eightpenguins

72Qualified whaleProven trader

0x3c593aeb73ebdadbc9ce76d4264a6a2af4011766· stats updated 14h ago

Realized PnL

+$612,923

closed + open positions

Return on capital

13%

realized PnL ÷ capital deployed

Win rate

74%

372 of 500 resolved

Resolved markets

500

Portfolio value

$114,770

Capital deployed

$4,851,132

lifetime cost of all positions

Tracked whale volume

$72,229

volume seen by WhaleWatcher

Open positions

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 26.0/30Return 10.5/25Consistency 15.3/25Sample size 20.0/20Concentration 0.0Total 71.8 / 100

Current positions

Market	Outcome	Avg price	Value	Unrealized PnL	Trade
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	69.0¢	$17,022	+$2,793	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	58.1¢	$14,624	+$5,387	Trade ↗
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	37.2¢	$13,129	+$4,160	Trade ↗
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	64.8¢	$11,277	+$1,189	Trade ↗
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	40.1¢	$10,676	+$2,818	Trade ↗
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	No	73.9¢	$6,576	+$1,461	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	60.0¢	$5,555	+$222	Trade ↗
Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	71.0¢	$4,800	+$67	Trade ↗
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	70.0¢	$4,106	-$41	Trade ↗
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	60.0¢	$4,014	+$1,320	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	23.4¢	$3,840	-$8,140	Trade ↗
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	74.7¢	$3,426	+$246	Trade ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	80.7¢	$2,676	+$414	Trade ↗
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Yes	68.2¢	$2,493	-$229	Trade ↗
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	No	69.2¢	$2,440	-$197	Trade ↗
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	58.0¢	$2,083	+$150	Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	77.0¢	$995	+$225	Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	82.5¢	$958	+$165	Trade ↗
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?	Yes	30.4¢	$668	-$688	Trade ↗
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	54.8¢	$647	-$1,126	Trade ↗
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	18.6¢	$453	-$3,057	Trade ↗
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	25.6¢	$389	-$3,847	Trade ↗
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	40.4¢	$388	-$1,458	Trade ↗
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be TIME Person of the Year 2026?	Yes	6.0¢	$327	+$120	Trade ↗
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	Yes	12.7¢	$301	-$494	Trade ↗
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	33.9¢	$296	-$761	Trade ↗
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Yes	58.0¢	$161	-$483	Trade ↗
Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	Yes	62.0¢	$158	-$118	Trade ↗
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?	Yes	13.8¢	$109	-$1,479	Trade ↗
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	0.2¢	$97	+$65	Trade ↗
Will Trump say "Osama Bin Laden" during his Midterm Rally in Michigan?	No	40.0¢	$27	+$6	Trade ↗
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	Yes	56.0¢	$27	-$388	Trade ↗
Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Yes	19.8¢	$21	-$59	Trade ↗
No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?	Hike 25 bps	71.0¢	$10	-$431	Trade ↗
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	17.3¢	$1	-$419	Trade ↗
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	Yes	43.8¢	$0	-$3,417	Trade ↗
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?	Yes	49.9¢	$0	-$2,705	Trade ↗
Will FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw?	No	70.0¢	$0	-$6,599	Trade ↗
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	35.5¢	$0	-$118	Trade ↗
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	37.0¢	$0	-$99	Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20?	No	15.0¢	$0	-$156	Trade ↗
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	No	22.0¢	$0	-$1,005	Trade ↗
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 17?	Yes	25.8¢	$0	-$31	Trade ↗
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31?	Yes	39.8¢	$0	-$4,385	Trade ↗
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?	Yes	11.0¢	$0	-$4	Trade ↗
Will The Weeknd be the third most streamed Spotify artist for 2025?	No	40.0¢	$0	-$800	Trade ↗
Will Zohran Mamdani rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?	Yes	46.9¢	$0	-$1,911	Trade ↗
Will France win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	6.5¢	$0	-$645	Trade ↗
Will BigFuture School be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 7?	No	5.0¢	$0	-$3	Trade ↗
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?	Yes	49.6¢	$0	-$4,079	Trade ↗
Will France be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	Yes	22.4¢	$0	-$649	Trade ↗
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	Yes	6.8¢	$0	-$1,516	Trade ↗
Will Trump say "Manufacture" or "Manufacturing" during Miami address?	No	46.7¢	$0	-$382	Trade ↗
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?	No	48.7¢	$0	-$3,244	Trade ↗
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	No	10.0¢	$0	-$688	Trade ↗
Will Powell say "Iran" during March press conference?	Yes	56.0¢	$0	-$15	Trade ↗
Will "The Gentlemen: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	Yes	10.1¢	$0	-$90	Trade ↗
Will “Nobody Wants This: Season 2” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 11 2025)	Yes	11.0¢	$0	-$8	Trade ↗
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 9, 2025)	Yes	1.5¢	$0	-$8	Trade ↗
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	Yes	31.5¢	$0	-$1,046	Trade ↗
Will "Run Away" be the top global Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)	Yes	19.5¢	$0	-$1,352	Trade ↗
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	28.0¢	$0	-$311	Trade ↗
Will Trump say "Hottest" during call with Service Members on November 27?	No	39.0¢	$0	-$303	Trade ↗
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	14.5¢	$0	-$2,127	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	Yes	29.1¢	$0	-$5,170	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?	Yes	9.8¢	$0	-$3,489	Trade ↗
Will Ed Diehl win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	12.1¢	$0	-$193	Trade ↗
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 7?	No	10.9¢	$0	-$101	Trade ↗
Will Google say "DeepMind" or "Deep Mind" during earnings call?	No	30.0¢	$0	-$17	Trade ↗
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 40–50%?	Yes	23.0¢	$0	-$575	Trade ↗
Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 15)	Yes	31.4¢	$0	-$854	Trade ↗
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 21?	Yes	13.3¢	$0	-$642	Trade ↗
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)	No	19.5¢	$0	-$2,643	Trade ↗
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?	Yes	25.6¢	$0	-$1,626	Trade ↗
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?	Yes	66.0¢	$0	-$138	Trade ↗
Will Google say "Search Advertising" or "Search Ad" during earnings call?	No	35.0¢	$0	-$19	Trade ↗
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15?	Yes	6.0¢	$0	-$128	Trade ↗
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call?	No	6.0¢	$0	-$180	Trade ↗
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	No	56.0¢	$0	-$588	Trade ↗
Will GoWish - Your Digital Wishlist be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 28?	Yes	5.3¢	$0	-$40	Trade ↗
Will Powell say "Dollar" 2+ times during March press conference?	No	57.9¢	$0	-$79	Trade ↗
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	11.9¢	$0	-$2,237	Trade ↗
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	12.1¢	$0	-$945	Trade ↗
Will Trump say "Drone" during White House Correspondents Dinner?	No	44.3¢	$0	-$280	Trade ↗
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 2?	No	2.0¢	$0	-$5	Trade ↗
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	Yes	17.9¢	$0	-$538	Trade ↗
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?	No	0.5¢	$0	-$11	Trade ↗
Will Netanyahu use a visual aid during his UNGA speech?	No	36.7¢	$0	-$4,247	Trade ↗
Will "72 Hours" be the top US Netflix movie this week?	Yes	39.6¢	$0	-$1,079	Trade ↗
Will Trump say "Affordability" in Corpus Christi on Friday?	No	21.6¢	$0	-$152	Trade ↗
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	23.8¢	$0	-$2,561	Trade ↗
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 8?	Yes	30.9¢	$0	-$1,366	Trade ↗
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 20?	No	6.8¢	$0	-$277	Trade ↗
Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?	Yes	17.9¢	$0	-$90	Trade ↗
Will MrBeast say "Youtube" or "Youtuber" 10+ times at the NYT DealBook Summit?	No	2.0¢	$0	-$40	Trade ↗
Will Trump say "Farmer" during the White House Easter Egg Roll?	No	56.0¢	$0	-$76	Trade ↗
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by August 31?	Yes	3.3¢	$0	-$133	Trade ↗
Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by February 6?	Yes	4.6¢	$0	-$180	Trade ↗
Will Bernie Sanders say "Trump" 15+ times during the Fighting Oligarchy rally?	No	60.0¢	$0	-$79	Trade ↗
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	Yes	66.0¢	$0	-$115	Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

Time	Market	Side	Outcome	Price	Size
3d ago	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	BUY	Yes	69.0¢	$14,143
45d ago	Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs B8 (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest: European Qualifier Playoffs	BUY	1WIN	67.0¢	$14,889
55d ago	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	BUY	Yes	50.0¢	$13,312
77d ago	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	SELL	Yes	62.0¢	$29,885