simpleman

63Qualified whaleProven trader

0xbe89905ca9a689f5129621b62fcf715b5a45b88c· stats updated 2d ago

Realized PnL

+$177,441

closed + open positions

Return on capital

realized PnL ÷ capital deployed

Win rate

100%

500 of 500 resolved

Resolved markets

500

Portfolio value

$161,265

Capital deployed

$4,039,954

lifetime cost of all positions

Tracked whale volume

$182,101

volume seen by WhaleWatcher

Open positions

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 15.9/30Return 3.7/25Consistency 25.0/25Sample size 20.0/20Concentration -1.8Total 62.8 / 100

Current positions

Market	Outcome	Avg price	Value	Unrealized PnL	Trade
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	84.4¢	$55,117	-$6,102	Trade ↗
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	62.7¢	$27,488	+$9,053	Trade ↗
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Yes	51.8¢	$19,779	+$4,940	Trade ↗
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	Yes	63.1¢	$17,179	+$2,529	Trade ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	74.5¢	$8,971	-$186	Trade ↗
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?	Yes	65.0¢	$6,715	+$252	Trade ↗
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026?	No	69.8¢	$4,590	+$909	Trade ↗
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	79.9¢	$3,413	+$242	Trade ↗
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	No	82.0¢	$3,094	-$180	Trade ↗
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	81.3¢	$2,498	+$310	Trade ↗
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	89.3¢	$1,503	+$3	Trade ↗
Will J.D. Vance announce a presidential run before 2027?	No	88.6¢	$1,268	+$74	Trade ↗
Will no one dissent the October Fed decision?	No	50.2¢	$1,059	+$359	Trade ↗
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	No	89.8¢	$1,017	+$7	Trade ↗
Will Josh Hawley announce a presidential run before 2027?	No	89.8¢	$965	+$49	Trade ↗
Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?	Yes	50.9¢	$923	+$106	Trade ↗
Will Marco Rubio announce a presidential run before 2027?	No	91.3¢	$835	+$40	Trade ↗
Will Rahm Emanuel announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	83.7¢	$810	-$7	Trade ↗
Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2027?	No	89.0¢	$671	+$47	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party win the KY-04 House seat?	Yes	91.0¢	$571	+$28	Trade ↗
Will Josh Shapiro announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	90.0¢	$425	+$25	Trade ↗
Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	86.0¢	$368	-$63	Trade ↗
Kimberly Guilfoyle federally charged by December 31?	No	88.0¢	$307	+$12	Trade ↗
Will Mark Kelly announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	86.0¢	$222	+$8	Trade ↗
Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO before 2027?	No	78.0¢	$185	+$29	Trade ↗
Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026?	No	30.9¢	$181	+$119	Trade ↗
Will Jake Paul announce a run for public office in 2026?	No	85.0¢	$180	+$10	Trade ↗
Will Don Lemon announce a presidential run before 2027?	No	88.0¢	$155	+$9	Trade ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	2.7¢	$149	+$14	Trade ↗
Will no one dissent the December Fed decision?	No	50.2¢	$129	+$20	Trade ↗
Will no one dissent the January Fed decision?	Yes	34.7¢	$84	+$36	Trade ↗
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?	No	47.0¢	$77	-$38	Trade ↗
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by December 31, 2026?	Yes	25.8¢	$65	-$34	Trade ↗
GOP uses 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by December 31, 2026?	No	83.0¢	$45	+$4	Trade ↗
Fetterman leaves the Democrats by December 31, 2026?	No	85.0¢	$37	+$3	Trade ↗
Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Yes	7.5¢	$32	-$4	Trade ↗
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by November 30, 2026?	Yes	23.0¢	$27	-$50	Trade ↗
Nothing Ever Happens: Obama	Nothing	85.0¢	$25	+$2	Trade ↗
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the December interest rate announcement?	Yes	43.0¢	$18	+$1	Trade ↗
Trump renames ICE to NICE by December 31?	Yes	6.9¢	$18	-$12	Trade ↗
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	Yes	6.4¢	$17	-$83	Trade ↗
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?	Yes	55.0¢	$14	+$3	Trade ↗
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?	Yes	28.6¢	$10	-$15	Trade ↗
Will Trump nationalize elections?	Yes	24.7¢	$8	-$17	Trade ↗
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by October 31, 2026?	Yes	11.3¢	$6	-$9	Trade ↗
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?	Yes	27.0¢	$6	-$48	Trade ↗
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?	No	77.0¢	$5	+$1	Trade ↗
Will Letitia James be arrested before 2027?	No	88.0¢	$2	+$0	Trade ↗
Will the Fed Hike-Pause-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?	Yes	2.5¢	$2	-$3	Trade ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	16.0¢	$0	-$1	Trade ↗
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	17.0¢	$0	-$40	Trade ↗
Will the Fed Hike-Pause-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?	Yes	1.5¢	$0	-$0	Trade ↗
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in June?	Yes	0.1¢	$0	-$2	Trade ↗
Will annual inflation be 3.6% in July?	Yes	3.4¢	$0	-$10	Trade ↗
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in June?	Yes	0.3¢	$0	-$5	Trade ↗
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in July?	Yes	8.1¢	$0	-$1	Trade ↗
Will Warsh say "Dissent" during July Press Conference?	Yes	15.0¢	$0	-$15	Trade ↗
Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?	Yes	15.0¢	$0	-$247	Trade ↗
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.4% in August?	Yes	2.0¢	$0	-$10	Trade ↗
Will the US add between 0 and 50k jobs in August?	Yes	26.9¢	$0	-$350	Trade ↗
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in August?	Yes	4.4¢	$0	-$102	Trade ↗
Will Core CPI YoY be 3.1% in June?	Yes	1.2¢	$0	-$17	Trade ↗
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General by June 30?	Yes	50.0¢	$0	-$75	Trade ↗
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference?	Yes	23.8¢	$0	-$29	Trade ↗
Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in June?	Yes	3.0¢	$0	-$1	Trade ↗
Will annual inflation be 3.2% in August?	Yes	6.2¢	$0	-$26	Trade ↗
Will Warsh say "Oil" during July Press Conference?	Yes	75.0¢	$0	-$15	Trade ↗
Will Warsh say "Predecessor" during June Press Conference?	Yes	20.0¢	$0	-$1	Trade ↗
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% in August?	Yes	0.6¢	$0	-$10	Trade ↗
Will monthly inflation decrease by 0.1% in July?	Yes	4.3¢	$0	-$22	Trade ↗
Will Warsh say "Good Day" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?	Yes	28.0¢	$0	-$25	Trade ↗
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.3% in July?	Yes	3.7¢	$0	-$7	Trade ↗
Will monthly inflation stay flat (0.0%) in August?	Yes	0.4¢	$0	-$5	Trade ↗
Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in September?	Yes	29.9¢	$0	-$85	Trade ↗
Will Core CPI YoY be 3.0% in June?	Yes	0.5¢	$0	-$2	Trade ↗
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	20.1¢	$0	-$1	Trade ↗
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in September?	Yes	16.0¢	$0	-$62	Trade ↗
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in August?	Yes	45.0¢	$0	-$31	Trade ↗
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.4% in September?	Yes	3.6¢	$0	-$37	Trade ↗
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.5% in July?	Yes	0.2¢	$0	-$0	Trade ↗
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in July?	Yes	5.0¢	$0	-$28	Trade ↗
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	36.1¢	$0	-$50	Trade ↗
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.4% in July?	Yes	0.9¢	$0	-$1	Trade ↗
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June?	Yes	2.5¢	$0	-$25	Trade ↗
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in June?	Yes	0.5¢	$0	-$2	Trade ↗
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?	Yes	12.3¢	$0	-$50	Trade ↗
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September?	Yes	51.1¢	$0	-$653	Trade ↗
Will Warsh say "Groupthink" or "Group Think" during June Press Conference?	Yes	41.1¢	$0	-$10	Trade ↗
Will Warsh say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?	Yes	21.0¢	$0	-$11	Trade ↗
Will annual inflation be 3.1% or less in July?	Yes	2.3¢	$0	-$16	Trade ↗
Will Core CPI YoY be 3.2% in June?	Yes	1.1¢	$0	-$9	Trade ↗
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	42.8¢	$0	-$222	Trade ↗
Will Donald Trump announce Eric Schmitt as the next United States Attorney General by December 31?	Yes	3.0¢	$0	-$0	Trade ↗
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	No	1.4¢	$0	-$8	Trade ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	0.8¢	$0	-$125	Trade ↗
Will Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in June?	Yes	39.0¢	$0	-$8	Trade ↗
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	10.2¢	$0	-$25	Trade ↗
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General by December 31?	Yes	4.0¢	$0	-$0	Trade ↗
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.0% or less in August?	Yes	4.0¢	$0	-$2	Trade ↗
Will Warsh say "Goods Inflation" during June Press Conference?	Yes	40.0¢	$0	-$25	Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

Time	Market	Side	Outcome	Price	Size
11d ago	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	SELL	Yes	65.1¢	$14,155
11d ago	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	SELL	Yes	90.0¢	$15,792
11d ago	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	BUY	Yes	80.0¢	$10,000
14d ago	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	SELL	Yes	83.0¢	$10,758
20d ago	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	SELL	Yes	82.0¢	$12,146
25d ago	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	SELL	Yes	91.0¢	$10,003
25d ago	Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	SELL	No	99.1¢	$13,705
43d ago	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	BUY	Yes	82.0¢	$15,000
43d ago	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	BUY	Yes	82.0¢	$16,400
44d ago	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	SELL	Yes	80.4¢	$25,747
45d ago	Fed rate hike in 2026?	SELL	Yes	70.4¢	$12,771
52d ago	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	SELL	No	99.5¢	$15,124
67d ago	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	SELL	Yes	70.0¢	$10,500