simpleman

64Qualified whaleProven trader

0xbe89905ca9a689f5129621b62fcf715b5a45b88c· stats updated 1d ago

Realized PnL

+$159,640

closed + open positions

Return on capital

realized PnL ÷ capital deployed

Win rate

100%

500 of 500 resolved

Resolved markets

500

Portfolio value

$128,271

Capital deployed

$3,437,999

lifetime cost of all positions

Tracked whale volume

$25,624

volume seen by WhaleWatcher

Open positions

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 15.1/30Return 3.9/25Consistency 25.0/25Sample size 20.0/20Concentration 0.0Total 64.0 / 100

Current positions

Market	Outcome	Avg price	Value	Unrealized PnL	Trade
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	52.0¢	$14,194	+$3,719	Trade ↗
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	85.5¢	$13,388	+$1,039	Trade ↗
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	No	90.0¢	$13,297	+$845	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	84.7¢	$9,771	+$201	Trade ↗
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	89.6¢	$7,678	+$596	Trade ↗
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	No	85.3¢	$6,743	+$590	Trade ↗
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	53.5¢	$6,515	-$1,141	Trade ↗
US military draft authorized in 2026?	No	89.9¢	$5,451	+$387	Trade ↗
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	92.0¢	$5,082	+$82	Trade ↗
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	90.0¢	$4,675	+$175	Trade ↗
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026?	No	69.8¢	$4,669	+$988	Trade ↗
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	90.6¢	$4,419	+$227	Trade ↗
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	79.9¢	$3,473	+$302	Trade ↗
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	81.3¢	$3,283	+$366	Trade ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	53.5¢	$2,917	-$53	Trade ↗
Will J.D. Vance announce a presidential run before 2027?	No	88.6¢	$2,676	+$288	Trade ↗
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Yes	19.3¢	$2,038	+$429	Trade ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	28.4¢	$2,023	+$704	Trade ↗
Will Josh Hawley announce a presidential run before 2027?	No	89.8¢	$1,987	+$155	Trade ↗
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	89.3¢	$1,553	+$53	Trade ↗
JD Vance out as VP by December 31?	No	95.0¢	$1,521	-$8	Trade ↗
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?	No	90.0¢	$1,457	+$90	Trade ↗
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	62.3¢	$1,312	+$101	Trade ↗
Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	No	59.7¢	$918	+$140	Trade ↗
Will Rahm Emanuel announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	83.7¢	$913	+$96	Trade ↗
Will Marco Rubio announce a presidential run before 2027?	No	91.3¢	$866	+$41	Trade ↗
Will Andy Beshear announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	89.0¢	$832	+$48	Trade ↗
Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2027?	No	89.0¢	$776	+$64	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party win the KY-04 House seat?	Yes	91.0¢	$743	+$20	Trade ↗
Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	86.0¢	$464	+$34	Trade ↗
Will Josh Shapiro announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	90.0¢	$420	+$20	Trade ↗
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	Yes	41.1¢	$287	+$16	Trade ↗
Will Mark Kelly announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	86.0¢	$235	+$21	Trade ↗
Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Yes	2.9¢	$225	+$88	Trade ↗
Trump out as President before 2027?	No	85.0¢	$208	+$21	Trade ↗
Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO before 2027?	No	78.0¢	$199	+$43	Trade ↗
Will Jake Paul announce a run for public office in 2026?	No	85.0¢	$185	+$15	Trade ↗
Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026?	No	30.9¢	$173	+$111	Trade ↗
Will Don Lemon announce a presidential run before 2027?	No	88.0¢	$151	+$5	Trade ↗
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in August?	Yes	27.9¢	$147	+$31	Trade ↗
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in August?	Yes	5.0¢	$55	+$5	Trade ↗
GOP uses 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by December 31, 2026?	No	83.0¢	$46	+$5	Trade ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?	Yes	20.0¢	$38	+$7	Trade ↗
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?	No	68.0¢	$37	+$5	Trade ↗
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in August?	Yes	45.0¢	$37	+$6	Trade ↗
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?	Yes	25.0¢	$33	+$13	Trade ↗
Nothing Ever Happens: Obama	Nothing	85.0¢	$25	+$2	Trade ↗
Trump renames ICE to NICE by December 31?	Yes	6.9¢	$24	-$6	Trade ↗
Doug Ford out as PC Party Leader by December 31?	No	75.0¢	$20	+$3	Trade ↗
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?	Yes	27.0¢	$20	-$34	Trade ↗
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?	Yes	28.6¢	$17	-$8	Trade ↗
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.4% in August?	Yes	2.0¢	$16	+$6	Trade ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	0.9¢	$10	-$7	Trade ↗
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% in August?	Yes	0.8¢	$8	+$3	Trade ↗
Will Trump nationalize elections?	Yes	24.7¢	$8	-$17	Trade ↗
Will monthly inflation stay flat (0.0%) in August?	Yes	0.5¢	$5	+$1	Trade ↗
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?	No	77.0¢	$5	+$1	Trade ↗
Will Letitia James be arrested before 2027?	No	88.0¢	$2	+$0	Trade ↗
Will annual inflation be 3.2% in August?	Yes	6.2¢	$0	+$0	Trade ↗
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	17.0¢	$0	-$40	Trade ↗
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.0% or less in August?	Yes	4.0¢	$0	-$2	Trade ↗
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in June?	Yes	0.1¢	$0	-$2	Trade ↗
Will annual inflation be 3.6% in July?	Yes	3.4¢	$0	-$10	Trade ↗
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in June?	Yes	0.3¢	$0	-$5	Trade ↗
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in July?	Yes	8.1¢	$0	-$1	Trade ↗
Will Warsh say "Dissent" during July Press Conference?	Yes	15.0¢	$0	-$15	Trade ↗
Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?	Yes	15.0¢	$0	-$247	Trade ↗
Will the US add between 0 and 50k jobs in August?	Yes	26.9¢	$0	-$350	Trade ↗
Will Core CPI YoY be 3.1% in June?	Yes	1.2¢	$0	-$17	Trade ↗
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General by June 30?	Yes	50.0¢	$0	-$75	Trade ↗
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference?	Yes	23.8¢	$0	-$29	Trade ↗
Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in June?	Yes	3.0¢	$0	-$1	Trade ↗
Will Warsh say "Oil" during July Press Conference?	Yes	75.0¢	$0	-$15	Trade ↗
Will Warsh say "Predecessor" during June Press Conference?	Yes	20.0¢	$0	-$1	Trade ↗
Will monthly inflation decrease by 0.1% in July?	Yes	4.3¢	$0	-$22	Trade ↗
Will Warsh say "Good Day" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?	Yes	28.0¢	$0	-$25	Trade ↗
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.3% in July?	Yes	3.7¢	$0	-$7	Trade ↗
Will Core CPI YoY be 3.0% in June?	Yes	0.5¢	$0	-$2	Trade ↗
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.5% in July?	Yes	0.2¢	$0	-$0	Trade ↗
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in July?	Yes	5.0¢	$0	-$28	Trade ↗
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	36.1¢	$0	-$50	Trade ↗
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.4% in July?	Yes	0.9¢	$0	-$1	Trade ↗
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June?	Yes	2.5¢	$0	-$25	Trade ↗
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in June?	Yes	0.5¢	$0	-$2	Trade ↗
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?	Yes	12.3¢	$0	-$50	Trade ↗
Will Warsh say "Groupthink" or "Group Think" during June Press Conference?	Yes	41.1¢	$0	-$10	Trade ↗
Will Warsh say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?	Yes	21.0¢	$0	-$11	Trade ↗
Will annual inflation be 3.1% or less in July?	Yes	2.3¢	$0	-$16	Trade ↗
Will Core CPI YoY be 3.2% in June?	Yes	1.1¢	$0	-$9	Trade ↗
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	42.8¢	$0	-$222	Trade ↗
Will Donald Trump announce Eric Schmitt as the next United States Attorney General by December 31?	Yes	3.0¢	$0	-$0	Trade ↗
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	No	1.4¢	$0	-$8	Trade ↗
Will Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in June?	Yes	39.0¢	$0	-$8	Trade ↗
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	10.2¢	$0	-$25	Trade ↗
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General by December 31?	Yes	4.0¢	$0	-$0	Trade ↗
Will Warsh say "Goods Inflation" during June Press Conference?	Yes	40.0¢	$0	-$25	Trade ↗
Will "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 34m and 39m?	Yes	7.0¢	$0	-$10	Trade ↗
Will Trump attend his son's wedding?	Yes	62.0¢	$0	-$131	Trade ↗
Will annual inflation be 3.2% in July?	Yes	4.3¢	$0	-$30	Trade ↗
Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?	Yes	32.0¢	$0	-$160	Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

Time	Market	Side	Outcome	Price	Size
6d ago	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	SELL	No	99.5¢	$15,124
21d ago	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	SELL	Yes	70.0¢	$10,500