WhaleWatcher

elmcap2

71Qualified whaleProven trader
0xed107a85a4585a381e48c7f7ca4144909e7dd2e5· stats updated 1d ago
Realized PnL
+$2,588,355
closed + open positions
Return on capital
1%
realized PnL ÷ capital deployed
Win rate
100%
500 of 500 resolved
Resolved markets
500
Portfolio value
$6,611,191
Capital deployed
$392,610,353
lifetime cost of all positions
Tracked whale volume
$2,021,766
volume seen by WhaleWatcher
Open positions
106

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 30.0/30Return 0.6/25Consistency 25.0/25Sample size 20.0/20Concentration -4.6Total 70.9 / 100

Current positions

MarketOutcomeAvg priceValueUnrealized PnLTrade
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No50.0¢$3,178,000+$1,178,000Trade ↗
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes50.0¢$822,000-$1,178,000Trade ↗
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No95.5¢$370,073-$1,976Trade ↗
Trump out as President before 2027?No92.6¢$343,075+$11,143Trade ↗
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?Yes96.9¢$242,703+$4,206Trade ↗
Xi Jinping out before 2027?No96.9¢$227,444-$535Trade ↗
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?No98.7¢$221,593+$1,880Trade ↗
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No88.5¢$194,233+$18,049Trade ↗
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?No99.6¢$149,775+$425Trade ↗
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No91.4¢$120,476+$7,737Trade ↗
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?No96.3¢$74,690+$495Trade ↗
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?No99.5¢$53,831+$134Trade ↗
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No97.0¢$43,659+$338Trade ↗
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?No90.6¢$41,177+$2,994Trade ↗
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?No87.7¢$32,077+$1,667Trade ↗
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?No98.6¢$30,150+$265Trade ↗
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes85.8¢$28,087-$1,927Trade ↗
Modi out by December 31, 2026?No94.6¢$28,085+$534Trade ↗
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes96.7¢$25,249+$66Trade ↗
Will Todd Achilles win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?No93.6¢$24,275+$875Trade ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?No99.6¢$24,067+$36Trade ↗
Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026?No90.0¢$22,766+$1,824Trade ↗
GTA VI released by October 31?No98.3¢$21,465+$349Trade ↗
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?No88.9¢$19,737-$2,074Trade ↗
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? No87.8¢$17,628+$813Trade ↗
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?No56.4¢$15,732+$6,084Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?Yes93.5¢$14,565+$540Trade ↗
China x Japan military clash before 2027?No92.5¢$13,543+$471Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?Yes95.1¢$13,366+$75Trade ↗
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026?No90.8¢$12,731+$833Trade ↗
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?No95.8¢$12,206+$231Trade ↗
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?No94.3¢$11,916+$297Trade ↗
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?No91.7¢$8,748+$498Trade ↗
Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026?No93.5¢$8,722+$220Trade ↗
Major CEX insolvent in 2026?No91.9¢$8,141+$414Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New York Attorney General election?Yes91.7¢$6,503+$26Trade ↗
Will Trump pardon Himself before 2027?No93.2¢$6,371+$315Trade ↗
Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?Yes89.1¢$6,063+$219Trade ↗
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by October 31?No97.2¢$5,951+$134Trade ↗
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31?No92.0¢$5,392+$244Trade ↗
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?No94.6¢$5,324-$5Trade ↗
UFC 333: Azamat Murzakanov vs. Dominick Reyes (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)Azamat Murzakanov65.0¢$4,838-$37Trade ↗
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?No84.6¢$4,700+$470Trade ↗
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?No92.1¢$4,667+$164Trade ↗
UFC 333: Nikita Krylov vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev82.0¢$4,640+$28Trade ↗
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?No85.5¢$3,839+$404Trade ↗
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Yes92.0¢$3,795+$61Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?Yes94.6¢$3,788+$6Trade ↗
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?No91.5¢$3,685+$215Trade ↗
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch?No93.9¢$3,343+$56Trade ↗
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2026?No92.9¢$2,892+$77Trade ↗
Will Dreamcash launch a token by December 31, 2026?No87.8¢$2,587+$105Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?No93.0¢$2,412+$83Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?No95.0¢$2,391+$13Trade ↗
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?No93.2¢$2,242+$87Trade ↗
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?No86.2¢$2,003+$198Trade ↗
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?No90.3¢$1,942+$135Trade ↗
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?No92.5¢$1,935+$85Trade ↗
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?No94.0¢$1,926+$46Trade ↗
Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027?No86.6¢$1,920+$148Trade ↗
Will Trump pardon Do Kwon before 2027?No94.0¢$1,916+$63Trade ↗
Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026?No90.1¢$1,905+$123Trade ↗
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch?No94.7¢$1,818+$42Trade ↗
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31?No92.1¢$1,810-$33Trade ↗
Will Trump resign before 2027?No96.8¢$1,799+$20Trade ↗
Will Unit launch a token by December 31, 2026?No91.8¢$1,756+$94Trade ↗
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Yes49.5¢$1,725-$5,700Trade ↗
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?No95.0¢$1,642+$64Trade ↗
Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?No87.5¢$1,614-$20Trade ↗
Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026?No94.1¢$1,524+$29Trade ↗
Will Warsh be out as Fed Chair by December 31, 2026?No96.0¢$1,492+$35Trade ↗
Will Islam Makhachev be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026?Yes90.5¢$1,418+$60Trade ↗
Base FDV above $500M one day after launch?Yes60.0¢$1,296-$579Trade ↗
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?No74.8¢$1,169+$252Trade ↗
UFC 333: Daniel Santos vs. Bolaji Oki (Featherweight, Early Prelims)Bolaji Oki49.0¢$1,111+$33Trade ↗
UFC 333: Abus Magomedov vs. Cam Rowston (Middleweight, Prelims)Abus Magomedov52.0¢$1,092+$10Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the New Jersey Senate race in 2026?Yes97.1¢$1,091+$12Trade ↗
Waymo IPO before 2027?No80.2¢$1,050+$191Trade ↗
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?No96.7¢$1,008+$18Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the New Mexico governor race in 2026?Yes94.0¢$1,000+$13Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts Senate race in 2026?Yes98.0¢$981+$1Trade ↗
Will Fomo launch a token by December 31 2026?No79.4¢$965+$171Trade ↗
Will DeepSeek IPO by December 31, 2026?No90.0¢$950+$50Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?No79.8¢$949+$149Trade ↗
Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?No85.4¢$770+$63Trade ↗
Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2026?No93.8¢$735+$27Trade ↗
US national Ethereum reserve before 2027?No95.7¢$669+$9Trade ↗
Will QFEX launch a token by December 31, 2026?No93.1¢$618+$24Trade ↗
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027?Yes59.0¢$563-$257Trade ↗
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027?Yes43.8¢$495-$588Trade ↗
Phoebe Gates arrested by December 31?No95.0¢$466+$10Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Alabama Senate race in 2026?Yes97.9¢$445+$5Trade ↗
Will Kanye West and Bianca Censori separate in 2026?No81.7¢$428+$40Trade ↗
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by November 30?No95.8¢$423+$5Trade ↗
Record crypto liquidation in 2026?No90.0¢$289+$13Trade ↗
Obama arrested before 2027?No93.0¢$200+$11Trade ↗
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?No91.5¢$175+$12Trade ↗
Anduril Industries IPO before 2027?No81.9¢$170+$28Trade ↗
Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027?No96.5¢$147+$2Trade ↗
Will Lisa Cook be arrested before 2027?No94.0¢$118+$3Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

TimeMarketSideOutcomePriceSize
1d agoWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?BUYYes94.0¢$210,870
1d agoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?BUYNo94.0¢$172,175
1d agoWill the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?BUYYes98.6¢$18,188
5d agoWill Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?BUYYes96.8¢$22,573
8d agoWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?BUYNo95.0¢$68,163
8d agoXi Jinping out before 2027?BUYNo97.2¢$53,725
8d agoKanye West performs in Russia by October 31?BUYNo98.8¢$19,460
12d agoWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?BUYNo99.5¢$18,388
13d agoModi out by December 31, 2026?BUYNo94.0¢$17,657
18d agoWill the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?BUYYes98.0¢$37,781
18d agoWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?SELLNo92.0¢$14,936
25d agoWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?BUYNo99.8¢$237,733
25d agoWill Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?BUYNo99.9¢$11,031
25d agoWill Tempo launch a token by September 30, 2026?BUYNo99.9¢$12,088
29d agoWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?BUYNo96.5¢$11,023
30d agoWill the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?BUYYes98.0¢$24,901
32d agoMitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?BUYNo90.0¢$11,581
32d agoWill Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?BUYNo96.5¢$27,015
32d agoTrump out as President before 2027?BUYNo95.0¢$14,630
34d agoGTA VI released by October 31?BUYNo99.0¢$13,316
34d agoWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?BUYNo96.0¢$11,696
35d agoWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?BUYNo95.7¢$10,644
36d agoWill Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?BUYNo95.9¢$15,266
38d agoWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?BUYNo95.9¢$37,453
38d agoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUYNo99.4¢$213,576