Outsmarter

53Qualified whaleProven trader

0x1b6022ae41ad7a0b387a88c17885c754436ca55b· stats updated 2d ago

Realized PnL

+$78,262

closed + open positions

Return on capital

12%

realized PnL ÷ capital deployed

Win rate

76%

111 of 147 resolved

Resolved markets

147

Portfolio value

$98,996

Capital deployed

$656,908

lifetime cost of all positions

Tracked whale volume

$11,236

volume seen by WhaleWatcher

Open positions

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 9.3/30Return 9.9/25Consistency 15.9/25Sample size 17.9/20Concentration 0.0Total 53.1 / 100

Current positions

Market	Outcome	Avg price	Value	Unrealized PnL	Trade
Trump out as President before 2027?	No	92.0¢	$9,620	+$420	Trade ↗
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?	No	90.6¢	$7,499	+$413	Trade ↗
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	No	90.9¢	$6,746	+$562	Trade ↗
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	81.9¢	$5,953	+$795	Trade ↗
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	88.9¢	$5,389	+$460	Trade ↗
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	78.0¢	$4,890	+$990	Trade ↗
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	83.0¢	$4,675	+$525	Trade ↗
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	Yes	62.3¢	$4,309	+$629	Trade ↗
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	90.2¢	$3,760	+$132	Trade ↗
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	Yes	55.8¢	$3,697	+$597	Trade ↗
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	83.2¢	$3,677	-$323	Trade ↗
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	No	89.2¢	$3,268	+$150	Trade ↗
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	63.0¢	$2,955	+$698	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	80.6¢	$2,776	+$356	Trade ↗
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	79.8¢	$2,692	+$317	Trade ↗
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	93.6¢	$2,681	-$288	Trade ↗
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	76.7¢	$2,620	-$449	Trade ↗
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	87.0¢	$1,670	-$70	Trade ↗
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	2.4¢	$1,616	+$185	Trade ↗
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?	No	89.7¢	$1,520	+$106	Trade ↗
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?	No	85.5¢	$1,487	+$205	Trade ↗
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	50.4¢	$1,484	-$53	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	65.0¢	$1,370	+$70	Trade ↗
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?	No	79.5¢	$1,230	+$154	Trade ↗
Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?	No	64.3¢	$1,109	-$41	Trade ↗
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	94.0¢	$977	+$37	Trade ↗
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	Yes	87.1¢	$971	+$48	Trade ↗
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	93.0¢	$945	+$15	Trade ↗
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?	No	92.9¢	$925	-$4	Trade ↗
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	21.2¢	$880	-$402	Trade ↗
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	88.0¢	$835	-$45	Trade ↗
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	No	89.0¢	$565	+$35	Trade ↗
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	65.8¢	$534	+$34	Trade ↗
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	Yes	22.1¢	$473	-$1,133	Trade ↗
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?	No	92.0¢	$458	-$3	Trade ↗
Will Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027?	No	90.6¢	$425	-$28	Trade ↗
Will any aircraft land or take off at Kyiv Boryspil Airport by October 31?	No	81.1¢	$404	+$69	Trade ↗
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?	No	95.8¢	$398	+$15	Trade ↗
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?	No	94.9¢	$347	-$1	Trade ↗
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?	No	80.0¢	$239	-$2	Trade ↗
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026?	No	72.0¢	$215	+$38	Trade ↗
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	Yes	77.0¢	$180	+$26	Trade ↗
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31?	No	86.9¢	$126	+$8	Trade ↗
Will Putin and Zelenskyy not meet by December 31, 2027?	Yes	74.4¢	$105	+$5	Trade ↗
Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the UAE by December 31, 2027?	Yes	66.3¢	$103	+$3	Trade ↗
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	3.8¢	$80	-$20	Trade ↗
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?	No	41.1¢	$56	-$144	Trade ↗
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31?	No	85.7¢	$51	+$5	Trade ↗
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	1.3¢	$12	-$88	Trade ↗
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Hungary before 2027?	Yes	0.8¢	$1	-$10	Trade ↗
Starmer out by June 26, 2026?	No	18.8¢	$0	-$100	Trade ↗
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?	No	28.0¢	$0	-$140	Trade ↗
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	48.9¢	$0	-$1,012	Trade ↗
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 24, 2026?	Yes	0.9¢	$0	-$9	Trade ↗
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026?	No	31.3¢	$0	-$100	Trade ↗
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	9.2¢	$0	-$56	Trade ↗
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?	No	70.0¢	$0	-$169	Trade ↗
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	14.0¢	$0	-$10	Trade ↗
Will Russia enter Stinky by July 31?	Yes	31.5¢	$0	-$63	Trade ↗
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	No	33.2¢	$0	-$300	Trade ↗
Starmer out by June 24, 2026?	No	30.2¢	$0	-$200	Trade ↗
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	17.0¢	$0	-$100	Trade ↗
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?	No	60.0¢	$0	-$300	Trade ↗
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?	No	41.0¢	$0	-$82	Trade ↗
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?	No	24.1¢	$0	-$200	Trade ↗
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	No	10.8¢	$0	-$30	Trade ↗
Starmer out by June 25, 2026?	No	24.0¢	$0	-$100	Trade ↗
Will Stripe have the third highest private market valuation on July 31?	Yes	83.2¢	$0	-$100	Trade ↗
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	81.1¢	$0	-$400	Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

Time	Market	Side	Outcome	Price	Size
39d ago	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	SELL	No	85.8¢	$11,236