0x84d4…77a9

88Qualified whaleProven trader

0x84d4f0a864c647b88635c0e299da30d7606377a9· stats updated 3d ago

Realized PnL

+$234,976

closed + open positions

Return on capital

34%

realized PnL ÷ capital deployed

Win rate

100%

500 of 500 resolved

Resolved markets

500

Portfolio value

$30,105

Capital deployed

$682,545

lifetime cost of all positions

Tracked whale volume

$12,884

volume seen by WhaleWatcher

Open positions

411

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 18.2/30Return 25.0/25Consistency 25.0/25Sample size 20.0/20Concentration 0.0Total 88.2 / 100

Current positions

Market	Outcome	Avg price	Value	Unrealized PnL	Trade
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	83.0¢	$1,532	+$45	Trade ↗
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	68.7¢	$1,285	+$50	Trade ↗
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?	Yes	68.0¢	$1,187	-$254	Trade ↗
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	80.3¢	$1,125	+$81	Trade ↗
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	No	61.3¢	$1,045	+$295	Trade ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	57.2¢	$1,003	-$157	Trade ↗
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?	No	72.5¢	$892	+$35	Trade ↗
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	80.0¢	$791	+$107	Trade ↗
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	No	72.0¢	$625	+$125	Trade ↗
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	83.1¢	$532	+$11	Trade ↗
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	84.3¢	$516	-$12	Trade ↗
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?	No	70.7¢	$507	+$47	Trade ↗
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	37.5¢	$494	-$28	Trade ↗
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?	No	80.1¢	$473	+$75	Trade ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	55.8¢	$449	-$47	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	72.1¢	$437	-$99	Trade ↗
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	Yes	25.0¢	$434	+$320	Trade ↗
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	35.6¢	$331	-$4	Trade ↗
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open?	Yes	22.4¢	$328	+$28	Trade ↗
Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $65B by December 31?	No	88.0¢	$313	-$19	Trade ↗
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	9.0¢	$299	-$190	Trade ↗
Genoa: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Maximo Zeitune	Maximo Zeitune	51.0¢	$294	-$6	Trade ↗
Genoa: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Maximo Zeitune	Enrico Dalla Valle	51.0¢	$294	-$6	Trade ↗
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	58.0¢	$292	-$43	Trade ↗
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	55.9¢	$260	+$3	Trade ↗
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?	Yes	69.0¢	$245	+$45	Trade ↗
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	87.6¢	$240	+$26	Trade ↗
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	76.9¢	$239	+$25	Trade ↗
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?	No	82.2¢	$234	+$37	Trade ↗
Istanbul 3: Christian Langmo vs Arda Azkara	Arda Azkara	50.8¢	$228	-$4	Trade ↗
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	No	81.0¢	$216	+$16	Trade ↗
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	65.0¢	$209	+$57	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Yes	30.6¢	$205	-$153	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	51.4¢	$204	+$39	Trade ↗
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	17.3¢	$194	-$47	Trade ↗
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	53.6¢	$187	-$9	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	No	87.4¢	$181	+$21	Trade ↗
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	No	63.3¢	$177	-$1,213	Trade ↗
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	56.8¢	$168	+$48	Trade ↗
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be at least $2.5T?	Yes	6.0¢	$157	+$57	Trade ↗
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?	No	57.6¢	$148	+$57	Trade ↗
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?	No	95.0¢	$144	-$2	Trade ↗
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?	No	89.9¢	$141	+$7	Trade ↗
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026?	No	80.6¢	$140	+$13	Trade ↗
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	50.0¢	$140	+$67	Trade ↗
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?	Yes	44.5¢	$139	+$60	Trade ↗
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	No	75.4¢	$139	+$22	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T?	Yes	32.3¢	$130	+$30	Trade ↗
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?	Yes	87.3¢	$129	+$9	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T?	No	63.0¢	$126	+$39	Trade ↗
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?	No	69.3¢	$123	+$23	Trade ↗
Will Grüne win between 14% and 17% of all valid second votes?	Yes	40.0¢	$119	+$19	Trade ↗
Will the highest temperature during Burning Man 2026 be 87°F or 88°F?	Yes	81.8¢	$117	+$17	Trade ↗
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Over/Under 5%?	Over	59.0¢	$116	+$28	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day?	No	76.0¢	$115	+$15	Trade ↗
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	86.0¢	$114	+$14	Trade ↗
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $25B by December 31?	No	83.4¢	$113	+$13	Trade ↗
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	No	85.2¢	$112	+$16	Trade ↗
Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in September?	No	89.1¢	$112	+$12	Trade ↗
Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $75B by December 31?	No	79.9¢	$111	+$3	Trade ↗
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	32.3¢	$111	+$11	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?	Yes	83.0¢	$108	-$10	Trade ↗
Will Extended launch a token by September 30 2026?	No	93.4¢	$106	+$6	Trade ↗
Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	18.4¢	$106	+$50	Trade ↗
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	99.0¢	$106	+$1	Trade ↗
Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	88.8¢	$106	+$6	Trade ↗
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	97.5¢	$106	+$2	Trade ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	98.4¢	$105	+$1	Trade ↗
Will annual inflation be 3.5% in August?	No	81.2¢	$105	+$5	Trade ↗
Outstanding lead actress in a limited or anthology series or movie?	No	55.1¢	$104	+$4	Trade ↗
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?	No	88.7¢	$104	+$4	Trade ↗
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?	Yes	93.0¢	$103	+$3	Trade ↗
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	80.0¢	$102	-$1	Trade ↗
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?	No	92.9¢	$102	+$2	Trade ↗
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	40.9¢	$101	-$129	Trade ↗
Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?	No	89.2¢	$101	+$1	Trade ↗
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	80.7¢	$100	+$0	Trade ↗
Will "The Pitt" win 6 or 7 awards at the Emmys?	No	96.3¢	$100	-$0	Trade ↗
Spain snap election called in 2026?	No	84.0¢	$98	-$2	Trade ↗
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	No	86.3¢	$97	+$7	Trade ↗
Will Christian Democrats (KD) win between 7% and 9% of all valid votes?	Yes	12.6¢	$92	+$47	Trade ↗
Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Yes	16.8¢	$91	-$15	Trade ↗
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	53.5¢	$90	+$10	Trade ↗
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win 105-109 seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	No	66.6¢	$89	-$11	Trade ↗
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s US Open?	Yes	8.9¢	$88	-$12	Trade ↗
Will Stephen Root – “Widow’s Bay” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actor in a comedy series?	No	71.2¢	$87	-$14	Trade ↗
Will "The Pitt" win 4 or 5 awards at the Emmys?	No	58.0¢	$87	-$13	Trade ↗
Will CDU win less than 8% of all valid second votes?	Yes	32.9¢	$87	-$13	Trade ↗
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	No	70.6¢	$86	+$13	Trade ↗
Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	90.4¢	$85	-$1	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	Yes	21.3¢	$84	+$45	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day?	Yes	8.6¢	$83	-$17	Trade ↗
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?	No	65.8¢	$83	-$140	Trade ↗
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	73.4¢	$81	+$2	Trade ↗
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	64.4¢	$81	+$23	Trade ↗
Extended listed on Revolut within 30 days of TGE?	No	83.0¢	$78	-$5	Trade ↗
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	No	73.0¢	$77	-$22	Trade ↗
Will Manchester United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	No	89.0¢	$76	+$4	Trade ↗
Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	No	89.0¢	$76	+$4	Trade ↗
Will the Green Party (MP) win the fourth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	No	87.0¢	$76	-$5	Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

Time	Market	Side	Outcome	Price	Size
27d ago	Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	SELL	No	86.0¢	$12,884