eightpenguins

61Qualified whaleProven trader

0x3c593aeb73ebdadbc9ce76d4264a6a2af4011766· stats updated 2d ago

Realized PnL

+$542,432

closed + open positions

Return on capital

12%

realized PnL ÷ capital deployed

Win rate

72%

349 of 485 resolved

Resolved markets

485

Portfolio value

$70,525

Capital deployed

$4,605,128

lifetime cost of all positions

Tracked whale volume

$43,197

volume seen by WhaleWatcher

Open positions

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 25.0/30Return 9.8/25Consistency 13.7/25Sample size 20.0/20Concentration -7.3Total 61.3 / 100

Current positions

Market	Outcome	Avg price	Value	Unrealized PnL	Trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	74.7¢	$43,282	+$5,455	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Yes	32.0¢	$7,108	-$5,894	Trade ↗
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	No	73.9¢	$6,626	+$1,420	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	73.0¢	$4,797	+$795	Trade ↗
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?	No	85.0¢	$1,933	+$44	Trade ↗
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	No	65.5¢	$1,143	+$267	Trade ↗
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	29.0¢	$824	-$1,692	Trade ↗
Will Obsession be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?	No	82.0¢	$778	-$133	Trade ↗
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	39.1¢	$646	+$143	Trade ↗
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	40.4¢	$617	-$1,230	Trade ↗
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	12.7¢	$554	+$354	Trade ↗
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?	Yes	31.8¢	$553	-$749	Trade ↗
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	33.9¢	$390	-$667	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	49.0¢	$383	-$161	Trade ↗
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?	Yes	21.9¢	$291	-$1,190	Trade ↗
Will "The Gentlemen: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week?	No	79.5¢	$230	+$47	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	Yes	23.0¢	$189	-$322	Trade ↗
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	Yes	56.0¢	$93	-$322	Trade ↗
Will "Death of the Pastor's Wife: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week?	Yes	23.3¢	$87	+$67	Trade ↗
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	17.3¢	$1	-$419	Trade ↗
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	0.8¢	$1	-$17	Trade ↗
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	Yes	66.0¢	$0	-$115	Trade ↗
Will Bernie Sanders say "Trump" 15+ times during the Fighting Oligarchy rally?	No	60.0¢	$0	-$79	Trade ↗
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by August 31?	Yes	3.3¢	$0	-$133	Trade ↗
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	No	56.0¢	$0	-$588	Trade ↗
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 40–50%?	Yes	23.0¢	$0	-$575	Trade ↗
Will Google say "DeepMind" or "Deep Mind" during earnings call?	No	30.0¢	$0	-$17	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	Yes	29.1¢	$0	-$5,170	Trade ↗
Will Trump say "Hottest" during call with Service Members on November 27?	No	39.0¢	$0	-$303	Trade ↗
Will "Run Away" be the top global Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)	Yes	19.5¢	$0	-$1,352	Trade ↗
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	Yes	31.5¢	$0	-$1,046	Trade ↗
Will Powell say "Iran" during March press conference?	Yes	56.0¢	$0	-$15	Trade ↗
Will Trump say "Manufacture" or "Manufacturing" during Miami address?	No	46.7¢	$0	-$382	Trade ↗
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	Yes	6.8¢	$0	-$1,516	Trade ↗
Will France be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	Yes	22.4¢	$0	-$649	Trade ↗
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?	Yes	49.6¢	$0	-$4,079	Trade ↗
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?	Yes	11.0¢	$0	-$4	Trade ↗
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31?	Yes	39.8¢	$0	-$4,385	Trade ↗
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 17?	Yes	25.8¢	$0	-$31	Trade ↗
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	No	22.0¢	$0	-$1,005	Trade ↗
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?	No	48.7¢	$0	-$3,244	Trade ↗
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	37.0¢	$0	-$99	Trade ↗
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	35.5¢	$0	-$118	Trade ↗
Will “Nobody Wants This: Season 2” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 11 2025)	Yes	11.0¢	$0	-$8	Trade ↗
Will FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw?	No	70.0¢	$0	-$6,599	Trade ↗
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?	Yes	49.9¢	$0	-$2,705	Trade ↗
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	Yes	43.8¢	$0	-$3,417	Trade ↗
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	28.0¢	$0	-$311	Trade ↗
Will Trump say "Farmer" during the White House Easter Egg Roll?	No	56.0¢	$0	-$76	Trade ↗
Will MrBeast say "Youtube" or "Youtuber" 10+ times at the NYT DealBook Summit?	No	2.0¢	$0	-$40	Trade ↗
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	23.8¢	$0	-$2,561	Trade ↗
Will "72 Hours" be the top US Netflix movie this week?	Yes	39.6¢	$0	-$1,079	Trade ↗
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?	No	0.5¢	$0	-$11	Trade ↗
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	12.1¢	$0	-$945	Trade ↗
Will Powell say "Dollar" 2+ times during March press conference?	No	57.9¢	$0	-$79	Trade ↗
Will GoWish - Your Digital Wishlist be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 28?	Yes	5.3¢	$0	-$40	Trade ↗
Will Google say "Search Advertising" or "Search Ad" during earnings call?	No	35.0¢	$0	-$19	Trade ↗
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?	Yes	66.0¢	$0	-$138	Trade ↗
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?	Yes	25.6¢	$0	-$1,626	Trade ↗
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)	No	19.5¢	$0	-$2,643	Trade ↗
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 21?	Yes	13.3¢	$0	-$642	Trade ↗
Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 15)	Yes	31.4¢	$0	-$854	Trade ↗
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call?	No	6.0¢	$0	-$180	Trade ↗
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 7?	No	10.9¢	$0	-$101	Trade ↗
Will Ed Diehl win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	12.1¢	$0	-$193	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?	Yes	9.8¢	$0	-$3,489	Trade ↗
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	11.9¢	$0	-$2,237	Trade ↗
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	14.5¢	$0	-$2,127	Trade ↗
Will Trump say "Drone" during White House Correspondents Dinner?	No	44.3¢	$0	-$280	Trade ↗
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 2?	No	2.0¢	$0	-$5	Trade ↗
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	Yes	17.9¢	$0	-$538	Trade ↗
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 9, 2025)	Yes	1.5¢	$0	-$8	Trade ↗
Will Trump say "Affordability" in Corpus Christi on Friday?	No	21.6¢	$0	-$152	Trade ↗
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	No	10.0¢	$0	-$688	Trade ↗
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 8?	Yes	30.9¢	$0	-$1,366	Trade ↗
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 20?	No	6.8¢	$0	-$277	Trade ↗
Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?	Yes	17.9¢	$0	-$90	Trade ↗
Will France win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	6.5¢	$0	-$645	Trade ↗
Will Zohran Mamdani rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?	Yes	46.9¢	$0	-$1,911	Trade ↗
Will The Weeknd be the third most streamed Spotify artist for 2025?	No	40.0¢	$0	-$800	Trade ↗
Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by February 6?	Yes	4.6¢	$0	-$180	Trade ↗
Will BigFuture School be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 7?	No	5.0¢	$0	-$3	Trade ↗
Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference?	Yes	7.0¢	$0	-$43	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	36.7¢	$0	-$12,503	Trade ↗
Will "I Will Find You" be the top US Netflix show this week?	Yes	40.0¢	$0	-$222	Trade ↗
Will Cyprus be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	41.4¢	$0	-$277	Trade ↗
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?	No	33.3¢	$0	-$1,061	Trade ↗
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	25.0¢	$0	-$288	Trade ↗
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?	Yes	3.5¢	$0	-$22	Trade ↗
Will Jensen Huang say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times during NVIDIA keynote?	Yes	10.9¢	$0	-$109	Trade ↗
Will Sam Altman be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?	Yes	10.0¢	$0	-$300	Trade ↗
Will "Skyscraper Live" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 27, 2026)	No	28.7¢	$0	-$354	Trade ↗
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 9, 2025)	No	1.7¢	$0	-$129	Trade ↗
Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by February 28?	Yes	28.9¢	$0	-$3,670	Trade ↗
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 28?	No	27.1¢	$0	-$670	Trade ↗
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?	Yes	9.6¢	$0	-$374	Trade ↗
Will "Mike Epps: Delusional" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (February 3, 2026)	Yes	46.0¢	$0	-$348	Trade ↗
Will Trump say "Somali" or "Somalia" during the medal presentation on December 15?	Yes	37.0¢	$0	-$2	Trade ↗
Will "A Cowboy Christmas Romance" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (December 23, 2025)	No	18.9¢	$0	-$366	Trade ↗
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	No	22.5¢	$0	-$648	Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

Time	Market	Side	Outcome	Price	Size
10d ago	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	BUY	Yes	50.0¢	$13,312
31d ago	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	SELL	Yes	62.0¢	$29,885