Arbguy

90Qualified whaleProven trader

0x53e55bc7cb3d67ad177c023ce891ad076a9d6177· stats updated 9h ago

Realized PnL

+$4,090,984

closed + open positions

Return on capital

18%

realized PnL ÷ capital deployed

Win rate

97%

486 of 500 resolved

Resolved markets

500

Portfolio value

$189,450

Capital deployed

$23,173,920

lifetime cost of all positions

Tracked whale volume

$53,731

volume seen by WhaleWatcher

Open positions

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 30.0/30Return 14.7/25Consistency 25.0/25Sample size 20.0/20Concentration 0.0Total 89.7 / 100

Current positions

Market	Outcome	Avg price	Value	Unrealized PnL	Trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	22.6¢	$30,312	-$4,765	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	44.5¢	$26,899	-$5,936	Trade ↗
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	0.7¢	$21,825	+$11,087	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	48.2¢	$19,258	-$8,445	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	83.0¢	$17,902	+$1,671	Trade ↗
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	1.3¢	$13,841	+$1,902	Trade ↗
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	87.0¢	$10,742	-$32,728	Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	24.0¢	$9,257	-$3,438	Trade ↗
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	11.0¢	$8,538	-$8,545	Trade ↗
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	41.0¢	$6,793	-$4,129	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	34.0¢	$6,493	+$445	Trade ↗
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	5.1¢	$5,602	+$139	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	49.8¢	$4,287	-$2,081	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	36.3¢	$3,628	-$989	Trade ↗
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	31.6¢	$2,832	-$25,159	Trade ↗
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	83.1¢	$397	+$11	Trade ↗
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	3.1¢	$359	-$215	Trade ↗
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Yes	8.9¢	$298	-$782	Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	26.3¢	$92	-$5,273	Trade ↗
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	25.0¢	$53	-$42	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	41.0¢	$16	-$7	Trade ↗
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	0.8¢	$14	-$7	Trade ↗
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	62.6¢	$8	+$3	Trade ↗
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?	Yes	26.2¢	$4	-$19	Trade ↗
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?	Yes	23.4¢	$0	-$3,030	Trade ↗
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	21.0¢	$0	-$5,292	Trade ↗
Giants vs. Rams	Giants	27.0¢	$0	-$8,100	Trade ↗
Spread: Rams (-7.5)	Giants	56.0¢	$0	-$10,706	Trade ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	1.4¢	$0	-$1,059	Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

Time	Market	Side	Outcome	Price	Size
1d ago	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	SELL	No	91.0¢	$32,216
62d ago	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	BUY	Yes	49.0¢	$21,515