BikesAreTheBikes

72Qualified whaleProven trader

0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c· stats updated 1d ago

Realized PnL

+$220,557

closed + open positions

Return on capital

11%

realized PnL ÷ capital deployed

Win rate

100%

500 of 500 resolved

Resolved markets

500

Portfolio value

$59,766

Capital deployed

$1,940,290

lifetime cost of all positions

Tracked whale volume

$11,427

volume seen by WhaleWatcher

Open positions

343

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 17.7/30Return 9.5/25Consistency 25.0/25Sample size 20.0/20Concentration 0.0Total 72.2 / 100

Current positions

Market	Outcome	Avg price	Value	Unrealized PnL	Trade
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	68.0¢	$10,725	+$525	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	No	75.0¢	$5,241	+$447	Trade ↗
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	77.3¢	$2,720	+$396	Trade ↗
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	65.7¢	$2,149	+$437	Trade ↗
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	54.9¢	$1,763	+$501	Trade ↗
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?	Yes	33.0¢	$1,455	-$1,008	Trade ↗
Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia?	No	66.8¢	$1,400	+$324	Trade ↗
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	No	80.0¢	$1,353	+$116	Trade ↗
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	65.0¢	$1,336	+$444	Trade ↗
No one announced as next James Bond?	Yes	24.9¢	$1,328	-$464	Trade ↗
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?	No	96.0¢	$1,228	+$28	Trade ↗
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	53.7¢	$1,111	+$332	Trade ↗
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	No	86.0¢	$880	+$94	Trade ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?	Yes	30.0¢	$843	-$14	Trade ↗
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	38.5¢	$826	-$1,942	Trade ↗
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	No	49.0¢	$794	-$167	Trade ↗
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	93.8¢	$781	+$24	Trade ↗
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	No	31.7¢	$736	+$484	Trade ↗
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	40.6¢	$714	+$167	Trade ↗
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?	Yes	14.0¢	$686	+$360	Trade ↗
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	56.5¢	$682	+$34	Trade ↗
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	No	57.0¢	$682	+$230	Trade ↗
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	29.5¢	$679	+$131	Trade ↗
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	2.4¢	$664	+$483	Trade ↗
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	70.0¢	$646	+$63	Trade ↗
Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	20.9¢	$625	+$377	Trade ↗
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	No	67.0¢	$605	-$5	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	No	51.5¢	$574	+$149	Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	23.6¢	$573	+$434	Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	72.6¢	$498	+$38	Trade ↗
Will the Student List win 50% or more of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	67.7¢	$486	+$99	Trade ↗
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	59.3¢	$482	-$15	Trade ↗
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for President in 2028?	Yes	66.0¢	$472	-$110	Trade ↗
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	70.2¢	$428	+$40	Trade ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	57.0¢	$425	+$93	Trade ↗
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	No	66.0¢	$409	-$23	Trade ↗
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	52.2¢	$405	+$161	Trade ↗
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	No	37.0¢	$400	+$136	Trade ↗
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	59.3¢	$394	-$73	Trade ↗
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?	No	48.9¢	$378	+$79	Trade ↗
Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	55.0¢	$373	+$7	Trade ↗
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	75.5¢	$342	+$34	Trade ↗
Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	36.8¢	$319	+$173	Trade ↗
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?	Yes	55.3¢	$280	-$687	Trade ↗
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	26.7¢	$279	+$204	Trade ↗
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	No	48.4¢	$270	+$101	Trade ↗
Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	85.0¢	$270	-$13	Trade ↗
Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?	Yes	63.0¢	$268	+$21	Trade ↗
US strike on Colombia by December 31?	Yes	36.9¢	$249	-$104	Trade ↗
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	56.9¢	$248	-$21	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	No	19.0¢	$240	+$6	Trade ↗
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	0.8¢	$236	+$223	Trade ↗
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	17.0¢	$228	+$179	Trade ↗
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	No	57.1¢	$211	+$85	Trade ↗
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	36.2¢	$208	-$199	Trade ↗
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?	No	62.3¢	$204	+$1	Trade ↗
Will Ra'am be in the next Israeli government?	Yes	25.0¢	$204	+$37	Trade ↗
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	No	14.6¢	$194	-$17	Trade ↗
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027?	Yes	21.4¢	$188	+$52	Trade ↗
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	0.8¢	$179	+$166	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?	Yes	62.7¢	$179	+$53	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party win the MO-02 House seat?	No	37.0¢	$174	-$2	Trade ↗
Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	76.0¢	$170	+$17	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?	Yes	70.5¢	$169	-$38	Trade ↗
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	43.9¢	$166	+$1	Trade ↗
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	44.4¢	$162	+$60	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	Yes	49.5¢	$146	-$76	Trade ↗
Will Trump meet with Javier Milei by October 31, 2026?	No	82.0¢	$135	+$23	Trade ↗
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	18.0¢	$131	+$21	Trade ↗
Andrew Tate released from custody by December 31, 2026?	No	70.0¢	$126	+$26	Trade ↗
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	19.9¢	$125	+$1	Trade ↗
Will no next Israeli Minister of Defense be appointed by February 28, 2027?	Yes	36.4¢	$125	-$19	Trade ↗
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	0.8¢	$124	+$118	Trade ↗
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	83.0¢	$123	+$15	Trade ↗
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	14.2¢	$121	+$11	Trade ↗
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	27.7¢	$118	+$14	Trade ↗
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?	Yes	19.3¢	$117	-$20	Trade ↗
Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	52.6¢	$110	+$28	Trade ↗
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	24.0¢	$105	-$39	Trade ↗
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	No	56.8¢	$101	-$227	Trade ↗
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	No	46.0¢	$96	-$7	Trade ↗
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	Yes	6.5¢	$94	-$16	Trade ↗
Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	26.5¢	$92	-$89	Trade ↗
Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?	No	21.8¢	$90	+$7	Trade ↗
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?	No	73.0¢	$90	+$22	Trade ↗
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	23.4¢	$88	+$4	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	No	44.5¢	$88	-$32	Trade ↗
Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?	No	80.0¢	$88	+$8	Trade ↗
Will no next Israeli Minister of Finance be appointed by February 28, 2027?	No	64.0¢	$85	-$4	Trade ↗
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Yes	14.2¢	$84	-$74	Trade ↗
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be less than 150m by October 31?	No	57.0¢	$77	+$33	Trade ↗
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?	Yes	61.4¢	$74	-$306	Trade ↗
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	0.8¢	$74	+$61	Trade ↗
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	3.6¢	$72	+$56	Trade ↗
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	25.5¢	$71	-$32	Trade ↗
Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%?	Yes	28.5¢	$70	+$30	Trade ↗
Will Miloš Vučević win the next Serbia presidential election?	No	67.3¢	$65	+$13	Trade ↗
Will Microsoft launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027?	No	76.0¢	$64	-$16	Trade ↗
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?	Yes	28.5¢	$62	+$42	Trade ↗
US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	No	49.9¢	$60	-$89	Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

Time	Market	Side	Outcome	Price	Size
48d ago	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	SELL	No	99.6¢	$11,427