lastminwin

0xb5d19b53c973be1097119c9ddc48fcb18fff6e35· stats updated 2h ago

Realized PnL

-$8,961

closed + open positions

Return on capital

realized PnL ÷ capital deployed

Win rate

40%

2 of 5 resolved

Resolved markets

Portfolio value

$964,430

Capital deployed

$3,737,807

lifetime cost of all positions

Tracked whale volume

$114,033

volume seen by WhaleWatcher

Open positions

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 0.0/30Return 0.0/25Consistency 0.0/25Sample size 0.0/20Concentration 0.0Total 0.0 / 100

Current positions

Market	Outcome	Avg price	Value	Unrealized PnL	Trade
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	77.7¢	$89,452	+$1,969	Trade ↗
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	77.2¢	$86,568	+$7,496	Trade ↗
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	84.6¢	$71,401	-$5,195	Trade ↗
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	87.7¢	$69,356	+$651	Trade ↗
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	92.8¢	$52,284	+$384	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	68.0¢	$51,152	+$2,856	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	61.1¢	$49,419	+$4,010	Trade ↗
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	90.8¢	$47,375	-$723	Trade ↗
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	87.9¢	$47,135	-$1,219	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	63.2¢	$39,280	+$800	Trade ↗
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	87.7¢	$38,413	+$1,984	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	36.8¢	$30,784	+$581	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	69.3¢	$30,170	-$2,760	Trade ↗
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	44.7¢	$26,358	-$449	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Yes	82.0¢	$23,319	-$143	Trade ↗
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	99.7¢	$19,990	+$58	Trade ↗
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	86.9¢	$18,555	+$93	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	43.1¢	$17,995	-$682	Trade ↗
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	83.8¢	$16,789	-$160	Trade ↗
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	29.5¢	$16,371	-$3,364	Trade ↗
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	73.0¢	$15,100	+$500	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	16.3¢	$13,558	+$2,495	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	52.0¢	$11,948	+$2,605	Trade ↗
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	95.7¢	$11,214	+$62	Trade ↗
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Yes	13.1¢	$10,150	+$951	Trade ↗
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	72.0¢	$7,200	$0	Trade ↗
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	21.3¢	$4,950	-$1,450	Trade ↗
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	5.0¢	$4,724	+$62	Trade ↗
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	2.6¢	$4,001	+$144	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	29.7¢	$2,974	+$766	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	No	9.0¢	$2,550	-$150	Trade ↗
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	0.7¢	$2,450	+$1,551	Trade ↗
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	2.5¢	$2,363	+$462	Trade ↗
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	0.2¢	$2,300	+$1,900	Trade ↗
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	Yes	6.0¢	$2,120	-$2,680	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	11.0¢	$2,031	+$244	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?	No	8.0¢	$2,000	+$0	Trade ↗
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	3.0¢	$1,998	-$18	Trade ↗
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	14.3¢	$1,923	+$228	Trade ↗
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1.5¢	$1,615	-$60	Trade ↗
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	1.9¢	$1,585	+$17	Trade ↗
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	7.5¢	$1,300	-$200	Trade ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	13.7¢	$1,288	-$1,922	Trade ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	2.5¢	$1,225	-$22	Trade ↗
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by March 31, 2027?	Yes	22.0¢	$1,076	+$183	Trade ↗
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	1.5¢	$1,010	+$168	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	5.3¢	$940	-$119	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-07 House seat?	Yes	20.0¢	$770	+$70	Trade ↗
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	0.8¢	$731	+$185	Trade ↗
Will Trump endorse any candidate for President before 2027?	No	93.0¢	$644	+$25	Trade ↗
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	0.6¢	$550	-$48	Trade ↗
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	0.8¢	$517	+$53	Trade ↗
Will Candace Owens win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	0.3¢	$500	-$100	Trade ↗
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	0.8¢	$395	+$177	Trade ↗
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1.9¢	$290	-$90	Trade ↗
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	2.0¢	$255	-$354	Trade ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	0.6¢	$250	-$400	Trade ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?	Yes	1.2¢	$230	+$26	Trade ↗
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	0.2¢	$225	+$125	Trade ↗
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	1.0¢	$195	-$115	Trade ↗
Will Marco Rubio be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	No	70.0¢	$186	+$4	Trade ↗
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	0.8¢	$180	+$20	Trade ↗
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	2.5¢	$155	-$95	Trade ↗
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	Yes	16.0¢	$115	-$1,485	Trade ↗
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	0.6¢	$110	-$10	Trade ↗
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	0.2¢	$71	+$30	Trade ↗
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	0.3¢	$53	+$8	Trade ↗
Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2028?	Yes	25.0¢	$51	-$24	Trade ↗
Will J.D. Vance be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	No	94.0¢	$50	-$0	Trade ↗
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	0.1¢	$50	$0	Trade ↗
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	0.1¢	$50	$0	Trade ↗
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	0.3¢	$15	+$2	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-16 House seat?	Yes	18.0¢	$12	+$2	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat?	Yes	15.0¢	$12	+$6	Trade ↗
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	0.7¢	$10	-$131	Trade ↗
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	1.6¢	$1	+$0	Trade ↗
Will Zack Polanski win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?	Yes	22.0¢	$0	-$1,100	Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

Time	Market	Side	Outcome	Price	Size
8h ago	Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	BUY	No	83.0¢	$11,003
6d ago	Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	BUY	No	81.0¢	$20,442
6d ago	Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	BUY	No	88.3¢	$15,749
11d ago	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BUY	Yes	85.2¢	$17,040
37d ago	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	BUY	No	78.0¢	$11,670
39d ago	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	BUY	No	99.7¢	$11,729
47d ago	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	BUY	No	88.0¢	$26,400