GollumGekko

74Qualified whaleProven trader

0x08458f7e9d2858027de579e4c3ca305475496b6f· stats updated 9h ago

Realized PnL

+$537,848

closed + open positions

Return on capital

realized PnL ÷ capital deployed

Win rate

100%

500 of 500 resolved

Resolved markets

500

Portfolio value

$256,778

Capital deployed

$11,691,653

lifetime cost of all positions

Tracked whale volume

$32,585

volume seen by WhaleWatcher

Open positions

324

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 25.0/30Return 3.8/25Consistency 25.0/25Sample size 20.0/20Concentration 0.0Total 73.8 / 100

Current positions

Market	Outcome	Avg price	Value	Unrealized PnL	Trade
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	67.1¢	$19,163	+$1,169	Trade ↗
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	91.7¢	$14,728	+$128	Trade ↗
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	65.2¢	$11,059	+$210	Trade ↗
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	96.3¢	$9,715	+$85	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	90.8¢	$8,716	+$69	Trade ↗
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	79.6¢	$8,573	-$466	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	61.8¢	$8,471	+$229	Trade ↗
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	62.3¢	$7,626	+$21	Trade ↗
US recession by end of 2026?	No	87.3¢	$7,324	+$414	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	74.8¢	$5,949	+$52	Trade ↗
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	52.0¢	$5,802	+$1,232	Trade ↗
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	No	60.1¢	$5,643	+$184	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	Yes	92.4¢	$4,618	+$173	Trade ↗
Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	63.4¢	$3,981	-$189	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	No	60.4¢	$3,734	+$965	Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	66.5¢	$3,644	+$229	Trade ↗
No one announced as next James Bond?	No	76.8¢	$3,499	+$45	Trade ↗
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	68.2¢	$3,423	+$411	Trade ↗
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	77.3¢	$3,098	+$8	Trade ↗
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	40.6¢	$3,043	-$166	Trade ↗
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	78.4¢	$2,976	-$116	Trade ↗
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	92.8¢	$2,949	+$23	Trade ↗
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	No	75.6¢	$2,918	-$610	Trade ↗
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	50.7¢	$2,816	-$417	Trade ↗
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	50.3¢	$2,783	-$295	Trade ↗
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	86.0¢	$2,775	+$195	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Yes	55.8¢	$2,723	+$859	Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	60.8¢	$2,719	+$135	Trade ↗
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	Yes	69.0¢	$2,684	+$263	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	No	80.4¢	$2,628	+$81	Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?	No	56.3¢	$2,574	+$197	Trade ↗
Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium?	No	93.3¢	$2,515	-$49	Trade ↗
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	64.4¢	$2,410	+$713	Trade ↗
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	69.0¢	$2,388	+$663	Trade ↗
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	71.0¢	$2,314	+$233	Trade ↗
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	83.6¢	$2,266	+$52	Trade ↗
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	No	61.3¢	$2,123	-$30	Trade ↗
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	No	17.7¢	$2,115	+$412	Trade ↗
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	94.0¢	$2,100	+$11	Trade ↗
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Yes	76.4¢	$2,068	-$461	Trade ↗
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	No	67.7¢	$1,920	+$399	Trade ↗
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	88.5¢	$1,858	-$22	Trade ↗
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	No	85.0¢	$1,809	+$164	Trade ↗
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	7.8¢	$1,736	-$332	Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	77.6¢	$1,704	+$192	Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	83.4¢	$1,669	+$266	Trade ↗
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	17.8¢	$1,666	+$1,317	Trade ↗
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	69.7¢	$1,651	+$41	Trade ↗
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?	No	90.0¢	$1,523	+$25	Trade ↗
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	Yes	20.7¢	$1,449	+$225	Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	46.7¢	$1,392	+$129	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	73.0¢	$1,333	-$28	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	No	55.0¢	$1,330	+$230	Trade ↗
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	26.0¢	$1,250	-$50	Trade ↗
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?	No	97.0¢	$1,241	+$9	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	63.6¢	$1,236	-$22	Trade ↗
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	45.3¢	$1,230	+$352	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	51.0¢	$1,182	+$276	Trade ↗
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?	Yes	29.8¢	$1,179	-$2,525	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	No	73.7¢	$1,172	+$57	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	No	57.8¢	$1,134	+$106	Trade ↗
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	16.7¢	$1,122	+$82	Trade ↗
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	No	84.4¢	$1,086	+$96	Trade ↗
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?	No	73.4¢	$1,033	+$15	Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	95.4¢	$997	+$43	Trade ↗
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	Yes	63.4¢	$980	+$198	Trade ↗
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	2.0¢	$943	-$11	Trade ↗
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?	Yes	11.3¢	$867	-$353	Trade ↗
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	15.1¢	$857	+$257	Trade ↗
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	No	85.1¢	$842	+$122	Trade ↗
Will Warsh be out as Fed Chair by December 31, 2026?	No	96.2¢	$830	+$19	Trade ↗
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	42.0¢	$814	+$184	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	No	83.0¢	$800	-$30	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	54.9¢	$781	+$136	Trade ↗
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	68.3¢	$762	+$197	Trade ↗
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) be in the next Swedish government?	No	89.8¢	$665	+$32	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	54.5¢	$650	+$117	Trade ↗
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	66.1¢	$620	+$157	Trade ↗
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	33.9¢	$585	-$636	Trade ↗
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	No	84.6¢	$564	+$54	Trade ↗
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	No	80.7¢	$542	+$5	Trade ↗
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in October?	Yes	4.9¢	$541	+$207	Trade ↗
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	No	92.0¢	$538	+$27	Trade ↗
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	15.0¢	$522	+$22	Trade ↗
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	69.4¢	$470	+$107	Trade ↗
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	49.5¢	$468	-$15	Trade ↗
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?	No	47.2¢	$467	+$112	Trade ↗
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	0.5¢	$463	+$435	Trade ↗
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	71.1¢	$462	+$46	Trade ↗
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	60.0¢	$455	-$145	Trade ↗
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in October?	Yes	3.5¢	$450	+$100	Trade ↗
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	No	74.0¢	$413	+$3	Trade ↗
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	93.4¢	$384	+$16	Trade ↗
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	19.0¢	$368	-$32	Trade ↗
Rubio flips Vance for GOP nomination by October 31?	No	96.7¢	$363	+$6	Trade ↗
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	Yes	26.0¢	$351	-$84	Trade ↗
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2027?	No	76.5¢	$337	+$8	Trade ↗
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	Yes	23.5¢	$326	-$203	Trade ↗
Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?	No	83.0¢	$326	-$6	Trade ↗
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?	Yes	2.4¢	$316	-$238	Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

Time	Market	Side	Outcome	Price	Size
27d ago	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	SELL	Yes	84.2¢	$14,318
64d ago	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL	No	83.0¢	$18,267