20260601

23Qualified whaleProven trader

0xb36cfbf83a716c55507a81ace255480b9ed31077· stats updated 2d ago

Realized PnL

+$31,231

closed + open positions

Return on capital

realized PnL ÷ capital deployed

Win rate

48%

131 of 271 resolved

Resolved markets

271

Portfolio value

$16,553

Capital deployed

$1,284,656

lifetime cost of all positions

Tracked whale volume

$52,248

volume seen by WhaleWatcher

Open positions

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 1.8/30Return 2.0/25Consistency 0.0/25Sample size 20.0/20Concentration -0.5Total 23.4 / 100

Current positions

Market	Outcome	Avg price	Value	Unrealized PnL	Trade
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	65.0¢	$4,527	+$256	Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	68.0¢	$3,312	+$186	Trade ↗
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	No	79.9¢	$3,159	+$488	Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	56.7¢	$1,973	+$211	Trade ↗
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	No	30.2¢	$1,155	-$22,879	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	67.0¢	$680	+$5	Trade ↗
Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	Yes	45.3¢	$431	-$545	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	51.7¢	$362	-$551	Trade ↗
Cambria FDV above $40M one day after launch?	No	64.7¢	$213	-$23	Trade ↗
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	No	75.0¢	$155	+$5	Trade ↗
No one announced as next James Bond?	Yes	33.1¢	$123	-$108	Trade ↗
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	No	65.0¢	$123	-$7	Trade ↗
Cambria FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	72.0¢	$109	+$14	Trade ↗
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Qatar by December 31, 2026?	Yes	35.1¢	$90	-$156	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	10.0¢	$36	+$6	Trade ↗
Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?	No	57.0¢	$36	-$22	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	11.0¢	$24	-$9	Trade ↗
Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?	Yes	17.4¢	$17	+$0	Trade ↗
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	No	38.5¢	$15	-$1,296	Trade ↗
No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?	Hike 25 bps	4.7¢	$9	-$10	Trade ↗
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	55.9¢	$2	-$1	Trade ↗
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	32.0¢	$1	-$0	Trade ↗
Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	5.7¢	$0	-$0	Trade ↗
Will Tricia McLaughlin be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	14.0¢	$0	-$0	Trade ↗
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?	Yes	63.0¢	$0	-$570	Trade ↗
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 16?	Yes	42.0¢	$0	-$168	Trade ↗
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	72.1¢	$0	-$1,218	Trade ↗
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?	No	79.0¢	$0	-$213	Trade ↗
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?	No	66.6¢	$0	-$9,503	Trade ↗
Will the Greenland agreement text be released by September 23, 2026? (copy) (copy)	No	48.7¢	$0	-$146	Trade ↗
Will there be between 10 and 15 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on September 30?	Yes	4.5¢	$0	-$10	Trade ↗
Will 200-224 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?	Yes	15.1¢	$0	-$53	Trade ↗
Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	19.1¢	$0	-$38	Trade ↗
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	62.0¢	$0	-$62	Trade ↗
Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 14, 2026?	No	78.6¢	$0	-$348	Trade ↗
Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026?	No	69.0¢	$0	-$69	Trade ↗
Will 175-199 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?	Yes	14.1¢	$0	-$50	Trade ↗
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?	Yes	7.9¢	$0	-$100	Trade ↗
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan by end of summit?	Yes	2.3¢	$0	-$52	Trade ↗
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	31.1¢	$0	-$2,180	Trade ↗
Paris curfew by October 31?	No	91.0¢	$0	-$4	Trade ↗
Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	27.5¢	$0	-$55	Trade ↗
Will 225 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?	Yes	6.1¢	$0	-$22	Trade ↗
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?	No	42.5¢	$0	-$2,637	Trade ↗
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by September 25, 2026?	Yes	74.8¢	$0	-$895	Trade ↗
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 270M by September 25, 2026?	Yes	33.7¢	$0	-$413	Trade ↗
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	66.0¢	$0	-$594	Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

Time	Market	Side	Outcome	Price	Size
10d ago	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	SELL	No	53.2¢	$28,788
10d ago	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	SELL	Yes	83.5¢	$12,197
16d ago	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	SELL	Yes	94.0¢	$11,263