0x8c66E28FbE7Ede7F57bA6CBc70408DfF442944F3-1777220320442

36Qualified whaleProven trader

0x8c66e28fbe7ede7f57ba6cbc70408dff442944f3· stats updated 4d ago

Realized PnL

+$145,695

closed + open positions

Return on capital

realized PnL ÷ capital deployed

Win rate

73%

61 of 84 resolved

Resolved markets

Portfolio value

$20,133

Capital deployed

$3,764,821

lifetime cost of all positions

Tracked whale volume

$15,120

volume seen by WhaleWatcher

Open positions

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 14.3/30Return 3.2/25Consistency 14.1/25Sample size 14.2/20Concentration -10.3Total 35.6 / 100

Current positions

Market	Outcome	Avg price	Value	Unrealized PnL	Trade
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	84.0¢	$15,390	+$270	Trade ↗
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	No	93.0¢	$1,870	+$10	Trade ↗
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	51.5¢	$1,707	+$702	Trade ↗
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	17.4¢	$419	-$1,148	Trade ↗
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	14.0¢	$391	+$317	Trade ↗
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	Yes	13.7¢	$192	-$8,585	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Yes	42.8¢	$88	-$126	Trade ↗
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	No	29.5¢	$72	+$48	Trade ↗
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	7.0¢	$5	-$663	Trade ↗
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?	Yes	92.8¢	$0	-$186	Trade ↗
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?	No	55.7¢	$0	-$990	Trade ↗
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	2.4¢	$0	-$1,205	Trade ↗
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	6.0¢	$0	-$6,223	Trade ↗
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29?	Yes	13.4¢	$0	-$1,207	Trade ↗
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?	No	8.0¢	$0	-$9,092	Trade ↗
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?	No	25.0¢	$0	-$999	Trade ↗
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?	Yes	9.0¢	$0	-$147	Trade ↗
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	Yes	49.8¢	$0	-$1,256	Trade ↗
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	Yes	91.0¢	$0	-$1,820	Trade ↗
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	Yes	9.9¢	$0	-$1,715	Trade ↗
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	No	8.1¢	$0	-$370	Trade ↗
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	Yes	59.0¢	$0	-$6	Trade ↗
Israel closes its airspace by July 15?	Yes	5.5¢	$0	-$195	Trade ↗
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?	Yes	18.5¢	$0	-$2,425	Trade ↗
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	No	33.9¢	$0	-$3,852	Trade ↗
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	No	24.8¢	$0	-$491	Trade ↗
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	No	10.0¢	$0	-$107	Trade ↗
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?	No	14.6¢	$0	-$139	Trade ↗
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	40.0¢	$0	-$720	Trade ↗
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	24.8¢	$0	-$1,028	Trade ↗
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	0.6¢	$0	-$789	Trade ↗
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	No	9.0¢	$0	-$20	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	10.0¢	$0	-$50	Trade ↗
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?	Yes	18.3¢	$0	-$1,043	Trade ↗
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	11.1¢	$0	-$116	Trade ↗
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?	Yes	7.1¢	$0	-$1,081	Trade ↗
Will the United Arab Emirates send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?	Yes	31.0¢	$0	-$2	Trade ↗
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?	Yes	6.0¢	$0	-$27	Trade ↗
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	Yes	91.4¢	$0	-$1,011	Trade ↗
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	Yes	33.8¢	$0	-$626	Trade ↗
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?	Yes	25.2¢	$0	-$3,196	Trade ↗
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?	Yes	11.2¢	$0	-$852	Trade ↗
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	Yes	14.0¢	$0	-$131	Trade ↗
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	0.9¢	$0	-$900	Trade ↗
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 30?	Yes	13.3¢	$0	-$1,479	Trade ↗
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?	Yes	0.8¢	$0	-$22	Trade ↗
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	Yes	50.0¢	$0	-$1,250	Trade ↗
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	14.3¢	$0	-$3,017	Trade ↗
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?	No	40.7¢	$0	-$1,099	Trade ↗
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?	No	54.4¢	$0	-$3,920	Trade ↗
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?	Yes	4.8¢	$0	-$21	Trade ↗
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	Yes	46.8¢	$0	-$1,281	Trade ↗
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30?	Yes	5.5¢	$0	-$6	Trade ↗
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30?	No	5.7¢	$0	-$567	Trade ↗
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	Yes	17.3¢	$0	-$7,327	Trade ↗
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	No	21.0¢	$0	-$57	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?	Yes	13.7¢	$0	-$445	Trade ↗
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?	Yes	50.0¢	$0	-$115	Trade ↗
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?	Yes	6.9¢	$0	-$316	Trade ↗
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Yes	43.0¢	$0	-$324	Trade ↗
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	Yes	5.2¢	$0	-$672	Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

Time	Market	Side	Outcome	Price	Size
13d ago	Iran leadership change by December 31?	BUY	No	84.0¢	$15,120