plumbis

0x77fbd6bdba89da0ce4ae6e5bee380d6a51de266c· stats updated 1d ago

Realized PnL

-$234,012

closed + open positions

Return on capital

-17%

realized PnL ÷ capital deployed

Win rate

47%

20 of 43 resolved

Resolved markets

Portfolio value

$381,130

Capital deployed

$1,414,279

lifetime cost of all positions

Tracked whale volume

$247,184

volume seen by WhaleWatcher

Open positions

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 0.0/30Return 0.0/25Consistency 0.0/25Sample size 9.7/20Concentration -2.1Total 7.7 / 100

Current positions

Market	Outcome	Avg price	Value	Unrealized PnL	Trade
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	96.6¢	$134,593	+$2,903	Trade ↗
Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	96.4¢	$112,724	+$3,153	Trade ↗
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	87.8¢	$37,697	+$2,055	Trade ↗
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	95.6¢	$28,612	+$348	Trade ↗
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?	No	94.9¢	$13,853	+$398	Trade ↗
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	78.2¢	$7,853	+$33	Trade ↗
Will Renan Santos qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	No	95.0¢	$7,594	+$229	Trade ↗
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	96.1¢	$7,421	+$150	Trade ↗
Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	No	92.9¢	$3,279	+$157	Trade ↗
Iran leadership change by September 30?	No	87.7¢	$2,926	+$297	Trade ↗
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	76.5¢	$2,694	+$274	Trade ↗
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	35.4¢	$2,287	-$15	Trade ↗
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	56.0¢	$1,890	-$126	Trade ↗
Will Angélika Homère win the next Beauharnois Quebec National Assembly election?	No	94.5¢	$1,652	+$59	Trade ↗
Will the PLQ win 36-39 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?	No	86.0¢	$1,598	+$151	Trade ↗
Fetterman out by September 30, 2026?	No	93.6¢	$1,327	+$44	Trade ↗
Will Myriam Cournoyer win the next Drummond–Bois-Francs Quebec National Assembly election?	No	91.7¢	$1,085	+$75	Trade ↗
Will Ülle Madise be the next President of Estonia?	Yes	70.7¢	$1,021	+$298	Trade ↗
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	76.0¢	$790	+$30	Trade ↗
Will Charles Paquin win the next Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Quebec National Assembly election?	No	85.2¢	$789	+$114	Trade ↗
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	Yes	70.0¢	$735	+$35	Trade ↗
Will Francine van Winden win the next La Prairie Quebec National Assembly election?	No	92.3¢	$646	+$48	Trade ↗
Will Charles Hudon win the next Vanier-Les Rivières Quebec National Assembly election?	No	92.3¢	$546	+$38	Trade ↗
Will Sophie Martinbeault win the next Nicolet-Bécancour Quebec National Assembly election?	No	89.5¢	$501	+$35	Trade ↗
Will Béatrice Hodonou win the next Hochelaga-Maisonneuve Quebec National Assembly election?	No	81.9¢	$480	+$83	Trade ↗
Will David Lavoie win the next Rosemont Quebec National Assembly election?	No	78.3¢	$473	+$87	Trade ↗
Will the CAQ win 20-24 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?	No	70.9¢	$449	+$49	Trade ↗
Will Nancy St-Pierre win the next Côte-du-Sud Quebec National Assembly election?	No	91.6¢	$440	+$36	Trade ↗
Will Richard Bélanger win the next Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly election?	No	80.4¢	$412	+$78	Trade ↗
Will Marc-André Cloutier win the next Maskinongé Quebec National Assembly election?	No	77.5¢	$411	+$86	Trade ↗
Will Hugo Fontaine win the next Richmond Quebec National Assembly election?	No	84.1¢	$409	+$63	Trade ↗
Will PCQ finish in third place in the Quebec general election?	No	97.0¢	$278	-$0	Trade ↗
Will Ginette Langlois win the next Montarville Quebec National Assembly election?	No	87.8¢	$276	+$32	Trade ↗
Will Simon Piotte win the next Maskinongé Quebec National Assembly election?	No	87.8¢	$275	+$30	Trade ↗
Will Kelly Lazo de la Vega win the next Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly election?	No	89.4¢	$257	+$22	Trade ↗
Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?	Yes	23.8¢	$245	+$7	Trade ↗
Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?	Yes	50.0¢	$202	+$26	Trade ↗
Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary?	No	85.0¢	$183	+$7	Trade ↗
Will Seynabou Top win the next Charlesbourg Quebec National Assembly election?	No	90.0¢	$142	+$14	Trade ↗
Will Mathieu Lavoie win the next Montarville Quebec National Assembly election?	No	92.0¢	$136	+$10	Trade ↗
Will the PLQ win fewer than 28 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?	Yes	23.6¢	$133	+$25	Trade ↗
Will Dominic Bouffard win the next Richmond Quebec National Assembly election?	No	87.0¢	$129	+$12	Trade ↗
Will Farnell Morisset win the next Taschereau Quebec National Assembly election?	No	83.1¢	$126	+$18	Trade ↗
Will Macy's say "Tax" during earnings call?	Yes	59.0¢	$125	+$30	Trade ↗
Will the PLQ win 40-43 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?	No	97.7¢	$122	+$0	Trade ↗
Will Janny Gaspard win the next Hochelaga-Maisonneuve Quebec National Assembly election?	No	88.0¢	$117	+$12	Trade ↗
Will Brittany Blais win the next Lévis Quebec National Assembly election?	No	76.0¢	$112	+$26	Trade ↗
Will Simon Beauchamp-Léveillé win the next Lévis Quebec National Assembly election?	No	92.4¢	$101	+$4	Trade ↗
Will Laurent Bélisle win the next Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Quebec National Assembly election?	No	90.1¢	$93	+$9	Trade ↗
Will Nancy Mignault win the next Maskinongé Quebec National Assembly election?	No	89.3¢	$93	+$8	Trade ↗
Will Elena Penta win the next Hochelaga-Maisonneuve Quebec National Assembly election?	No	87.0¢	$92	+$11	Trade ↗
Berlin State Election: More Votes to CDU or AfD?	CDU	56.0¢	$85	+$4	Trade ↗
Will Julie Tourangeau win the next Groulx Quebec National Assembly election?	No	93.5¢	$79	+$4	Trade ↗
Will Isabelle Blais win the next Maskinongé Quebec National Assembly election?	Yes	24.6¢	$73	+$37	Trade ↗
Will Simon Allaire win the next Maskinongé Quebec National Assembly election?	Yes	26.3¢	$72	+$17	Trade ↗
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	98.4¢	$52	+$0	Trade ↗
Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?	Yes	22.0¢	$49	+$14	Trade ↗
Will Emil Parfyonov win the next Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly election?	No	93.6¢	$46	+$2	Trade ↗
First Round Outright Winner in the LA-01 House Election?	Yes	87.3¢	$45	+$4	Trade ↗
Will Derek Lefebvre win the next Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly election?	No	94.0¢	$41	+$2	Trade ↗
Will Charles Royer Tremblay win the next Beauharnois Quebec National Assembly election?	No	93.0¢	$39	+$2	Trade ↗
Will Georges Goma win the next Charlesbourg Quebec National Assembly election?	No	90.0¢	$38	+$2	Trade ↗
Will the PLQ win 44 or more seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?	No	98.5¢	$28	-$1	Trade ↗
Quebec General Election: PVQ Wins a Seat?	No	92.0¢	$19	+$1	Trade ↗
Will the PQ win 70-74 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?	No	92.0¢	$13	+$0	Trade ↗
Will Pierre-Luc Brillant win the next Rosemont Quebec National Assembly election?	Yes	34.0¢	$11	+$4	Trade ↗
Will Marie-Noëlle Aubertin win the next Groulx Quebec National Assembly election?	No	97.0¢	$7	+$0	Trade ↗
Will Maura Sullivan be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?	No	16.0¢	$5	+$0	Trade ↗
Will Nancy Joannette win the next Jean-Lesage Quebec National Assembly election?	No	98.0¢	$5	+$0	Trade ↗
Will Oliver Larkin be the FL-25 Democratic nominee?	Yes	11.0¢	$0	-$330	Trade ↗
Will Caroline Dubé win the 2026 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election?	Yes	50.2¢	$0	-$1,290	Trade ↗
Will Jared Moskowitz be the FL-25 Democratic nominee?	No	11.0¢	$0	-$220	Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

Time	Market	Side	Outcome	Price	Size
1d ago	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BUY	No	98.9¢	$10,483
1d ago	Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	SELL	No	99.1¢	$11,497
11d ago	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	SELL	Yes	52.0¢	$13,883
12d ago	Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BUY	No	96.6¢	$11,875
12d ago	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	SELL	No	99.3¢	$66,491
12d ago	Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BUY	No	96.4¢	$14,520
13d ago	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	BUY	Yes	87.8¢	$26,578
15d ago	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BUY	No	97.1¢	$11,807
16d ago	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BUY	No	96.6¢	$17,019
26d ago	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	BUY	No	98.9¢	$63,033