0xecaa8806a9a05049d7d5260a33dc924220e377a

42Qualified whaleProven trader

0xe234959595e01dacd391a9502a6ad0edf4e3304a· stats updated 20h ago

Realized PnL

+$166,663

closed + open positions

Return on capital

realized PnL ÷ capital deployed

Win rate

59%

185 of 314 resolved

Resolved markets

314

Portfolio value

$199,587

Capital deployed

$13,392,780

lifetime cost of all positions

Tracked whale volume

$68,758

volume seen by WhaleWatcher

Open positions

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 15.4/30Return 1.0/25Consistency 5.6/25Sample size 20.0/20Concentration 0.0Total 42.0 / 100

Current positions

Market	Outcome	Avg price	Value	Unrealized PnL	Trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	66.4¢	$44,071	+$7,247	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	44.8¢	$15,750	+$2,309	Trade ↗
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	34.4¢	$13,515	+$3,309	Trade ↗
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	17.0¢	$10,486	-$1,808	Trade ↗
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	No	96.4¢	$8,930	+$238	Trade ↗
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	70.3¢	$7,282	+$217	Trade ↗
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	16.2¢	$7,264	-$834	Trade ↗
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	66.6¢	$6,943	+$652	Trade ↗
US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?	No	95.3¢	$6,034	+$93	Trade ↗
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	71.9¢	$5,385	+$324	Trade ↗
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	48.5¢	$5,050	+$202	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	51.7¢	$4,950	-$221	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	82.0¢	$4,925	+$202	Trade ↗
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	No	62.6¢	$4,175	+$1,045	Trade ↗
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	No	37.3¢	$3,925	+$2,062	Trade ↗
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	57.1¢	$3,675	-$325	Trade ↗
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?	Yes	60.3¢	$3,576	+$382	Trade ↗
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	26.4¢	$2,823	-$347	Trade ↗
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	No	92.8¢	$2,759	+$21	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	63.4¢	$2,621	+$120	Trade ↗
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?	No	92.5¢	$2,413	+$134	Trade ↗
LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	27.6¢	$2,390	-$96	Trade ↗
LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch?	Yes	50.6¢	$2,300	-$229	Trade ↗
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	No	58.5¢	$2,147	+$89	Trade ↗
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?	No	79.6¢	$2,014	+$343	Trade ↗
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	17.0¢	$1,776	-$387	Trade ↗
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	Yes	9.3¢	$1,762	-$428	Trade ↗
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?	No	45.9¢	$1,519	-$12	Trade ↗
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	10.5¢	$1,425	-$156	Trade ↗
Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?	No	97.6¢	$1,418	+$24	Trade ↗
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?	Yes	49.5¢	$1,228	+$172	Trade ↗
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	29.2¢	$1,058	-$2,197	Trade ↗
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?	No	93.0¢	$993	+$63	Trade ↗
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	26.9¢	$934	-$927	Trade ↗
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?	No	72.0¢	$864	+$149	Trade ↗
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	5.2¢	$855	-$715	Trade ↗
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	82.0¢	$834	+$14	Trade ↗
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	77.9¢	$811	-$37	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	Yes	10.6¢	$735	-$302	Trade ↗
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	Yes	15.0¢	$725	-$25	Trade ↗
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	No	4.5¢	$695	-$52	Trade ↗
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	No	84.8¢	$562	+$21	Trade ↗
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	8.8¢	$472	-$640	Trade ↗
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	82.0¢	$471	+$30	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	Yes	3.9¢	$445	-$176	Trade ↗
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30?	Yes	66.8¢	$424	-$780	Trade ↗
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	5.7¢	$390	-$912	Trade ↗
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?	Yes	34.8¢	$286	-$121	Trade ↗
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?	No	86.3¢	$281	+$27	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	Yes	20.0¢	$280	-$40	Trade ↗
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026?	No	21.0¢	$270	-$150	Trade ↗
Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,000?	Yes	53.8¢	$262	-$292	Trade ↗
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026?	No	97.3¢	$237	-$3	Trade ↗
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 15?	Yes	26.1¢	$230	-$293	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	15.0¢	$230	-$70	Trade ↗
Will the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by October 31, 2026?	No	71.6¢	$207	+$34	Trade ↗
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	7.0¢	$204	+$162	Trade ↗
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	23.7¢	$175	+$12	Trade ↗
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	3.1¢	$164	-$86	Trade ↗
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	19.6¢	$163	-$219	Trade ↗
Will the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by December 31, 2026?	No	44.8¢	$127	+$40	Trade ↗
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Yes	80.5¢	$103	-$222	Trade ↗
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes	36.9¢	$91	+$4	Trade ↗
Trump renames New Mexico to New America by September 30, 2026?	Yes	11.0¢	$90	-$130	Trade ↗
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	No	13.4¢	$78	-$596	Trade ↗
Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	2.5¢	$75	-$172	Trade ↗
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	17.2¢	$43	-$16	Trade ↗
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	Yes	17.0¢	$37	-$23	Trade ↗
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	3.1¢	$28	-$222	Trade ↗
Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	3.1¢	$20	-$230	Trade ↗
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be 9% or higher?	Yes	0.1¢	$14	+$13	Trade ↗
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?	Yes	22.9¢	$13	-$11	Trade ↗
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	3.1¢	$12	-$238	Trade ↗
Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	46.0¢	$4	-$2	Trade ↗
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	3.1¢	$4	-$246	Trade ↗
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	3.1¢	$4	-$246	Trade ↗
Will Tencent have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	3.1¢	$4	-$246	Trade ↗
Will Nvidia have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	3.1¢	$4	-$246	Trade ↗
Will StepFun have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	3.1¢	$4	-$246	Trade ↗
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	3.1¢	$4	-$246	Trade ↗
Will Thinky have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	3.1¢	$4	-$246	Trade ↗
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	3.1¢	$4	-$246	Trade ↗
Will MiniMax have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	3.1¢	$4	-$246	Trade ↗
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	3.1¢	$4	-$246	Trade ↗
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	3.1¢	$4	-$246	Trade ↗
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	3.1¢	$4	-$246	Trade ↗
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	3.1¢	$4	-$246	Trade ↗
Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	3.1¢	$4	-$246	Trade ↗
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	3.1¢	$4	-$246	Trade ↗
Will LAPTOP not launch by December 31?	Yes	3.0¢	$4	-$8	Trade ↗
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	25.7¢	$1	-$0	Trade ↗
Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026?	Yes	30.0¢	$1	-$1	Trade ↗
Israel closes its airspace by June 14?	Yes	5.6¢	$0	-$723	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 8, 2026?	Yes	10.0¢	$0	-$500	Trade ↗
Will Warsh say "Dissent" during July Press Conference?	Yes	12.9¢	$0	-$14	Trade ↗
Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?	Yes	0.2¢	$0	-$168	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	Yes	13.9¢	$0	-$974	Trade ↗
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	19.7¢	$0	-$2,948	Trade ↗
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primary?	No	34.9¢	$0	-$68	Trade ↗
Will Steve Witkoff visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	No	5.9¢	$0	-$27	Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

Time	Market	Side	Outcome	Price	Size
13d ago	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL	No	86.0¢	$22,901
14d ago	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	BUY	No	66.0¢	$11,352
15d ago	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY	No	84.0¢	$22,368
29d ago	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	SELL	No	53.0¢	$12,137