Arbguy

88Qualified whaleProven trader

0x53e55bc7cb3d67ad177c023ce891ad076a9d6177· stats updated 2d ago

Realized PnL

+$4,070,445

closed + open positions

Return on capital

16%

realized PnL ÷ capital deployed

Win rate

95%

477 of 500 resolved

Resolved markets

500

Portfolio value

$227,419

Capital deployed

$25,471,516

lifetime cost of all positions

Tracked whale volume

$21,515

volume seen by WhaleWatcher

Open positions

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 30.0/30Return 13.3/25Consistency 25.0/25Sample size 20.0/20Concentration 0.0Total 88.3 / 100

Current positions

Market	Outcome	Avg price	Value	Unrealized PnL	Trade
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	82.6¢	$30,623	+$1,371	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	48.2¢	$28,455	+$752	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	49.4¢	$23,845	+$541	Trade ↗
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	1.3¢	$23,217	+$11,278	Trade ↗
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	22.6¢	$22,539	-$12,537	Trade ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	47.3¢	$19,246	+$868	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	83.0¢	$17,119	+$889	Trade ↗
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	11.0¢	$10,091	-$6,992	Trade ↗
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	41.0¢	$9,456	-$1,465	Trade ↗
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	47.9¢	$6,700	-$12,763	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	49.8¢	$6,206	-$162	Trade ↗
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	0.7¢	$5,658	-$5,080	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	34.0¢	$5,426	-$623	Trade ↗
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	5.1¢	$5,335	-$128	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	36.3¢	$4,391	-$226	Trade ↗
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	21.0¢	$3,150	-$2,142	Trade ↗
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	87.0¢	$2,748	-$40,722	Trade ↗
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	Yes	73.0¢	$1,737	+$35	Trade ↗
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Yes	8.9¢	$419	-$660	Trade ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	1.4¢	$409	-$650	Trade ↗
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	83.1¢	$395	+$9	Trade ↗
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?	Yes	23.4¢	$129	-$2,900	Trade ↗
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	25.0¢	$90	-$6	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	41.0¢	$19	-$4	Trade ↗
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	62.6¢	$8	+$3	Trade ↗
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?	Yes	26.2¢	$4	-$18	Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

Time	Market	Side	Outcome	Price	Size
16d ago	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	BUY	Yes	49.0¢	$21,515