WhaleWatcher

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05

43Qualified whaleProven trader
0xe234959595e01dacd391a9502a6ad0edf4e3304a· stats updated 1d ago
Realized PnL
+$242,480
closed + open positions
Return on capital
1%
realized PnL ÷ capital deployed
Win rate
56%
256 of 460 resolved
Resolved markets
460
Portfolio value
$184,756
Capital deployed
$19,590,912
lifetime cost of all positions
Tracked whale volume
$208,202
volume seen by WhaleWatcher
Open positions
91

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 18.5/30Return 1.0/25Consistency 3.5/25Sample size 20.0/20Concentration 0.0Total 43.0 / 100

Current positions

MarketOutcomeAvg priceValueUnrealized PnLTrade
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No59.1¢$32,360+$2,264Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes56.8¢$23,498+$3,716Trade ↗
Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?No69.7¢$21,300+$400Trade ↗
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes71.3¢$14,143+$2,964Trade ↗
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes20.7¢$9,382-$598Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?No25.8¢$7,689-$1,533Trade ↗
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No20.0¢$7,683+$27Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes66.8¢$7,559-$398Trade ↗
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes54.5¢$4,761-$758Trade ↗
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?No48.2¢$4,735-$81Trade ↗
NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?No81.0¢$3,653+$488Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?No47.2¢$3,255-$361Trade ↗
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Yes15.6¢$2,743+$225Trade ↗
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Yes12.0¢$2,700+$294Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Yes47.0¢$2,550-$270Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes31.7¢$2,220+$524Trade ↗
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?Yes19.5¢$2,220-$120Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Yes65.0¢$2,082-$16Trade ↗
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?No28.0¢$2,040-$200Trade ↗
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Yes13.0¢$2,025+$75Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Yes5.1¢$1,860+$287Trade ↗
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?No82.0¢$1,822+$182Trade ↗
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?No29.0¢$1,739-$663Trade ↗
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Yes11.2¢$1,729-$3,954Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?No69.4¢$1,495+$164Trade ↗
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in October?Yes5.1¢$1,200+$435Trade ↗
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Yes10.4¢$1,182+$551Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?No30.0¢$1,170+$270Trade ↗
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30?Yes10.0¢$1,167-$130Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Yes29.0¢$1,155+$285Trade ↗
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Yes23.8¢$1,131-$323Trade ↗
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Yes67.8¢$833-$116Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Yes13.0¢$820+$300Trade ↗
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?No25.3¢$779-$494Trade ↗
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes0.8¢$720+$433Trade ↗
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Yes16.4¢$650-$4,427Trade ↗
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?Yes62.0¢$639+$118Trade ↗
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes2.7¢$550+$10Trade ↗
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?Yes13.9¢$499-$903Trade ↗
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?Yes21.4¢$432-$43Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?No12.0¢$416-$1,172Trade ↗
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?Yes9.0¢$380+$21Trade ↗
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?Yes34.8¢$339-$68Trade ↗
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?Yes64.7¢$325+$111Trade ↗
US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?Yes4.8¢$295-$12Trade ↗
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?No87.0¢$292+$31Trade ↗
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?No86.3¢$284+$30Trade ↗
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Yes11.4¢$256-$558Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?No8.0¢$240+$80Trade ↗
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Yes4.0¢$237-$163Trade ↗
Will the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by December 31, 2026?No50.0¢$203+$63Trade ↗
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?No92.8¢$174+$11Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?No3.8¢$160-$601Trade ↗
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?Yes3.5¢$152-$215Trade ↗
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?Yes20.0¢$128-$32Trade ↗
Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?Yes9.0¢$98-$173Trade ↗
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Yes6.5¢$97-$147Trade ↗
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?Yes37.0¢$86-$119Trade ↗
Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes1.2¢$80-$40Trade ↗
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes44.5¢$51-$298Trade ↗
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?Yes23.0¢$41+$8Trade ↗
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?Yes0.2¢$34-$3Trade ↗
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?Yes21.7¢$34-$579Trade ↗
Will Valve officially release Deadlock before 2027?No16.0¢$26+$21Trade ↗
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?Yes13.7¢$24-$212Trade ↗
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes1.8¢$20+$2Trade ↗
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes22.9¢$15-$10Trade ↗
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?Yes23.7¢$15-$59Trade ↗
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes3.0¢$14-$106Trade ↗
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?No41.4¢$10-$6Trade ↗
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?Yes0.1¢$10-$19Trade ↗
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes1.8¢$9-$9Trade ↗
Will Richard Grayson win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes3.4¢$5-$328Trade ↗
Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes3.4¢$5-$328Trade ↗
Will Dustin Darden win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes3.4¢$5-$328Trade ↗
Will Ann Diener win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes3.4¢$5-$328Trade ↗
Will David Leslie win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes3.4¢$5-$328Trade ↗
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes1.8¢$3-$15Trade ↗
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be 9% or higher?Yes0.1¢$3+$2Trade ↗
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes1.8¢$2-$16Trade ↗
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes1.8¢$2-$16Trade ↗
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes1.8¢$2-$16Trade ↗
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes1.8¢$2-$16Trade ↗
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes1.8¢$1-$17Trade ↗
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes1.8¢$1-$17Trade ↗
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes1.8¢$1-$17Trade ↗
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes1.8¢$1-$17Trade ↗
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes1.8¢$1-$17Trade ↗
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes1.8¢$1-$17Trade ↗
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes1.8¢$1-$17Trade ↗
Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026?Yes30.0¢$0-$2Trade ↗
Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?Yes0.2¢$0-$168Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Yes11.9¢$0-$838Trade ↗
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes19.7¢$0-$2,948Trade ↗
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?Yes2.9¢$0-$119Trade ↗
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primary?No34.9¢$0-$68Trade ↗
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Yes3.1¢$0-$250Trade ↗
Will Steve Witkoff visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?No5.9¢$0-$27Trade ↗
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Yes3.1¢$0-$250Trade ↗
Will the International Association of Judges win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes1.4¢$0-$429Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

TimeMarketSideOutcomePriceSize
3d ago2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseSELLNo92.0¢$11,476
3d ago2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseSELLNo92.0¢$13,924
9d agoWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUYNo84.0¢$21,000
29d agoStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?BUYNo79.0¢$23,544
36d agoWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?SELLYes76.0¢$15,639
36d agoWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?SELLYes77.8¢$15,562
37d agoWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?SELLYes76.0¢$15,200
37d agoWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?BUYYes77.0¢$23,100
59d agoWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?SELLNo86.0¢$22,901
59d agoStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?BUYNo66.0¢$11,352
60d agoWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUYNo84.0¢$22,368
75d agoStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?SELLNo53.0¢$12,137