lava-lava

88Qualified whaleProven trader

0x629bc4a1e53e1d475beb7ea3d388791e96dd995a· stats updated 2d ago

Realized PnL

+$2,583,142

closed + open positions

Return on capital

15%

realized PnL ÷ capital deployed

Win rate

100%

500 of 500 resolved

Resolved markets

500

Portfolio value

$140,520

Capital deployed

$17,023,928

lifetime cost of all positions

Tracked whale volume

$72,142

volume seen by WhaleWatcher

Open positions

161

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 30.0/30Return 12.6/25Consistency 25.0/25Sample size 20.0/20Concentration 0.0Total 87.6 / 100

Current positions

Market	Outcome	Avg price	Value	Unrealized PnL	Trade
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	Yes	29.3¢	$15,216	+$2,828	Trade ↗
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	44.9¢	$12,626	+$1,511	Trade ↗
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	36.6¢	$8,508	+$1,773	Trade ↗
Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	71.0¢	$7,720	$0	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	No	59.9¢	$7,688	+$1,059	Trade ↗
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	23.5¢	$6,409	+$95	Trade ↗
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	No	28.5¢	$5,750	+$1,064	Trade ↗
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?	Yes	59.1¢	$5,362	+$563	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	No	31.2¢	$5,150	+$979	Trade ↗
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	21.2¢	$4,115	+$406	Trade ↗
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?	No	90.0¢	$3,586	+$304	Trade ↗
Blue tsunami in 2026?	Yes	50.1¢	$3,505	+$600	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	55.4¢	$3,344	+$680	Trade ↗
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	77.0¢	$3,266	-$156	Trade ↗
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	29.4¢	$3,036	+$55	Trade ↗
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	48.2¢	$2,698	+$157	Trade ↗
Will Tomáš Vohryzka be the next Mayor of Ústí nad Labem?	Yes	86.6¢	$2,478	+$254	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	30.1¢	$2,022	+$25	Trade ↗
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	19.0¢	$1,650	-$250	Trade ↗
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	29.7¢	$1,568	+$43	Trade ↗
Iran nuclear test before 2027?	No	88.5¢	$1,330	+$106	Trade ↗
Will Petr Hlaváček be the next Mayor of Prague?	Yes	46.4¢	$1,329	+$670	Trade ↗
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	25.0¢	$1,275	+$25	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	14.9¢	$1,225	+$290	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	No	31.2¢	$1,156	-$25	Trade ↗
Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?	Yes	85.0¢	$939	-$6	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	27.9¢	$939	+$259	Trade ↗
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?	No	75.0¢	$933	+$181	Trade ↗
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?	No	83.0¢	$908	+$119	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	27.0¢	$897	+$260	Trade ↗
Will Lorenzo Pazolini win the Governor of Espírito Santo election?	Yes	54.9¢	$831	+$345	Trade ↗
Blue wave in 2026?	Yes	57.9¢	$781	+$242	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-15 House seat?	No	14.0¢	$726	-$55	Trade ↗
Will Ricardo Ferraço win the Governor of Espírito Santo election?	No	34.0¢	$717	+$461	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	No	13.1¢	$698	+$228	Trade ↗
Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	19.1¢	$687	-$110	Trade ↗
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?	No	61.3¢	$679	+$67	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party win the TX-15 House seat?	Yes	15.2¢	$624	-$136	Trade ↗
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	65.3¢	$570	+$187	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party win the ME-02 House seat?	No	39.3¢	$565	+$98	Trade ↗
Will Allyson win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?	Yes	70.7¢	$554	-$1	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party win the MO-02 House seat?	Yes	23.0¢	$517	+$187	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	49.0¢	$483	+$132	Trade ↗
Closer Senate Race: South Dakota or New Mexico?	New Mexico	13.8¢	$458	+$98	Trade ↗
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	Yes	77.6¢	$445	+$53	Trade ↗
Will Cadu de Lula win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?	No	70.0¢	$402	+$14	Trade ↗
Will UTJ win 7-8 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	28.4¢	$399	+$61	Trade ↗
Will Diana Javorčíková win the 2026 Banská Bystrica mayoral election?	Yes	51.0¢	$396	+$45	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-35 House seat?	No	35.0¢	$383	-$6	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party win the TX-35 House seat?	Yes	34.0¢	$383	+$6	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party win the MN-01 House seat?	No	25.0¢	$379	+$104	Trade ↗
Sweden snap election called in 2026?	No	79.0¢	$378	+$33	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	25.0¢	$376	+$34	Trade ↗
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	5.0¢	$352	+$14	Trade ↗
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad?	Yes	62.0¢	$349	+$66	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party win the AL-02 House seat?	Yes	30.0¢	$339	+$6	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party win the AL-02 House seat?	No	31.0¢	$333	-$11	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party win the ME-02 House seat?	Yes	38.4¢	$332	+$58	Trade ↗
Will Professora Dorinha win the 2026 Tocantins gubernatorial election?	No	37.0¢	$329	+$189	Trade ↗
Will US win 45-50% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	33.0¢	$318	+$59	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	No	25.2¢	$317	+$28	Trade ↗
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	4.3¢	$314	+$5	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-14 House election by 15%-20%?	Yes	22.4¢	$306	+$126	Trade ↗
Will Miroslava Ferancová be the next Mayor of Olomouc?	No	10.5¢	$303	+$270	Trade ↗
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	No	52.8¢	$301	+$30	Trade ↗
Will US win 55% or more of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	85.0¢	$287	+$35	Trade ↗
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	No	14.5¢	$278	-$44	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-12 House election by 20%-25%?	Yes	12.8¢	$247	+$157	Trade ↗
Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	26.0¢	$245	+$97	Trade ↗
Blue tsunami in 2026?	No	35.0¢	$230	+$26	Trade ↗
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	67.0¢	$215	+$49	Trade ↗
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	18.0¢	$212	+$30	Trade ↗
Will Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability! win the third most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	53.0¢	$210	+$53	Trade ↗
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Pará?	Yes	76.0¢	$210	+$31	Trade ↗
Will Shas win less than 6% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	21.1¢	$205	+$102	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-01 House seat?	Yes	14.0¢	$195	+$55	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-02 House election by 45%-50%?	Yes	17.8¢	$183	+$65	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OH-11 House election by 65%-70%?	Yes	18.6¢	$181	+$83	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 UT-03 House election by 30%-35%?	Yes	15.5¢	$180	+$100	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party win the NY-01 House seat?	No	14.0¢	$180	+$47	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-03 House election by 5%-10%?	Yes	16.6¢	$177	+$64	Trade ↗
Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	0.1¢	$173	+$158	Trade ↗
Spain General Election: PP + Vox get 50%+ of Vote?	Yes	44.0¢	$173	-$48	Trade ↗
Will Vicentinho Júnior win the 2026 Tocantins gubernatorial election?	Yes	35.7¢	$165	+$97	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party win the NC-11 House seat?	Yes	17.0¢	$154	-$15	Trade ↗
Will Shas win 6-7% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	5.0¢	$148	+$124	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?	Yes	69.0¢	$146	+$32	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat?	Yes	31.9¢	$141	+$26	Trade ↗
Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	38.0¢	$139	+$54	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party win the MN-01 House seat?	Yes	25.0¢	$125	+$36	Trade ↗
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	29.0¢	$125	+$38	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	30.0¢	$120	+$9	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-06 House election by 10%-15%?	Yes	1.0¢	$119	+$113	Trade ↗
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	65.0¢	$117	+$18	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election by 35% or more?	Yes	2.8¢	$109	+$73	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party win the KY-06 House seat?	Yes	34.0¢	$109	+$28	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party win the OH-07 House seat?	Yes	17.0¢	$105	-$65	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-07 House seat?	No	17.0¢	$105	-$65	Trade ↗
Will United Serbia win the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election by 10% or more?	Yes	15.5¢	$102	+$41	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NH-01 House election by 5%-10%?	Yes	16.6¢	$101	+$41	Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

Time	Market	Side	Outcome	Price	Size
2d ago	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	SELL	Yes	70.0¢	$11,003
2d ago	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	BUY	Yes	69.5¢	$11,294
32d ago	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY	No	44.0¢	$26,132
38d ago	Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	BUY	No	76.0¢	$13,504
74d ago	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	BUY	Yes	50.0¢	$10,208