aviato

75Qualified whaleProven trader

0x2a019dc0089ea8c6edbbafc8a7cc9ba77b4b6397· stats updated 1d ago

Realized PnL

+$584,867

closed + open positions

Return on capital

realized PnL ÷ capital deployed

Win rate

100%

500 of 500 resolved

Resolved markets

500

Portfolio value

$152,703

Capital deployed

$12,605,156

lifetime cost of all positions

Tracked whale volume

$131,390

volume seen by WhaleWatcher

Open positions

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 25.6/30Return 3.9/25Consistency 25.0/25Sample size 20.0/20Concentration 0.0Total 74.5 / 100

Current positions

Market	Outcome	Avg price	Value	Unrealized PnL	Trade
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?	No	83.8¢	$16,260	+$1,206	Trade ↗
Yoon out of custody before 2027?	No	83.2¢	$13,212	+$1,400	Trade ↗
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	87.6¢	$10,669	+$942	Trade ↗
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?	No	91.2¢	$8,998	+$520	Trade ↗
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?	No	85.5¢	$8,826	+$516	Trade ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	20.0¢	$8,175	+$5,175	Trade ↗
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	20.0¢	$6,825	+$3,825	Trade ↗
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?	No	85.8¢	$6,725	+$901	Trade ↗
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	90.6¢	$5,277	+$161	Trade ↗
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	No	91.0¢	$4,625	+$75	Trade ↗
Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?	No	98.5¢	$4,437	+$35	Trade ↗
Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?	No	90.3¢	$3,707	+$314	Trade ↗
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	99.5¢	$2,987	+$2	Trade ↗
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	99.6¢	$2,987	-$2	Trade ↗
Trump out as President by September 30?	No	98.9¢	$2,974	+$8	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	87.0¢	$2,924	+$50	Trade ↗
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?	No	91.8¢	$2,862	+$107	Trade ↗
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	85.7¢	$2,535	-$35	Trade ↗
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	No	97.0¢	$1,981	+$40	Trade ↗
Iran leadership change by September 30?	No	95.8¢	$1,951	+$35	Trade ↗
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	94.3¢	$1,923	+$37	Trade ↗
O/U 0.5 Rounds	Over	99.8¢	$1,903	-$6	Trade ↗
Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	91.7¢	$1,870	+$36	Trade ↗
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	87.7¢	$1,864	+$110	Trade ↗
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?	No	86.0¢	$1,790	+$70	Trade ↗
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	93.5¢	$1,595	+$95	Trade ↗
Todd Blanche disbarred or suspended in NY in 2026?	No	95.4¢	$1,544	+$13	Trade ↗
Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?	No	99.4¢	$1,391	+$3	Trade ↗
Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027?	No	88.3¢	$1,244	+$86	Trade ↗
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" before 2027?	No	87.6¢	$1,061	+$45	Trade ↗
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 970m by September 30?	No	92.2¢	$985	+$59	Trade ↗
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	No	97.4¢	$985	+$11	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-03 House seat?	Yes	98.2¢	$982	-$1	Trade ↗
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?	No	86.0¢	$971	+$111	Trade ↗
Will Lisa Cook be arrested before 2027?	No	92.0¢	$967	+$47	Trade ↗
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	85.0¢	$945	+$95	Trade ↗
China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	86.0¢	$935	+$75	Trade ↗
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	91.0¢	$925	+$15	Trade ↗
Trump out as President before 2027?	No	90.0¢	$870	+$41	Trade ↗
Will Hillary Clinton announce a Presidential run before 2028?	No	94.0¢	$787	+$29	Trade ↗
GTA VI released by November 30?	Yes	90.0¢	$785	+$13	Trade ↗
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	73.0¢	$755	+$25	Trade ↗
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	95.5¢	$721	+$29	Trade ↗
Will Zohran Mamdani announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	94.6¢	$700	+$13	Trade ↗
Will Hillary Clinton announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	94.7¢	$627	+$28	Trade ↗
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?	No	89.9¢	$599	+$39	Trade ↗
Jonathan Majors as Kang?	No	88.4¢	$420	+$20	Trade ↗
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30?	No	89.0¢	$405	-$5	Trade ↗
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?	No	62.9¢	$398	+$95	Trade ↗
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	92.0¢	$237	-$17	Trade ↗
Will "Michael" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	82.0¢	$231	+$9	Trade ↗
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	91.3¢	$223	+$13	Trade ↗
Will Jon Stewart announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	95.5¢	$219	-$1	Trade ↗
Will "Avengers: Doomsday" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	92.0¢	$216	+$4	Trade ↗
Will Chase Infiniti be the #1 searched actor on Google this year?	No	92.0¢	$186	+$9	Trade ↗
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027?	No	92.6¢	$145	+$7	Trade ↗
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	66.0¢	$135	-$525	Trade ↗
Zohran Mamdani citizenship revoked before 2027?	No	91.0¢	$133	+$12	Trade ↗
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announce a presidential run before 2027?	No	94.1¢	$131	+$3	Trade ↗
Will George Clooney be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?	No	89.2¢	$130	+$12	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-19 House seat?	Yes	94.5¢	$118	+$5	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?	Yes	91.0¢	$115	+$3	Trade ↗
Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026?	No	93.0¢	$89	-$1	Trade ↗
Dario Amodei arrested by December 31?	No	95.1¢	$72	+$1	Trade ↗
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison?	No	92.7¢	$71	+$1	Trade ↗
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Axel Sola (Lightweight, Main Card)	Axel Sola	99.9¢	$69	+$0	Trade ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	20.0¢	$67	-$2,914	Trade ↗
Will "The Debut" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	80.0¢	$66	+$3	Trade ↗
Will Erika Kirk announce a presidential run before 2027?	No	93.5¢	$33	+$1	Trade ↗
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31?	No	92.0¢	$31	+$1	Trade ↗
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States?	No	91.0¢	$30	+$2	Trade ↗
Will Barack Obama announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	94.7¢	$27	+$1	Trade ↗
Will Barack Obama be arrested before 2027?	No	92.6¢	$12	+$1	Trade ↗
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?	No	92.0¢	$10	+$0	Trade ↗
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31?	No	95.0¢	$5	+$0	Trade ↗
Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?	No	94.9¢	$5	+$0	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party win the AZ-03 House seat?	Yes	0.5¢	$5	-$1	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party win the IN-01 House seat?	Yes	3.0¢	$3	-$1	Trade ↗
Will Michelle Obama announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	92.6¢	$2	+$0	Trade ↗
Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026?	No	96.1¢	$2	+$0	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-19 House seat?	No	3.0¢	$2	-$0	Trade ↗
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	No	82.0¢	$1	+$0	Trade ↗
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 410m and 420m?	Yes	11.1¢	$0	-$164	Trade ↗
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 980m and 1000m by August 31?	Yes	9.1¢	$0	-$261	Trade ↗
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 280m and 290m?	Yes	11.1¢	$0	-$404	Trade ↗
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 320m and 330m?	Yes	11.1¢	$0	-$375	Trade ↗
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 400m and 410m?	Yes	11.1¢	$0	-$171	Trade ↗
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 400m by August 31?	Yes	14.3¢	$0	-$176	Trade ↗
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 300m and 310m?	Yes	11.1¢	$0	-$385	Trade ↗
Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be less than 200m by August 31?	Yes	20.0¢	$0	-$66	Trade ↗
Will "Insidious: Out of the Further" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 25m?	Yes	83.0¢	$0	-$332	Trade ↗
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 290m and 300m?	Yes	11.1¢	$0	-$453	Trade ↗
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 1040m and 1060m by August 31?	Yes	9.1¢	$0	-$273	Trade ↗
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 330m and 340m?	Yes	11.1¢	$0	-$343	Trade ↗
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 390m and 400m?	Yes	11.1¢	$0	-$172	Trade ↗
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 350m?	Yes	11.1¢	$0	-$110	Trade ↗
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 350m and 360m?	Yes	14.9¢	$0	-$2,822	Trade ↗
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	Yes	97.5¢	$0	-$5,388	Trade ↗
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 700m and 800m by August 31?	Yes	14.3¢	$0	-$176	Trade ↗
Will "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 62m and 67m?	Yes	16.7¢	$0	-$42	Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

Time	Market	Side	Outcome	Price	Size
10d ago	Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 5th Weekend Box Office be at least 26m?	BUY	No	99.2¢	$29,760
11d ago	Fight to Go the Distance?	BUY	No	99.9¢	$12,471
24d ago	Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Elimination Round	BUY	Team Yandex	98.7¢	$18,746
25d ago	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 1080m by August 31?	BUY	No	99.0¢	$20,913
25d ago	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 1080m by August 31?	BUY	No	99.0¢	$49,500