grinder1011

24Qualified whaleProven trader

0xeed7c2e6c4e998fd50098b66144ee8dff01d16b2· stats updated 1d ago

Realized PnL

+$30,966

closed + open positions

Return on capital

realized PnL ÷ capital deployed

Win rate

47%

190 of 405 resolved

Resolved markets

405

Portfolio value

$97,828

Capital deployed

$1,247,295

lifetime cost of all positions

Tracked whale volume

$38,890

volume seen by WhaleWatcher

Open positions

229

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 1.7/30Return 2.1/25Consistency 0.0/25Sample size 20.0/20Concentration 0.0Total 23.8 / 100

Current positions

Market	Outcome	Avg price	Value	Unrealized PnL	Trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	83.4¢	$15,753	+$906	Trade ↗
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	No	73.2¢	$7,555	+$28	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party win the AL-02 House seat?	No	70.2¢	$4,330	-$46	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	71.6¢	$3,850	+$98	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party win the AL-02 House seat?	Yes	69.8¢	$3,649	+$9	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	No	42.0¢	$3,560	+$83	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	No	43.3¢	$3,282	-$1,094	Trade ↗
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	73.2¢	$2,980	+$52	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	42.0¢	$2,916	+$34	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party win the SC-01 House seat?	No	63.4¢	$2,177	-$182	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	69.5¢	$2,115	-$441	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party win the IN-05 House seat?	No	84.0¢	$1,992	-$12	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	31.9¢	$1,870	+$115	Trade ↗
Blue tsunami in 2026?	No	48.0¢	$1,705	-$197	Trade ↗
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	36.5¢	$1,682	-$2,294	Trade ↗
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	83.4¢	$1,622	-$145	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	29.8¢	$1,273	-$81	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat?	No	66.9¢	$1,270	-$101	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	No	24.6¢	$1,163	+$112	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-15 House seat?	Yes	83.0¢	$1,117	+$46	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party win the IN-05 House seat?	Yes	84.3¢	$1,098	-$24	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	23.5¢	$1,096	+$157	Trade ↗
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?	No	28.9¢	$1,032	+$592	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	29.9¢	$977	+$217	Trade ↗
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Yes	26.1¢	$805	-$130	Trade ↗
Another Vatican x Anthropic meeting by December 31?	No	62.7¢	$709	+$45	Trade ↗
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	6.9¢	$703	+$42	Trade ↗
France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?	Yes	12.9¢	$681	+$242	Trade ↗
Will Democrats sweep the Alaska Senate and Governor elections?	No	26.8¢	$680	+$53	Trade ↗
Will Fabian Ruiz finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	78.2¢	$580	+$86	Trade ↗
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in October?	No	78.3¢	$563	+$47	Trade ↗
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Yes	11.4¢	$563	-$293	Trade ↗
Will Samuel Marcos Daza Taype win the next Lima mayoral elections?	No	95.8¢	$561	+$24	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party win the MT-01 House seat?	No	62.3¢	$560	-$86	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Railroad Commissioner election?	Yes	43.3¢	$560	+$103	Trade ↗
Will Sal Stewart win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?	No	11.1¢	$550	+$313	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	32.0¢	$549	-$27	Trade ↗
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	No	85.2¢	$529	+$52	Trade ↗
France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?	Yes	7.0¢	$517	+$228	Trade ↗
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	No	46.0¢	$481	-$200	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026?	Yes	5.5¢	$475	-$200	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party win the SC-01 House seat?	Yes	62.0¢	$472	-$24	Trade ↗
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	32.8¢	$472	-$183	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party win the NE-01 House seat?	No	77.0¢	$459	+$9	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	Yes	44.3¢	$454	-$165	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party win the VA-05 House seat?	Yes	62.1¢	$449	-$5	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party win the CO-04 House seat?	Yes	72.0¢	$436	-$6	Trade ↗
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in October?	No	66.0¢	$426	-$24	Trade ↗
Will at least 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?	No	85.2¢	$381	+$28	Trade ↗
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in October?	Yes	15.7¢	$352	-$230	Trade ↗
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	76.2¢	$349	-$8	Trade ↗
Kansas passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting?	Yes	85.9¢	$343	-$23	Trade ↗
Will Fabian Ruiz finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	62.5¢	$341	-$381	Trade ↗
Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	No	62.8¢	$334	+$82	Trade ↗
Will Achraf Hakimi finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	88.5¢	$310	+$25	Trade ↗
Will “I Can't Love You Anymore” by Ella Langley and Morgan Wallen win Musical Event of the Year at the 2026 CMA Awards?	No	55.5¢	$302	+$48	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026?	No	6.3¢	$300	-$193	Trade ↗
West Virginia passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting?	Yes	91.6¢	$299	+$5	Trade ↗
Will Democrats sweep the Ohio Senate and Governor elections?	Yes	66.4¢	$295	+$5	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	22.2¢	$287	-$407	Trade ↗
Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?	No	69.3¢	$283	+$9	Trade ↗
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in October?	Yes	26.5¢	$279	+$10	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	13.0¢	$277	-$36	Trade ↗
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	33.7¢	$277	+$23	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	10.3¢	$264	+$46	Trade ↗
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.73% in October?	No	69.4¢	$262	+$75	Trade ↗
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	4.2¢	$254	-$442	Trade ↗
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	15.5¢	$254	+$194	Trade ↗
Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	97.5¢	$245	-$0	Trade ↗
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?	Yes	58.0¢	$235	-$2	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party win the OH-15 House seat?	Yes	57.0¢	$234	+$22	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party win the AR-02 House seat?	No	79.2¢	$232	+$5	Trade ↗
Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.0%?	No	93.8¢	$228	+$2	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?	Yes	40.2¢	$217	-$7	Trade ↗
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.08% in October?	No	22.4¢	$213	+$158	Trade ↗
Will Carson Benge win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?	Yes	15.5¢	$212	+$65	Trade ↗
Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?	No	59.3¢	$210	+$14	Trade ↗
Will Democrats sweep the Georgia Senate and Governor elections?	No	45.2¢	$210	-$21	Trade ↗
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	73.1¢	$190	+$27	Trade ↗
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.35% in October?	No	69.9¢	$183	+$54	Trade ↗
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	Yes	13.4¢	$179	+$72	Trade ↗
GTA VI released by November 30?	No	4.5¢	$169	-$106	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026?	No	5.2¢	$165	+$22	Trade ↗
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.85% in October?	No	77.4¢	$162	+$33	Trade ↗
Arkansas passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting?	Yes	88.4¢	$153	+$10	Trade ↗
Will Republicans sweep the Alaska Senate and Governor elections?	Yes	12.4¢	$146	+$2	Trade ↗
Will Democrats win the Alaska Governor election and Republicans win the Alaska Senate election?	Yes	7.1¢	$141	+$72	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-35 House seat?	Yes	63.8¢	$139	+$5	Trade ↗
Will three people dissent the October Fed decision?	No	79.3¢	$135	+$0	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	27.0¢	$132	+$27	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?	No	12.5¢	$130	-$103	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?	Yes	10.0¢	$125	+$25	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party win the KY-06 House seat?	No	58.7¢	$118	-$12	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?	No	9.1¢	$112	-$200	Trade ↗
Will Republicans sweep the Kansas Senate and Governor elections?	Yes	52.3¢	$106	+$7	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Oregon governor race in 2026?	Yes	18.3¢	$102	-$15	Trade ↗
Will Ferran Torres finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	91.8¢	$99	+$6	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Railroad Commissioner election?	Yes	55.0¢	$96	-$18	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party win the TX-35 House seat?	No	66.0¢	$95	$0	Trade ↗
Will Roberto Cidade win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?	No	98.6¢	$92	+$1	Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

Time	Market	Side	Outcome	Price	Size
44d ago	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	SELL	No	98.3¢	$11,333
54d ago	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	SELL	No	97.2¢	$15,882
73d ago	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	SELL	No	97.3¢	$11,676