novv25

0xa9fe4929d4ea1525ca03bd0ff68ea1fbf9e7f135· stats updated 5d ago

Realized PnL

-$100,708

closed + open positions

Return on capital

-2%

realized PnL ÷ capital deployed

Win rate

56%

55 of 98 resolved

Resolved markets

Portfolio value

$18,290

Capital deployed

$4,448,393

lifetime cost of all positions

Tracked whale volume

$26,788

volume seen by WhaleWatcher

Open positions

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 0.0/30Return 0.0/25Consistency 3.8/25Sample size 15.2/20Concentration -7.8Total 11.3 / 100

Current positions

Market	Outcome	Avg price	Value	Unrealized PnL	Trade
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	Yes	13.4¢	$11,696	-$23,099	Trade ↗
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	18.6¢	$3,455	-$5,122	Trade ↗
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	15.3¢	$2,588	+$833	Trade ↗
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	10.3¢	$368	+$183	Trade ↗
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	13.4¢	$117	-$147	Trade ↗
Iran Nuke before 2027?	Yes	12.0¢	$30	-$91	Trade ↗
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in October?	Yes	18.0¢	$13	-$30	Trade ↗
Will the Senate pass the Clarity Act by October 31?	Yes	2.2¢	$13	-$7	Trade ↗
Modi out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	8.4¢	$4	-$6	Trade ↗
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	44.0¢	$2	+$1	Trade ↗
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?	Yes	25.0¢	$1	-$13	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	58.0¢	$1	+$0	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	64.0¢	$1	-$0	Trade ↗
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	29.0¢	$1	-$0	Trade ↗
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	38.0¢	$0	-$1	Trade ↗
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?	Yes	66.0¢	$0	-$1	Trade ↗
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	Yes	57.0¢	$0	-$1	Trade ↗
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	21.3¢	$0	-$1	Trade ↗
Will England be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?	No	55.0¢	$0	-$132	Trade ↗
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	38.0¢	$0	-$29,253	Trade ↗
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	21.1¢	$0	-$99	Trade ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	31.2¢	$0	-$138,493	Trade ↗
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	12.6¢	$0	-$6,611	Trade ↗
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	9.2¢	$0	-$16,191	Trade ↗
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	44.3¢	$0	-$109	Trade ↗
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	18.0¢	$0	-$200	Trade ↗
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	Yes	30.4¢	$0	-$6,154	Trade ↗
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	Yes	10.3¢	$0	-$663	Trade ↗
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	Yes	38.0¢	$0	-$1,520	Trade ↗
Will England win the World Cup?	Yes	20.0¢	$0	-$100	Trade ↗
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June?	Yes	4.2¢	$0	-$144	Trade ↗
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?	Yes	18.0¢	$0	-$127	Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

Time	Market	Side	Outcome	Price	Size
44d ago	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL	Yes	14.7¢	$13,255
55d ago	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL	Yes	15.0¢	$13,532