Erasmus.

78Qualified whaleProven trader

0xc6587b11a2209e46dfe3928b31c5514a8e33b784· stats updated 2d ago

Realized PnL

+$5,658,814

closed + open positions

Return on capital

realized PnL ÷ capital deployed

Win rate

100%

500 of 500 resolved

Resolved markets

500

Portfolio value

$920,750

Capital deployed

$106,175,665

lifetime cost of all positions

Tracked whale volume

$1,466,379

volume seen by WhaleWatcher

Open positions

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 30.0/30Return 4.4/25Consistency 25.0/25Sample size 20.0/20Concentration -1.8Total 77.6 / 100

Current positions

Market	Outcome	Avg price	Value	Unrealized PnL	Trade
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	81.1¢	$313,895	+$35,761	Trade ↗
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	74.2¢	$269,486	+$57,895	Trade ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	36.9¢	$96,879	-$379,952	Trade ↗
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	90.5¢	$72,399	+$5,318	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	88.0¢	$47,069	+$2,290	Trade ↗
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	82.7¢	$25,936	+$3,467	Trade ↗
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	32.9¢	$23,976	-$68,685	Trade ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	82.0¢	$22,639	+$2,572	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	82.2¢	$16,772	-$239	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	62.6¢	$13,494	-$11,082	Trade ↗
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	37.5¢	$6,814	-$7,012	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	88.0¢	$6,068	+$295	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	48.4¢	$3,403	+$923	Trade ↗
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	No	91.0¢	$1,129	+$73	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	35.8¢	$453	-$1,706	Trade ↗
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	13.0¢	$273	-$603	Trade ↗
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	65.1¢	$65	-$40	Trade ↗
Andy Byron out as Astronomer CEO by next Friday?	No	42.0¢	$0	-$4,200	Trade ↗
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	Yes	27.0¢	$0	-$656	Trade ↗
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	Yes	18.0¢	$0	-$167	Trade ↗
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?	Yes	1.2¢	$0	-$516	Trade ↗
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	48.4¢	$0	-$88,011	Trade ↗
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	Yes	8.5¢	$0	-$121	Trade ↗
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?	Yes	52.8¢	$0	-$928	Trade ↗
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	32.8¢	$0	-$3,607	Trade ↗
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	2.1¢	$0	-$4,613	Trade ↗
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	Yes	62.0¢	$0	-$20,032	Trade ↗
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?	Yes	40.3¢	$0	-$656	Trade ↗
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	7.8¢	$0	-$196	Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	Yes	12.0¢	$0	-$626	Trade ↗
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	6.6¢	$0	-$37,713	Trade ↗
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	60.0¢	$0	-$990	Trade ↗
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?	Yes	11.6¢	$0	-$11,559	Trade ↗
Israel strikes Iran by October 31?	Yes	19.0¢	$0	-$3	Trade ↗
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	8.8¢	$0	-$615	Trade ↗
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?	Yes	24.7¢	$0	-$5,869	Trade ↗
Bill Belichick engaged in 2025?	Yes	34.2¢	$0	-$157	Trade ↗
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	Yes	12.5¢	$0	-$6,584	Trade ↗
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?	Yes	5.4¢	$0	-$251	Trade ↗
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	Yes	10.0¢	$0	-$302	Trade ↗
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?	Yes	9.0¢	$0	-$2,317	Trade ↗
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	43.7¢	$0	-$176,834	Trade ↗
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?	Yes	27.9¢	$0	-$571	Trade ↗
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?	Yes	4.5¢	$0	-$116	Trade ↗
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	1.6¢	$0	-$629	Trade ↗
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	Yes	34.5¢	$0	-$16,114	Trade ↗
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives in 2025?	Yes	18.0¢	$0	-$369	Trade ↗
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	Yes	65.1¢	$0	-$1,339	Trade ↗
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	Yes	0.8¢	$0	-$286	Trade ↗
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31?	Yes	54.7¢	$0	-$1,801	Trade ↗
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	16.6¢	$0	-$22,695	Trade ↗
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	16.5¢	$0	-$33,593	Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?	Yes	22.6¢	$0	-$178	Trade ↗
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	48.6¢	$0	-$9,745	Trade ↗
Weed rescheduled in 2025?	Yes	28.0¢	$0	-$28	Trade ↗
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	21.6¢	$0	-$378,477	Trade ↗
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	Yes	12.4¢	$0	-$4,332	Trade ↗
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	33.6¢	$0	-$5,555	Trade ↗
Will the government shutdown end November 12?	Yes	42.2¢	$0	-$56,088	Trade ↗
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	15.8¢	$0	-$51,211	Trade ↗
Will Eric Adams drop out by September 30?	No	83.0¢	$0	-$8,786	Trade ↗
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	17.0¢	$0	-$55,371	Trade ↗
Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025?	Yes	20.0¢	$0	-$20	Trade ↗
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	15.7¢	$0	-$792	Trade ↗
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	Yes	30.7¢	$0	-$7,921	Trade ↗
US national XRP reserve in 2025?	Yes	13.2¢	$0	-$537	Trade ↗
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	Yes	9.8¢	$0	-$197	Trade ↗
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	41.0¢	$0	-$2,465	Trade ↗
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?	No	3.0¢	$0	-$403	Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

Time	Market	Side	Outcome	Price	Size
9d ago	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	BUY	Yes	74.6¢	$17,810
9d ago	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	BUY	Yes	73.0¢	$18,638
11d ago	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	BUY	No	31.0¢	$15,500
11d ago	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	BUY	Yes	44.0¢	$10,867
11d ago	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	BUY	No	55.0¢	$14,101
11d ago	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	BUY	No	49.8¢	$11,245
11d ago	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	BUY	Yes	47.0¢	$15,707
11d ago	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	BUY	Yes	28.9¢	$28,813
20d ago	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	BUY	No	19.0¢	$10,754
26d ago	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	BUY	Yes	48.0¢	$43,834
27d ago	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	BUY	Yes	60.7¢	$11,598
30d ago	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	BUY	Yes	64.5¢	$12,978
31d ago	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	BUY	Yes	66.0¢	$25,244
31d ago	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	BUY	Yes	64.0¢	$19,200
31d ago	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	BUY	Yes	63.7¢	$31,864
31d ago	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	BUY	Yes	62.0¢	$12,400
38d ago	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	BUY	No	88.0¢	$44,787
38d ago	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	BUY	No	48.0¢	$15,972
39d ago	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	BUY	Yes	50.0¢	$25,000
39d ago	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	BUY	Yes	50.0¢	$15,000
39d ago	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	BUY	Yes	88.0¢	$79,292
39d ago	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	BUY	Yes	10.0¢	$23,342
40d ago	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	BUY	Yes	88.0¢	$22,280
40d ago	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	BUY	Yes	87.0¢	$47,676
40d ago	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	BUY	Yes	87.0¢	$22,062