debased

79Qualified whaleProven trader

0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1· stats updated 2d ago

Realized PnL

+$27,643,932

closed + open positions

Return on capital

realized PnL ÷ capital deployed

Win rate

100%

500 of 500 resolved

Resolved markets

500

Portfolio value

$660,483

Capital deployed

$316,517,407

lifetime cost of all positions

Tracked whale volume

$32,983

volume seen by WhaleWatcher

Open positions

131

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 30.0/30Return 7.3/25Consistency 25.0/25Sample size 20.0/20Concentration -3.6Total 78.7 / 100

Current positions

Market	Outcome	Avg price	Value	Unrealized PnL	Trade
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	50.0¢	$283,558	+$31,058	Trade ↗
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	50.0¢	$221,443	-$31,058	Trade ↗
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?	No	82.2¢	$25,865	+$3,605	Trade ↗
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	79.3¢	$15,363	-$327	Trade ↗
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	70.3¢	$14,976	+$253	Trade ↗
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	96.9¢	$9,918	+$166	Trade ↗
Plague pandemic in 2026?	No	95.1¢	$8,719	+$267	Trade ↗
New pandemic in 2026?	No	87.6¢	$7,446	+$636	Trade ↗
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	99.5¢	$6,957	+$17	Trade ↗
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	96.3¢	$6,541	+$76	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	90.0¢	$4,742	+$26	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	10.1¢	$4,231	-$1,485	Trade ↗
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	93.2¢	$4,032	+$191	Trade ↗
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	19.1¢	$3,830	+$569	Trade ↗
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	91.0¢	$2,706	+$100	Trade ↗
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	91.8¢	$2,234	+$86	Trade ↗
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	20.6¢	$2,035	-$459	Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	85.6¢	$1,890	+$243	Trade ↗
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	94.4¢	$1,700	+$44	Trade ↗
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	5.6¢	$1,659	-$912	Trade ↗
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	No	92.0¢	$1,609	+$73	Trade ↗
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	35.2¢	$1,558	-$763	Trade ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	92.0¢	$1,453	+$38	Trade ↗
Will Turkey join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	89.5¢	$1,369	+$94	Trade ↗
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	65.0¢	$1,210	+$202	Trade ↗
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	77.9¢	$1,180	-$30	Trade ↗
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	99.4¢	$1,107	+$3	Trade ↗
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	No	98.7¢	$1,102	+$5	Trade ↗
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	55.2¢	$1,042	-$183	Trade ↗
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	No	75.9¢	$1,029	+$170	Trade ↗
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	0.7¢	$852	-$2,297	Trade ↗
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	58.0¢	$850	+$206	Trade ↗
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	No	81.5¢	$828	+$141	Trade ↗
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	70.5¢	$827	+$145	Trade ↗
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	5.8¢	$792	-$44	Trade ↗
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	70.0¢	$778	+$176	Trade ↗
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	60.0¢	$761	+$94	Trade ↗
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026?	No	72.0¢	$758	+$25	Trade ↗
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	17.0¢	$758	+$22	Trade ↗
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	97.6¢	$748	+$1	Trade ↗
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	No	54.6¢	$705	+$310	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	30.0¢	$693	-$12	Trade ↗
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	6.5¢	$673	+$384	Trade ↗
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	73.1¢	$649	+$69	Trade ↗
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	6.9¢	$634	-$328	Trade ↗
Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	10.0¢	$583	+$28	Trade ↗
Weed rescheduled by December 31?	Yes	40.5¢	$560	-$1,548	Trade ↗
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	Yes	9.0¢	$541	+$343	Trade ↗
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	27.3¢	$498	-$455	Trade ↗
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	No	77.0¢	$458	-$6	Trade ↗
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	51.0¢	$415	+$189	Trade ↗
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	26.3¢	$377	+$166	Trade ↗
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	34.5¢	$347	-$1,833	Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	57.4¢	$322	+$3	Trade ↗
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	89.0¢	$273	+$22	Trade ↗
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	26.0¢	$270	+$24	Trade ↗
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	18.8¢	$194	-$452	Trade ↗
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	5.6¢	$164	+$24	Trade ↗
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	Yes	7.0¢	$143	+$18	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	62.0¢	$136	+$9	Trade ↗
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	11.0¢	$133	+$72	Trade ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	6.7¢	$120	-$2,187	Trade ↗
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	No	23.0¢	$106	+$80	Trade ↗
Will Los Angeles Clippers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	0.3¢	$94	-$94	Trade ↗
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	44.8¢	$78	-$71	Trade ↗
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	8.0¢	$74	-$17	Trade ↗
Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	2.8¢	$68	+$8	Trade ↗
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	0.6¢	$64	-$80	Trade ↗
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	3.7¢	$58	-$37	Trade ↗
Will Brooklyn Nets win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	0.1¢	$56	-$56	Trade ↗
Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	0.4¢	$51	+$10	Trade ↗
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	1.2¢	$40	-$274	Trade ↗
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	No	56.0¢	$33	-$32	Trade ↗
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	1.2¢	$32	-$79	Trade ↗
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?	Yes	5.7¢	$30	-$65	Trade ↗
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	Yes	13.7¢	$28	-$9	Trade ↗
Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	0.4¢	$26	-$197	Trade ↗
Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	0.4¢	$25	-$169	Trade ↗
Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	2.8¢	$18	-$42	Trade ↗
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Yes	26.3¢	$18	-$150	Trade ↗
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	20.0¢	$13	-$5,258	Trade ↗
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	16.0¢	$13	-$39	Trade ↗
Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	1.1¢	$12	-$78	Trade ↗
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	38.0¢	$11	+$3	Trade ↗
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	1.1¢	$10	-$22	Trade ↗
Will the Fed Hike-Hike-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?	Yes	7.9¢	$9	-$16	Trade ↗
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	Yes	9.9¢	$8	-$23	Trade ↗
Will Dallas Mavericks win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	0.5¢	$7	-$1	Trade ↗
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	31.0¢	$7	-$5	Trade ↗
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	0.4¢	$5	-$9	Trade ↗
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	2.2¢	$4	-$193	Trade ↗
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	2.2¢	$4	-$193	Trade ↗
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	2.2¢	$4	-$193	Trade ↗
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	2.2¢	$4	-$193	Trade ↗
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	2.2¢	$4	-$193	Trade ↗
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	2.2¢	$4	-$193	Trade ↗
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	2.2¢	$4	-$193	Trade ↗
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	2.2¢	$4	-$193	Trade ↗
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	2.2¢	$4	-$193	Trade ↗
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	2.2¢	$4	-$193	Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

Time	Market	Side	Outcome	Price	Size
34d ago	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	BUY	Yes	98.8¢	$10,849
45d ago	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	BUY	No	99.6¢	$22,133