seal7

74Qualified whaleProven trader

0x2b9dbf4b6e0e11309a9d6d2a09b72f65f652adc0· stats updated 2d ago

Realized PnL

+$243,234

closed + open positions

Return on capital

13%

realized PnL ÷ capital deployed

Win rate

96%

481 of 500 resolved

Resolved markets

500

Portfolio value

$87,609

Capital deployed

$1,900,042

lifetime cost of all positions

Tracked whale volume

$34,983

volume seen by WhaleWatcher

Open positions

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 18.5/30Return 10.7/25Consistency 25.0/25Sample size 20.0/20Concentration 0.0Total 74.2 / 100

Current positions

Market	Outcome	Avg price	Value	Unrealized PnL	Trade
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	73.0¢	$13,900	-$700	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	64.0¢	$13,500	+$700	Trade ↗
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	85.0¢	$10,020	-$180	Trade ↗
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	68.6¢	$7,309	-$264	Trade ↗
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	72.0¢	$6,250	-$950	Trade ↗
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Pará?	Yes	84.0¢	$4,370	+$245	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	65.0¢	$3,609	+$108	Trade ↗
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	59.7¢	$3,489	+$1,134	Trade ↗
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	69.0¢	$2,729	+$20	Trade ↗
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	69.0¢	$2,286	+$49	Trade ↗
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	65.4¢	$2,222	+$358	Trade ↗
Will Allyson win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?	Yes	70.5¢	$1,758	-$53	Trade ↗
Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	Yes	43.9¢	$1,757	-$385	Trade ↗
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election?	Yes	57.1¢	$1,626	+$251	Trade ↗
Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	67.0¢	$1,602	+$90	Trade ↗
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	Yes	29.0¢	$1,508	+$26	Trade ↗
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%?	Yes	46.9¢	$1,376	+$374	Trade ↗
Will Jeremy Matlow win the Tallahassee mayoral election?	No	68.1¢	$1,334	-$2	Trade ↗
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	16.6¢	$1,326	+$330	Trade ↗
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	No	71.0¢	$1,226	+$42	Trade ↗
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Yes	67.7¢	$1,096	-$2,059	Trade ↗
Will the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	Yes	23.0¢	$808	-$317	Trade ↗
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	No	42.9¢	$613	+$329	Trade ↗
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	No	37.9¢	$586	+$123	Trade ↗
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	Yes	16.0¢	$412	-$787	Trade ↗
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	No	29.0¢	$348	+$6	Trade ↗
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	11.1¢	$265	-$63	Trade ↗
Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	36.6¢	$139	-$2	Trade ↗
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	53.0¢	$109	+$9	Trade ↗
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Yes	35.0¢	$34	+$9	Trade ↗
Will Allyson win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial second round by at least 15%?	Yes	6.0¢	$4	-$0	Trade ↗
Will the International Association of Judges win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	1.4¢	$0	-$1	Trade ↗
Will Debbie Wasserman Schultz be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?	No	29.5¢	$0	-$717	Trade ↗
Will Elijah Manley be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?	Yes	28.0¢	$0	-$97	Trade ↗
Will Tukaka George Tamarua Ama win the Ngatangiia constituency in the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?	No	5.4¢	$0	-$76	Trade ↗
Will Chow Hang-tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	1.4¢	$0	-$1	Trade ↗
Will AfD win 42-45 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?	Yes	29.7¢	$0	-$647	Trade ↗
Will John Larson be the Democratic nominee for CT-01?	Yes	17.1¢	$0	-$2,533	Trade ↗
Will Gentner Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	38.5¢	$0	-$309	Trade ↗
Will the International Criminal Court win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	1.4¢	$0	-$1	Trade ↗
Will the International Peace Research Association win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	1.4¢	$0	-$1	Trade ↗
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	1.8¢	$0	-$89	Trade ↗
Will Abdul El-Sayed win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?	Yes	26.4¢	$0	-$1,895	Trade ↗
Will Yad Vashem win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	1.4¢	$0	-$1	Trade ↗
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 10, 2026?	Yes	10.5¢	$0	-$142	Trade ↗
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	29.8¢	$0	-$1,186	Trade ↗
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	10.2¢	$0	-$6,071	Trade ↗
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	5.5¢	$0	-$4,002	Trade ↗
Will Donavan McKinney win the MI-13 Democratic primary by at least 16%?	Yes	10.0¢	$0	-$37	Trade ↗
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August 2026 meeting?	No	12.8¢	$0	-$138	Trade ↗
Will Megan Degenfelder win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	24.3¢	$0	-$662	Trade ↗
Will AfD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	14.2¢	$0	-$232	Trade ↗
Will Nate Pollnow be the Wisconsin Secretary of State Republican nominee?	Yes	42.7¢	$0	-$161	Trade ↗
Will Matt Little be the Democratic nominee for MN-02?	No	25.2¢	$0	-$3,138	Trade ↗
Will Haley Stevens win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?	No	28.4¢	$0	-$1,700	Trade ↗
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	18.9¢	$0	-$501	Trade ↗
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	52.1¢	$0	-$2,511	Trade ↗
Will Mark Carney win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	1.4¢	$0	-$1	Trade ↗
Will turnout in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary be 120,000 voters or higher?	Yes	30.0¢	$0	-$142	Trade ↗
Will Shenna Bellows be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?	Yes	31.4¢	$0	-$1,688	Trade ↗
Will Committee to Protect Journalists win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	1.4¢	$0	-$1	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	11.3¢	$0	-$696	Trade ↗
Will ICRC win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	1.4¢	$0	-$1	Trade ↗
Will Kyle Blomquist be the MI-01 Democratic nominee?	Yes	22.3¢	$0	-$4,561	Trade ↗
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%?	Yes	10.4¢	$0	-$45	Trade ↗
Will the Parents Circle – Families Forum win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	1.4¢	$0	-$1	Trade ↗
Will Save the Children win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	1.4¢	$0	-$1	Trade ↗
Will Jimmy Lai win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	1.4¢	$0	-$1	Trade ↗
Will Abdul El-Sayed win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?	Yes	33.2¢	$0	-$1,145	Trade ↗
Will Callie Barr be the MI-01 Democratic nominee?	No	20.0¢	$0	-$546	Trade ↗
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	1.9¢	$0	-$103	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	10.0¢	$0	-$1,047	Trade ↗
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	12.6¢	$0	-$1,422	Trade ↗
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	7.1¢	$0	-$2,433	Trade ↗
Will Count Binface win 30–40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	Yes	6.0¢	$0	-$503	Trade ↗
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–10%?	Yes	25.6¢	$0	-$43	Trade ↗
Will the International Space Station win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	1.4¢	$0	-$1	Trade ↗
Will Ilham Tohti win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	1.4¢	$0	-$1	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	6.0¢	$0	-$2,833	Trade ↗
Will Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	1.4¢	$0	-$1	Trade ↗
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	Yes	45.4¢	$0	-$666	Trade ↗
Will Andy Ogles be the TN-05 Republican nominee?	Yes	75.5¢	$0	-$765	Trade ↗
Will UNHCR win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	1.4¢	$0	-$1	Trade ↗
Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?	Yes	35.5¢	$0	-$717	Trade ↗
Will Reporters Without Borders win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	1.4¢	$0	-$1	Trade ↗
Will Jared Moskowitz win the FL-25 Democratic primary by 20–25%?	Yes	16.1¢	$0	-$39	Trade ↗
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	2.3¢	$0	-$805	Trade ↗
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	28.3¢	$0	-$1,102	Trade ↗
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?	Yes	45.0¢	$0	-$722	Trade ↗
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	77.0¢	$0	-$245	Trade ↗
Will World Central Kitchen win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	1.4¢	$0	-$1	Trade ↗
Will Nirav Shah be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?	Yes	14.0¢	$0	-$1,435	Trade ↗
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	10.0¢	$0	-$870	Trade ↗
Will Haley Stevens win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?	No	34.0¢	$0	-$224	Trade ↗
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	45.8¢	$0	-$173	Trade ↗
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	30.9¢	$0	-$2,011	Trade ↗
Will Eliott Rodriguez be the FL-27 Democratic nominee?	No	20.2¢	$0	-$264	Trade ↗
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?	Yes	12.7¢	$0	-$99	Trade ↗
Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	Yes	36.8¢	$0	-$641	Trade ↗
Will PH win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections?	Yes	27.7¢	$0	-$824	Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

Time	Market	Side	Outcome	Price	Size
3d ago	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY	No	85.0¢	$10,200
4d ago	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	BUY	No	73.0¢	$14,600
36d ago	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	SELL	Yes	76.0¢	$10,183