0xFc2F4f50ce2F6045d35558A5E2D8d4b2aC6610c7-1769097007451

72Qualified whaleProven trader

0xfc2f4f50ce2f6045d35558a5e2d8d4b2ac6610c7· stats updated 22h ago

Realized PnL

+$1,329,239

closed + open positions

Return on capital

realized PnL ÷ capital deployed

Win rate

79%

395 of 500 resolved

Resolved markets

500

Portfolio value

$43,013

Capital deployed

$25,433,004

lifetime cost of all positions

Tracked whale volume

$35,180

volume seen by WhaleWatcher

Open positions

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 30.0/30Return 4.4/25Consistency 18.1/25Sample size 20.0/20Concentration 0.0Total 72.5 / 100

Current positions

Market	Outcome	Avg price	Value	Unrealized PnL	Trade
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	83.5¢	$10,567	+$367	Trade ↗
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	47.0¢	$4,915	+$1,331	Trade ↗
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	16.9¢	$4,372	-$711	Trade ↗
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?	No	34.6¢	$3,877	+$858	Trade ↗
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	No	86.8¢	$3,231	+$149	Trade ↗
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	No	92.0¢	$2,285	+$37	Trade ↗
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	No	85.0¢	$1,973	+$140	Trade ↗
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	No	88.0¢	$1,790	+$30	Trade ↗
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	80.0¢	$1,506	+$203	Trade ↗
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	72.0¢	$1,453	+$86	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	82.0¢	$1,343	+$55	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	No	90.0¢	$879	+$24	Trade ↗
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	56.5¢	$681	+$269	Trade ↗
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	34.0¢	$610	-$69	Trade ↗
Iran leadership change by September 30?	Yes	4.2¢	$411	-$295	Trade ↗
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	72.0¢	$389	+$43	Trade ↗
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	Yes	1.6¢	$359	-$244	Trade ↗
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	No	26.6¢	$309	+$226	Trade ↗
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	No	80.7¢	$245	+$21	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	Yes	3.4¢	$234	-$94	Trade ↗
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	Yes	18.0¢	$233	-$148	Trade ↗
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	No	78.8¢	$211	+$25	Trade ↗
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	50.0¢	$175	+$75	Trade ↗
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	18.9¢	$162	-$50	Trade ↗
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	Yes	10.0¢	$150	+$12	Trade ↗
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?	Yes	6.0¢	$132	-$120	Trade ↗
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?	No	56.4¢	$94	+$39	Trade ↗
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?	Yes	9.2¢	$85	-$198	Trade ↗
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	No	58.9¢	$73	+$28	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	30.9¢	$67	+$36	Trade ↗
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	No	22.8¢	$35	-$60	Trade ↗
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?	Yes	5.0¢	$30	-$158	Trade ↗
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	Yes	59.9¢	$27	-$92	Trade ↗
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	63.5¢	$24	-$78	Trade ↗
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026?	Yes	5.3¢	$24	-$167	Trade ↗
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	60.0¢	$20	+$7	Trade ↗
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria by September 30, 2026?	Yes	5.3¢	$6	-$205	Trade ↗
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country by September 30, 2026?	Yes	5.3¢	$6	-$205	Trade ↗
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?	Yes	5.3¢	$6	-$205	Trade ↗
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey by September 30, 2026?	Yes	5.3¢	$6	-$195	Trade ↗
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia by September 30, 2026?	Yes	5.3¢	$2	-$209	Trade ↗
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Kazakhstan by September 30, 2026?	Yes	5.3¢	$2	-$209	Trade ↗
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran by September 30, 2026?	Yes	5.3¢	$2	-$209	Trade ↗
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country by September 30, 2026?	Yes	5.3¢	$2	-$209	Trade ↗
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE by September 30, 2026?	Yes	5.3¢	$2	-$209	Trade ↗
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy by September 30, 2026?	Yes	5.3¢	$2	-$209	Trade ↗
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt by September 30, 2026?	Yes	5.3¢	$2	-$209	Trade ↗
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iraq by September 30, 2026?	Yes	5.3¢	$2	-$209	Trade ↗
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia by September 30, 2026?	Yes	5.3¢	$2	-$209	Trade ↗
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa country by September 30, 2026?	Yes	5.3¢	$2	-$209	Trade ↗
Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 14, 2026?	Yes	4.7¢	$0	-$428	Trade ↗
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?	Yes	6.6¢	$0	-$7	Trade ↗
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	No	34.2¢	$0	-$14,594	Trade ↗
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	Yes	54.8¢	$0	-$108	Trade ↗
Will the US next strike Iran on February 11, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	3.3¢	$0	-$2,722	Trade ↗
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	31.7¢	$0	-$2,626	Trade ↗
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	Yes	8.0¢	$0	-$258	Trade ↗
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?	Yes	2.2¢	$0	-$214	Trade ↗
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	3.3¢	$0	-$8	Trade ↗
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29?	Yes	14.3¢	$0	-$848	Trade ↗
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?	No	10.8¢	$0	-$720	Trade ↗
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?	Yes	16.7¢	$0	-$41	Trade ↗
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	Yes	20.5¢	$0	-$2,478	Trade ↗
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	1.1¢	$0	-$66	Trade ↗
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	Yes	2.9¢	$0	-$638	Trade ↗
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Yes	19.0¢	$0	-$2	Trade ↗
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18?	No	45.4¢	$0	-$1,982	Trade ↗
Will the US next strike Iran on March 26, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	1.2¢	$0	-$890	Trade ↗
Will the US next strike Iran on March 24, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	1.5¢	$0	-$937	Trade ↗
Will Navid Shomali be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	0.8¢	$0	-$47	Trade ↗
Israel closes its airspace by June 14?	Yes	1.5¢	$0	-$85	Trade ↗
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	13.0¢	$0	-$13	Trade ↗
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?	Yes	3.8¢	$0	-$147	Trade ↗
Will Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	0.8¢	$0	-$47	Trade ↗
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?	No	65.8¢	$0	-$2,160	Trade ↗
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	Yes	5.5¢	$0	-$293	Trade ↗
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	9.3¢	$0	-$450	Trade ↗
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?	Yes	86.8¢	$0	-$247	Trade ↗
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of March?	Yes	1.3¢	$0	-$35	Trade ↗
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30?	Yes	11.2¢	$0	-$553	Trade ↗
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	Yes	12.6¢	$0	-$33	Trade ↗
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	No	2.4¢	$0	-$2	Trade ↗
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	25.0¢	$0	-$4,726	Trade ↗
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?	Yes	11.9¢	$0	-$234	Trade ↗
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	No	53.9¢	$0	-$3,107	Trade ↗
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	55.0¢	$0	-$2,528	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	Yes	17.1¢	$0	-$107	Trade ↗
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	9.7¢	$0	-$7,439	Trade ↗
Will Mohammad-Reza Modarresi Yazdi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	0.8¢	$0	-$47	Trade ↗
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August?	Yes	4.3¢	$0	-$294	Trade ↗
Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?	Yes	1.6¢	$0	-$233	Trade ↗
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	19.0¢	$0	-$335	Trade ↗
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	14.1¢	$0	-$448	Trade ↗
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	Yes	1.7¢	$0	-$51	Trade ↗
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026?	Yes	5.5¢	$0	-$772	Trade ↗
Will the next official US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?	Yes	2.4¢	$0	-$17	Trade ↗
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	No	11.1¢	$0	-$1,870	Trade ↗
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?	Yes	17.2¢	$0	-$3,338	Trade ↗
Will the US next strike Iran on March 22, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	1.3¢	$0	-$1,017	Trade ↗
Will Khalil Mobasher Kashani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	0.4¢	$0	-$69	Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

Time	Market	Side	Outcome	Price	Size
12d ago	Iran leadership change by December 31?	BUY	No	84.0¢	$10,080
27d ago	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	BUY	No	55.0¢	$14,300
31d ago	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	BUY	No	45.0¢	$10,800