zthunderfury

32Qualified whaleProven trader

0xc682d7943aad07c246986a7aa2989cfcb17817bb· stats updated 5d ago

Realized PnL

+$30,407

closed + open positions

Return on capital

realized PnL ÷ capital deployed

Win rate

67%

333 of 498 resolved

Resolved markets

498

Portfolio value

$266,100

Capital deployed

$7,208,019

lifetime cost of all positions

Tracked whale volume

$67,723

volume seen by WhaleWatcher

Open positions

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 1.6/30Return 0.3/25Consistency 10.5/25Sample size 20.0/20Concentration 0.0Total 32.5 / 100

Current positions

Market	Outcome	Avg price	Value	Unrealized PnL	Trade
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	89.3¢	$34,737	+$842	Trade ↗
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	83.5¢	$34,449	+$402	Trade ↗
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	82.0¢	$28,252	+$980	Trade ↗
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	86.9¢	$20,129	+$129	Trade ↗
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	94.0¢	$18,863	+$724	Trade ↗
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	50.0¢	$18,468	+$6,918	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	92.3¢	$17,198	-$156	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	86.1¢	$15,937	+$602	Trade ↗
GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	81.2¢	$9,773	+$1,574	Trade ↗
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	86.7¢	$8,330	+$439	Trade ↗
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	No	73.1¢	$7,266	+$1,584	Trade ↗
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	94.4¢	$7,019	+$248	Trade ↗
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	79.3¢	$5,383	-$199	Trade ↗
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	50.0¢	$4,632	-$6,918	Trade ↗
Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	92.8¢	$3,961	+$171	Trade ↗
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	93.5¢	$3,668	+$37	Trade ↗
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?	No	95.8¢	$3,646	-$46	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	72.4¢	$3,396	-$42	Trade ↗
Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	94.0¢	$3,056	+$132	Trade ↗
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	88.0¢	$2,775	+$135	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?	Yes	89.8¢	$2,648	+$78	Trade ↗
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	61.6¢	$2,385	-$86	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	49.3¢	$1,926	-$614	Trade ↗
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	87.0¢	$1,633	-$29	Trade ↗
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	76.0¢	$1,510	-$10	Trade ↗
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	52.0¢	$1,479	+$432	Trade ↗
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	54.4¢	$844	-$1,602	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	75.0¢	$781	+$25	Trade ↗
Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?	Yes	77.5¢	$732	+$112	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026?	Yes	95.3¢	$650	+$8	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?	No	75.0¢	$289	+$64	Trade ↗
Stripe IPO before 2027?	No	92.0¢	$261	+$15	Trade ↗
Fannie Mae IPO before 2027?	No	88.0¢	$5	+$0	Trade ↗
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.4m barrels per day in 2026?	No	96.0¢	$5	-$0	Trade ↗
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	88.0¢	$4	-$0	Trade ↗
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.3m barrels per day in 2026?	No	85.0¢	$4	+$0	Trade ↗
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	84.0¢	$4	+$0	Trade ↗
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	No	70.0¢	$4	+$0	Trade ↗
Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?	Yes	10.0¢	$0	-$20	Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

Time	Market	Side	Outcome	Price	Size
64d ago	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BUY	No	97.0¢	$14,550
64d ago	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BUY	No	96.8¢	$10,187
65d ago	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	SELL	No	96.1¢	$14,416
67d ago	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	SELL	No	95.7¢	$14,573
69d ago	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	SELL	Yes	70.0¢	$13,997