zthunderfury

30Proven trader

0xc682d7943aad07c246986a7aa2989cfcb17817bb· stats updated 2d ago

Realized PnL

+$15,443

closed + open positions

Return on capital

realized PnL ÷ capital deployed

Win rate

67%

322 of 483 resolved

Resolved markets

483

Portfolio value

$258,339

Capital deployed

$6,450,620

lifetime cost of all positions

Tracked whale volume

$67,723

volume seen by WhaleWatcher

Open positions

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 0.0/30Return 0.2/25Consistency 10.4/25Sample size 20.0/20Concentration -0.9Total 29.7 / 100

Current positions

Market	Outcome	Avg price	Value	Unrealized PnL	Trade
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	96.7¢	$76,467	+$1,323	Trade ↗
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	82.0¢	$24,526	+$1,016	Trade ↗
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?	No	89.1¢	$22,204	+$2,217	Trade ↗
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	74.3¢	$14,177	+$3,032	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	84.8¢	$13,477	+$416	Trade ↗
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	No	79.9¢	$13,405	+$417	Trade ↗
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	96.5¢	$9,642	+$268	Trade ↗
GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	80.9¢	$9,237	+$1,245	Trade ↗
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	93.0¢	$9,222	-$50	Trade ↗
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	94.4¢	$9,192	+$179	Trade ↗
Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	92.8¢	$8,969	+$252	Trade ↗
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	No	73.1¢	$8,846	+$1,284	Trade ↗
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	84.0¢	$8,406	+$238	Trade ↗
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	50.0¢	$8,119	+$2,731	Trade ↗
Iran leadership change by September 30?	No	95.4¢	$4,858	+$91	Trade ↗
Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	94.0¢	$3,511	+$19	Trade ↗
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	88.0¢	$2,775	+$135	Trade ↗
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	50.0¢	$2,656	-$2,731	Trade ↗
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	91.0¢	$2,427	-$69	Trade ↗
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	95.9¢	$2,318	-$40	Trade ↗
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	68.0¢	$1,088	+$68	Trade ↗
Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?	Yes	77.5¢	$692	+$72	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	75.8¢	$668	-$71	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?	Yes	77.8¢	$458	+$46	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?	No	75.0¢	$276	+$51	Trade ↗
Stripe IPO before 2027?	No	92.0¢	$253	+$7	Trade ↗
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?	Yes	55.0¢	$201	-$79	Trade ↗
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	No	82.0¢	$165	+$13	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026?	Yes	90.1¢	$89	+$6	Trade ↗
Kash Patel out by September 30?	No	94.0¢	$5	+$0	Trade ↗
Fannie Mae IPO before 2027?	No	88.0¢	$5	+$0	Trade ↗
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.4m barrels per day in 2026?	No	96.0¢	$5	-$0	Trade ↗
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.3m barrels per day in 2026?	No	85.0¢	$4	-$0	Trade ↗
Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?	Yes	10.0¢	$0	-$20	Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

Time	Market	Side	Outcome	Price	Size
18d ago	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BUY	No	97.0¢	$14,550
18d ago	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BUY	No	96.8¢	$10,187
19d ago	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	SELL	No	96.1¢	$14,416
21d ago	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	SELL	No	95.7¢	$14,573
24d ago	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	SELL	Yes	70.0¢	$13,997