GollumGekko

73Qualified whaleProven trader

0x08458f7e9d2858027de579e4c3ca305475496b6f· stats updated 2d ago

Realized PnL

+$485,022

closed + open positions

Return on capital

realized PnL ÷ capital deployed

Win rate

100%

500 of 500 resolved

Resolved markets

500

Portfolio value

$240,868

Capital deployed

$11,499,351

lifetime cost of all positions

Tracked whale volume

$18,267

volume seen by WhaleWatcher

Open positions

317

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 24.1/30Return 3.5/25Consistency 25.0/25Sample size 20.0/20Concentration 0.0Total 72.6 / 100

Current positions

Market	Outcome	Avg price	Value	Unrealized PnL	Trade
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	92.1¢	$33,268	+$507	Trade ↗
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	98.5¢	$20,758	-$3	Trade ↗
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	85.2¢	$13,152	-$1,399	Trade ↗
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	91.3¢	$12,829	+$196	Trade ↗
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	No	99.0¢	$10,754	-$58	Trade ↗
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	No	81.9¢	$9,324	+$1,523	Trade ↗
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	66.8¢	$7,443	+$190	Trade ↗
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	60.5¢	$7,295	+$234	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	67.5¢	$6,228	+$1,582	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	88.0¢	$5,406	-$94	Trade ↗
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	No	93.0¢	$5,346	+$106	Trade ↗
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	66.0¢	$4,845	+$607	Trade ↗
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	96.0¢	$4,526	+$52	Trade ↗
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	53.8¢	$3,802	-$252	Trade ↗
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	82.6¢	$3,732	+$106	Trade ↗
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	74.0¢	$3,399	+$59	Trade ↗
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	55.9¢	$2,847	+$1,006	Trade ↗
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	68.0¢	$2,829	+$60	Trade ↗
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	No	98.0¢	$2,491	+$41	Trade ↗
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	58.4¢	$2,490	-$448	Trade ↗
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	28.8¢	$2,463	+$700	Trade ↗
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	15.4¢	$2,434	+$154	Trade ↗
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	91.6¢	$2,382	+$23	Trade ↗
Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win less than 27% of all valid votes?	No	85.0¢	$2,110	-$364	Trade ↗
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	95.6¢	$2,081	+$24	Trade ↗
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	No	81.4¢	$2,075	+$40	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	49.6¢	$2,050	-$6	Trade ↗
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	98.2¢	$1,961	+$27	Trade ↗
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	No	84.1¢	$1,947	+$54	Trade ↗
Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?	Yes	37.3¢	$1,900	+$667	Trade ↗
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	84.4¢	$1,847	-$140	Trade ↗
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	No	65.7¢	$1,832	+$501	Trade ↗
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	67.0¢	$1,784	+$434	Trade ↗
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?	Yes	29.8¢	$1,756	-$2,126	Trade ↗
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	67.0¢	$1,752	+$133	Trade ↗
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	69.0¢	$1,688	-$38	Trade ↗
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	42.3¢	$1,430	-$1,758	Trade ↗
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	66.7¢	$1,410	+$241	Trade ↗
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	16.7¢	$1,401	+$1,075	Trade ↗
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	Yes	49.5¢	$1,391	+$1	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	51.0¢	$1,331	+$13	Trade ↗
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	25.9¢	$1,237	-$98	Trade ↗
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?	Yes	59.6¢	$1,228	-$13	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	86.3¢	$1,116	-$1,598	Trade ↗
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	66.2¢	$1,085	+$21	Trade ↗
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	91.0¢	$1,017	+$6	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	Yes	9.9¢	$1,014	-$48	Trade ↗
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	44.3¢	$984	-$1,045	Trade ↗
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	47.7¢	$939	-$4,178	Trade ↗
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	7.8¢	$922	+$10	Trade ↗
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	43.4¢	$835	-$106	Trade ↗
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	60.9¢	$803	-$32	Trade ↗
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	No	85.1¢	$769	+$50	Trade ↗
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	Yes	18.8¢	$758	+$258	Trade ↗
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	78.0¢	$748	+$9	Trade ↗
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	Yes	35.8¢	$734	-$489	Trade ↗
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	Yes	93.0¢	$670	+$7	Trade ↗
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	64.9¢	$665	+$201	Trade ↗
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by September 25, 2026?	No	11.7¢	$640	+$217	Trade ↗
Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes?	Yes	37.9¢	$636	+$94	Trade ↗
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	69.6¢	$631	+$29	Trade ↗
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	Yes	23.5¢	$615	-$90	Trade ↗
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	No	80.7¢	$609	+$31	Trade ↗
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	Yes	43.8¢	$594	+$73	Trade ↗
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	0.8¢	$593	+$553	Trade ↗
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	27.0¢	$560	-$83	Trade ↗
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) be in the next Swedish government?	No	89.8¢	$540	-$94	Trade ↗
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	Yes	35.4¢	$538	-$272	Trade ↗
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	16.0¢	$508	-$142	Trade ↗
Sweden Parliamentary Election: More Votes to MP or KD?	KD	43.6¢	$481	-$30	Trade ↗
Will Moderate Party (M) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes?	No	70.0¢	$460	+$22	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?	Yes	7.0¢	$458	+$153	Trade ↗
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	94.2¢	$450	+$14	Trade ↗
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	No	85.0¢	$448	+$23	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	50.0¢	$448	+$4	Trade ↗
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	1.0¢	$445	-$402	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)?	Yes	76.1¢	$439	-$91	Trade ↗
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	27.1¢	$433	+$48	Trade ↗
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	No	89.0¢	$421	+$20	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	Yes	4.9¢	$420	-$131	Trade ↗
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	70.7¢	$417	+$76	Trade ↗
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	33.7¢	$411	-$546	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Yes	71.3¢	$397	-$1,321	Trade ↗
Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win at least 20% of all valid votes?	No	61.8¢	$391	+$4	Trade ↗
Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win between 30% and 33% of all valid votes?	No	80.8¢	$386	+$51	Trade ↗
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	93.4¢	$379	+$11	Trade ↗
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	No	73.8¢	$378	+$58	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	No	70.0¢	$370	+$20	Trade ↗
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?	Yes	16.7¢	$370	+$90	Trade ↗
Sweden Parliamentary Election: More Votes to V or KD?	KD	38.7¢	$319	+$10	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day?	No	90.8¢	$308	+$9	Trade ↗
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	24.9¢	$291	-$148	Trade ↗
Will King Carl XVI Gustaf attend King Harald V's funeral?	Yes	97.0¢	$288	+$6	Trade ↗
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?	Yes	21.0¢	$285	-$30	Trade ↗
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	22.9¢	$271	-$225	Trade ↗
Will Left Party (V) win at least 9% of all valid votes?	No	81.4¢	$261	+$11	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	50.0¢	$250	+$2	Trade ↗
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	27.8¢	$246	-$301	Trade ↗
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	91.2¢	$241	+$3	Trade ↗
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31?	No	70.0¢	$239	+$71	Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

Time	Market	Side	Outcome	Price	Size
19d ago	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL	No	83.0¢	$18,267