ethBELIVER

44Qualified whale

0x05f6cb63d4ffdfaecd7ad8acd0765b6f6a5a25a1· stats updated 1d ago

Realized PnL

+$204,009

closed + open positions

Return on capital

11%

realized PnL ÷ capital deployed

Win rate

79%

11 of 14 resolved

Resolved markets

Portfolio value

$344,525

Capital deployed

$1,850,343

lifetime cost of all positions

Tracked whale volume

$291,991

volume seen by WhaleWatcher

Open positions

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 17.1/30Return 9.2/25Consistency 17.9/25Sample size 2.3/20Concentration -2.8Total 43.5 / 100

Current positions

Market	Outcome	Avg price	Value	Unrealized PnL	Trade
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	45.9¢	$134,951	+$16,938	Trade ↗
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	48.6¢	$67,193	+$7,285	Trade ↗
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	65.9¢	$28,814	+$1,868	Trade ↗
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	15.0¢	$25,311	+$817	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	No	88.0¢	$17,468	+$668	Trade ↗
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	41.3¢	$15,382	+$3,291	Trade ↗
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	69.7¢	$15,257	+$2,755	Trade ↗
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	61.0¢	$8,618	-$530	Trade ↗
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	45.7¢	$7,146	+$801	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	72.0¢	$4,230	-$90	Trade ↗
Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	23.8¢	$3,732	+$2,555	Trade ↗
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	70.5¢	$3,729	+$338	Trade ↗
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	39.0¢	$2,578	-$423	Trade ↗
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	43.3¢	$1,958	+$601	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	Yes	5.0¢	$1,833	-$579	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	50.0¢	$1,359	-$72	Trade ↗
Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Yes	46.0¢	$950	-$531	Trade ↗
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	No	46.0¢	$856	+$390	Trade ↗
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	29.0¢	$766	+$472	Trade ↗
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	33.8¢	$618	-$927	Trade ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	0.7¢	$605	-$204	Trade ↗
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	3.7¢	$400	-$352	Trade ↗
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	20.3¢	$390	-$492	Trade ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	27.0¢	$380	+$44	Trade ↗
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	3.6¢	$1	-$7	Trade ↗
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?	No	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?	Yes	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	No	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	19.1¢	$0	-$26,273	Trade ↗
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs	TEAM VISION	56.1¢	$0	-$4,921	Trade ↗
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?	Yes	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	No	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals	No	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	Yes	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	Yes	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
Will Trump dance during WHCA Dinner on April 25?	Yes	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	No	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 7?	Up	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24?	No	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026	No	51.0¢	$0	-$22,208	Trade ↗
US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026?	Yes	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	Yes	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	No	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026	Yes	11.8¢	$0	-$1,194	Trade ↗
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Playoffs	Team Yandex	31.6¢	$0	-$25,042	Trade ↗
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be below 1%?	Yes	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?	No	13.0¢	$0	-$41	Trade ↗
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	No	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1.5% and 2%?	Yes	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?	Yes	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?	Yes	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?	Yes	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	Yes	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
Monterrey Open: Antonia Ruzic vs Nikola Bartunkova	Antonia Ruzic	15.0¢	$0	-$45	Trade ↗
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	Yes	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026	Yes	5.4¢	$0	-$266	Trade ↗
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?	Yes	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	Yes	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5?	Yes	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
49ers vs. Raiders	Raiders	50.0¢	$0	-$19,565	Trade ↗
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?	Yes	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?	Yes	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	Yes	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	Yes	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	Yes	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	No	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	Yes	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?	Yes	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	No	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	No	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?	No	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	No	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q2 2026	Yes	10.4¢	$0	-$218	Trade ↗
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner	FUT Esports	48.0¢	$0	-$4,679	Trade ↗
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Playoffs	Team Falcons	45.0¢	$0	-$10,350	Trade ↗
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be above 2%?	Yes	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?	Yes	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
Dota 2: Iron Wing vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Playoffs	Iron Wing	42.0¢	$0	-$8,400	Trade ↗
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	Yes	0.0¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

Time	Market	Side	Outcome	Price	Size
7d ago	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	BUY	No	88.0¢	$16,800
9d ago	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	BUY	Yes	42.0¢	$34,461
9d ago	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	BUY	Yes	53.0¢	$14,918
9d ago	Fed rate hike in 2026?	BUY	Yes	67.0¢	$11,343
13d ago	Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants	BUY	San Francisco Giants	44.0¢	$14,960
13d ago	49ers vs. Raiders	BUY	Raiders	50.0¢	$10,180
13d ago	Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group B	SELL	Team Falcons	74.4¢	$15,186
13d ago	Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group B	BUY	Team Falcons	80.0¢	$24,000
13d ago	Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group B	BUY	Team Falcons	80.0¢	$24,000
13d ago	Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group B	BUY	Team Falcons	80.0¢	$32,000
13d ago	Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals	BUY	Washington Nationals	70.0¢	$14,000
13d ago	Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals	BUY	Washington Nationals	70.0¢	$17,500
13d ago	Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals	BUY	Washington Nationals	68.0¢	$13,600
13d ago	Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals	BUY	Washington Nationals	68.0¢	$20,400
14d ago	Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs M80 - Map 1 Winner	BUY	Natus Vincere	55.0¢	$11,774
16d ago	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	BUY	Yes	14.0¢	$16,869