of 500 resolved

Resolved markets

500

Portfolio value

$93,284

Capital deployed

$2,111,203

lifetime cost of all positions

Tracked whale volume

$10,523

volume seen by WhaleWatcher

Open positions

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 11.8/30Return 4.2/25Consistency 25.0/25Sample size 20.0/20Concentration 0.0Total 61.0 / 100

Current positions

Market	Outcome	Avg price	Value	Unrealized PnL	Trade
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	77.9¢	$10,109	+$952	Trade ↗
Will Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	98.1¢	$9,355	-$6	Trade ↗
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	45.2¢	$7,688	+$3,228	Trade ↗
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	82.3¢	$6,739	+$840	Trade ↗
Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	77.8¢	$6,469	+$408	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	85.7¢	$5,573	+$413	Trade ↗
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?	No	85.3¢	$5,460	-$17	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?	Yes	94.5¢	$4,500	+$72	Trade ↗
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME Person of the Year 2026?	No	84.9¢	$4,076	-$42	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	91.0¢	$4,022	-$22	Trade ↗
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	50.0¢	$3,755	+$1,407	Trade ↗
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	73.7¢	$3,208	+$234	Trade ↗
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	91.6¢	$2,892	-$5	Trade ↗
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	59.1¢	$1,709	-$2,778	Trade ↗
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?	No	85.1¢	$1,703	+$170	Trade ↗
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Yes	86.3¢	$1,580	-$1,148	Trade ↗
Will Isabel Díaz Ayuso be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	99.0¢	$1,472	+$8	Trade ↗
Will Manuela Schwesig be the next Minister-President of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?	Yes	92.0¢	$1,072	+$50	Trade ↗
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	No	94.0¢	$1,050	+$6	Trade ↗
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	50.0¢	$942	-$1,407	Trade ↗
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	80.0¢	$850	-$39	Trade ↗
Will Christopher Nolan win Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	37.5¢	$720	+$19	Trade ↗
No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by December 31?	No	98.0¢	$568	-$5	Trade ↗
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	41.7¢	$525	+$54	Trade ↗
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	55.0¢	$475	-$24	Trade ↗
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	1.7¢	$464	+$261	Trade ↗
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?	No	74.4¢	$440	+$68	Trade ↗
Will Jordan Bardella leave the National Rally by December 31, 2026?	No	81.7¢	$420	+$66	Trade ↗
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	4.8¢	$367	+$23	Trade ↗
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	50.0¢	$357	-$51	Trade ↗
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026?	No	68.3¢	$357	+$34	Trade ↗
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	67.5¢	$355	+$68	Trade ↗
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?	No	85.3¢	$282	+$10	Trade ↗
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	No	31.0¢	$226	-$292	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	54.0¢	$215	+$48	Trade ↗
Andy Burnham out as UK PM by December 31?	No	90.5¢	$205	+$4	Trade ↗
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	69.3¢	$194	-$976	Trade ↗
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?	No	88.4¢	$190	+$13	Trade ↗
Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	No	92.3¢	$189	+$3	Trade ↗
Another Clacton by-election called in 2026?	No	89.0¢	$181	+$3	Trade ↗
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	19.6¢	$161	-$10	Trade ↗
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?	Yes	6.0¢	$155	-$52	Trade ↗
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?	No	85.5¢	$144	+$16	Trade ↗
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	22.6¢	$134	-$73	Trade ↗
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	3.2¢	$111	-$71	Trade ↗
Will voter turnout be between 62% and 64% in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	82.0¢	$102	+$12	Trade ↗
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	0.5¢	$101	+$76	Trade ↗
Will voter turnout be between 64% and 66% in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	80.4¢	$99	+$10	Trade ↗
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	12.5¢	$95	+$12	Trade ↗
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	2.1¢	$85	-$0	Trade ↗
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	88.0¢	$78	+$8	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Yes	73.0¢	$75	-$71	Trade ↗
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by December 31, 2026?	No	77.0¢	$74	+$14	Trade ↗
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	4.0¢	$73	+$14	Trade ↗
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by January 31, 2027?	Yes	59.0¢	$65	+$2	Trade ↗
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	0.8¢	$62	-$5	Trade ↗
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	2.3¢	$61	-$126	Trade ↗
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	79.0¢	$53	+$8	Trade ↗
French election called by December 31, 2026?	Yes	9.5¢	$53	-$29	Trade ↗
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	0.7¢	$52	+$16	Trade ↗
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	13.3¢	$51	+$4	Trade ↗
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	2.6¢	$48	+$5	Trade ↗
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	1.4¢	$43	-$4	Trade ↗
Doug Ford out as PC Party Leader by December 31?	No	69.0¢	$38	+$11	Trade ↗
Will Grüne be in the next Berlin state government?	No	6.9¢	$35	+$28	Trade ↗
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	1.6¢	$34	+$6	Trade ↗
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	0.9¢	$27	+$17	Trade ↗
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	2.5¢	$23	+$5	Trade ↗
Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	11.9¢	$19	-$165	Trade ↗
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	2.1¢	$16	-$7	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Yes	32.3¢	$15	-$29	Trade ↗
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	1.7¢	$13	-$22	Trade ↗
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	10.9¢	$13	-$4	Trade ↗
Will Carlos Cuerpo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	0.4¢	$12	-$7	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	35.0¢	$12	-$27	Trade ↗
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	0.1¢	$11	-$22	Trade ↗
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	0.6¢	$11	-$56	Trade ↗
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	0.4¢	$11	-$0	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota governor race in 2026?	Yes	93.0¢	$10	+$0	Trade ↗
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	0.8¢	$9	$0	Trade ↗
Will voter turnout be between 68% and 70% in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	8.6¢	$7	+$5	Trade ↗
Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2026?	Yes	16.4¢	$6	-$15	Trade ↗
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	1.2¢	$6	+$1	Trade ↗
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	0.7¢	$6	-$80	Trade ↗
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	1.0¢	$6	-$6	Trade ↗
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	1.2¢	$5	-$5	Trade ↗
Abiy Ahmed out as Prime Minister of Ethiopia in 2026?	No	81.0¢	$4	+$1	Trade ↗
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	0.2¢	$3	-$2	Trade ↗
Will François Hollande announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	No	63.0¢	$2	+$0	Trade ↗
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be TIME Person of the Year 2026?	Yes	3.1¢	$1	+$0	Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

Time	Market	Side	Outcome	Price	Size
14d ago	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	BUY	No	78.0¢	$10,523