lava-lava

86Qualified whaleProven trader

0x629bc4a1e53e1d475beb7ea3d388791e96dd995a· stats updated 2d ago

Realized PnL

+$2,355,774

closed + open positions

Return on capital

14%

realized PnL ÷ capital deployed

Win rate

100%

500 of 500 resolved

Resolved markets

500

Portfolio value

$254,553

Capital deployed

$17,360,187

lifetime cost of all positions

Tracked whale volume

$10,208

volume seen by WhaleWatcher

Open positions

402

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 30.0/30Return 11.3/25Consistency 25.0/25Sample size 20.0/20Concentration 0.0Total 86.3 / 100

Current positions

Market	Outcome	Avg price	Value	Unrealized PnL	Trade
Will SPD win at least 9% of all valid second votes?	Yes	19.3¢	$13,962	+$11,254	Trade ↗
Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?	No	49.6¢	$11,190	+$624	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	49.6¢	$9,997	+$185	Trade ↗
Will AfD win between 42% and 45% of all valid second votes?	Yes	86.9¢	$9,193	+$1,193	Trade ↗
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SPD or Grüne?	SPD	64.0¢	$8,652	+$3,071	Trade ↗
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	29.9¢	$7,212	+$672	Trade ↗
Will SPD win between 7% and 9% of all valid second votes?	No	17.6¢	$6,476	+$5,326	Trade ↗
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?	No	76.8¢	$5,949	+$575	Trade ↗
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	No	47.4¢	$4,926	+$755	Trade ↗
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	84.0¢	$4,779	+$486	Trade ↗
Will CDU win less than 8% of all valid second votes?	No	62.0¢	$4,617	-$39	Trade ↗
Iran nuclear test before 2027?	No	88.5¢	$4,206	+$308	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	48.1¢	$4,148	+$118	Trade ↗
Will Grüne win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?	No	48.3¢	$4,126	+$2,132	Trade ↗
Will AfD win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	24.1¢	$3,867	+$991	Trade ↗
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?	No	90.0¢	$3,666	+$277	Trade ↗
Will AfD win 38-41 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?	Yes	69.7¢	$3,449	+$1,037	Trade ↗
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	64.0¢	$3,132	+$986	Trade ↗
Will Linke win less than 9% of all valid second votes?	Yes	4.0¢	$3,093	+$2,964	Trade ↗
Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?	Yes	45.5¢	$3,038	+$157	Trade ↗
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	9.6¢	$2,955	+$1,353	Trade ↗
Will SPD win at least 31% of all valid second votes?	No	59.9¢	$2,779	-$549	Trade ↗
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 10%?	Over	36.7¢	$2,729	-$449	Trade ↗
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: SPD Over/Under 28%?	Under	29.9¢	$2,477	-$608	Trade ↗
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	81.9¢	$2,410	+$433	Trade ↗
Will Guilherme Derrite win the most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?	No	53.7¢	$2,396	+$98	Trade ↗
Will Grüne win at least 7% of all valid second votes?	Yes	8.0¢	$2,333	+$2,145	Trade ↗
Will BSW win between 3% and 5% of all valid second votes?	No	78.0¢	$2,219	+$486	Trade ↗
Will BSW win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?	Yes	79.0¢	$2,219	+$463	Trade ↗
Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win less than 27% of all valid votes?	Yes	22.2¢	$2,210	+$424	Trade ↗
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	69.8¢	$2,040	-$374	Trade ↗
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?	Yes	60.2¢	$2,021	+$165	Trade ↗
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	30.6¢	$2,017	+$321	Trade ↗
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: More Votes to CDU or Linke?	CDU	30.4¢	$1,987	-$534	Trade ↗
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Linke Over/Under 12%?	Under	44.7¢	$1,862	+$1,030	Trade ↗
Will Linke win between 12% and 15% of all valid second votes?	No	58.4¢	$1,849	+$764	Trade ↗
Will BSW win less than 3% of all valid second votes?	No	77.9¢	$1,843	+$407	Trade ↗
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	78.1¢	$1,833	+$9	Trade ↗
Will Jaques Wagner win the second-most votes in the 2026 Bahia Senate election?	No	39.7¢	$1,712	-$149	Trade ↗
Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win between 27% and 30% of all valid votes?	No	47.4¢	$1,673	+$104	Trade ↗
Will AfD win 28-31 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	No	44.5¢	$1,656	-$79	Trade ↗
Will Grüne win between 14% and 17% of all valid second votes?	No	50.9¢	$1,548	+$46	Trade ↗
Will SPD win the third most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?	Yes	46.3¢	$1,474	+$784	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	51.4¢	$1,437	+$107	Trade ↗
NATO article 5 before 2027?	No	77.9¢	$1,434	+$226	Trade ↗
Will SPD win 22-25 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	No	40.7¢	$1,414	-$80	Trade ↗
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	19.3¢	$1,376	+$77	Trade ↗
Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	2.3¢	$1,319	-$1,269	Trade ↗
Will Grüne win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	No	57.6¢	$1,288	-$60	Trade ↗
Will SPD win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?	No	58.8¢	$1,250	+$512	Trade ↗
Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?	No	45.5¢	$1,245	+$77	Trade ↗
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 23%?	Under	50.6¢	$1,213	+$597	Trade ↗
Will Leila do Vôlei win the second-most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?	No	49.0¢	$1,184	-$265	Trade ↗
Will Linke win between 11% and 14% of all valid second votes?	No	54.2¢	$1,182	+$188	Trade ↗
Berlin State Election: Linke Over/Under 20%?	Under	38.3¢	$1,180	+$229	Trade ↗
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	12.0¢	$1,172	+$772	Trade ↗
Will Eduardo Braide win the Governor of Maranhão election?	Yes	67.6¢	$1,154	+$47	Trade ↗
Will Linke win less than 17% of all valid second votes?	Yes	10.5¢	$1,130	+$564	Trade ↗
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?	No	55.9¢	$1,128	+$136	Trade ↗
Will Linke win the third-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	No	29.0¢	$1,126	-$182	Trade ↗
Will Grüne win less than 14% of all valid second votes?	Yes	18.4¢	$1,105	+$179	Trade ↗
Will the AfD win the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary election by 20-25%?	No	56.0¢	$1,089	+$467	Trade ↗
Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes?	No	61.2¢	$1,035	-$86	Trade ↗
Will Roseana Sarney win the most votes in the 2026 Maranhão Senate election?	No	42.0¢	$962	-$302	Trade ↗
Will João Campos win the Pernambuco Governor election?	Yes	32.1¢	$958	+$138	Trade ↗
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?	No	69.0¢	$958	-$192	Trade ↗
Will SPD win 26-29 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	32.1¢	$931	+$39	Trade ↗
Will Helder win the most votes in the 2026 Pará Senate election?	No	22.3¢	$914	+$235	Trade ↗
Will Raquel Lyra win the Pernambuco Governor election?	No	31.7¢	$914	+$121	Trade ↗
Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	77.0¢	$900	+$44	Trade ↗
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?	No	75.0¢	$883	+$131	Trade ↗
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: More Votes to BSW or Grüne?	BSW	34.0¢	$875	+$200	Trade ↗
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	No	55.9¢	$870	+$145	Trade ↗
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?	No	83.0¢	$870	+$81	Trade ↗
Will Alexandre Guimarães win the second-most votes in the 2026 Tocantins Senate election?	No	66.2¢	$858	-$403	Trade ↗
Will Alan Rick win the 2026 Acre gubernatorial election?	Yes	51.9¢	$852	+$155	Trade ↗
Will Centre Party (C) win less than 5% of all valid votes?	No	78.0¢	$840	+$128	Trade ↗
Will Rayssa Furlan win the most votes in the 2026 Amapá Senate election?	No	18.7¢	$760	+$13	Trade ↗
Berlin State Election: AfD Over/Under 17%?	Under	31.7¢	$728	-$30	Trade ↗
Will Linke win between 20% and 23% of all valid second votes?	No	65.3¢	$725	+$19	Trade ↗
Will Jaques Wagner win the second-most votes in the 2026 Bahia Senate election?	Yes	59.0¢	$705	+$50	Trade ↗
Blue wave in 2026?	Yes	57.9¢	$697	+$159	Trade ↗
Will Left Party (V) win between 7% and 9% of all valid votes?	No	42.6¢	$693	-$139	Trade ↗
Will Rui Costa win the most votes in the 2026 Bahia Senate election?	No	18.1¢	$688	+$80	Trade ↗
Berlin State Election: More Votes to AfD or Grüne?	Grüne	31.7¢	$685	-$16	Trade ↗
Will Christian Democrats (KD) win between 5% and 7% of all valid votes?	No	39.9¢	$658	-$204	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	49.0¢	$657	+$20	Trade ↗
Sweden Parliamentary Election: S Over/Under 31%?	Under	52.0¢	$653	+$223	Trade ↗
Will BSW win less than 3% of all valid second votes?	No	68.0¢	$629	+$9	Trade ↗
Will Moderate Party (M) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes?	No	72.2¢	$622	+$11	Trade ↗
Will AfD win 32-35 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	28.7¢	$621	-$78	Trade ↗
Will Marcio Bittar win the most votes in the 2026 Acre Senate election?	No	57.9¢	$613	-$56	Trade ↗
Will AfD win 32-34 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	No	71.7¢	$609	+$27	Trade ↗
Will AfD win at least 45% of all valid second votes?	No	88.9¢	$595	+$66	Trade ↗
Will Linke win 40 or more seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	26.6¢	$576	+$139	Trade ↗
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	47.0¢	$572	+$50	Trade ↗
Will Eduardo Braga win the most votes in the 2026 Amazonas Senate election?	No	24.8¢	$557	-$153	Trade ↗
Will CDU win between 23% and 26% of all valid second votes?	No	61.0¢	$555	+$216	Trade ↗
Will Linke win between 9% and 12% of all valid second votes?	No	46.3¢	$551	+$281	Trade ↗
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	65.3¢	$549	+$165	Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

Time	Market	Side	Outcome	Price	Size
29d ago	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	BUY	Yes	50.0¢	$10,208