Warren-Buffett

78Qualified whaleProven trader

0x4478d7bd8a295691ac84f60a5ec2b47e122102a4· stats updated 2d ago

Realized PnL

+$529,176

closed + open positions

Return on capital

realized PnL ÷ capital deployed

Win rate

100%

500 of 500 resolved

Resolved markets

500

Portfolio value

$85,233

Capital deployed

$5,606,901

lifetime cost of all positions

Tracked whale volume

$55,615

volume seen by WhaleWatcher

Open positions

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 24.8/30Return 7.9/25Consistency 25.0/25Sample size 20.0/20Concentration 0.0Total 77.7 / 100

Current positions

Market	Outcome	Avg price	Value	Unrealized PnL	Trade
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	69.8¢	$11,829	+$1,166	Trade ↗
Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?	Yes	85.8¢	$8,950	+$371	Trade ↗
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?	No	86.4¢	$8,078	+$944	Trade ↗
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	No	72.0¢	$3,675	+$75	Trade ↗
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	Yes	55.9¢	$3,300	+$1,203	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	59.0¢	$3,300	+$350	Trade ↗
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	84.1¢	$3,060	-$304	Trade ↗
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	97.5¢	$2,952	+$27	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	91.0¢	$2,775	+$45	Trade ↗
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	42.4¢	$2,700	+$1,006	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	No	57.9¢	$2,575	+$574	Trade ↗
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	81.4¢	$2,363	+$328	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	43.5¢	$2,269	-$25	Trade ↗
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	25.6¢	$2,059	-$516	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	15.5¢	$1,950	+$400	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?	No	90.0¢	$1,894	+$94	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	32.0¢	$1,700	-$5,554	Trade ↗
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	Yes	22.1¢	$1,662	-$967	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	No	76.8¢	$1,630	+$95	Trade ↗
Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2026?	Yes	13.1¢	$1,600	-$1,020	Trade ↗
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Yes	10.6¢	$1,189	+$255	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	No	31.4¢	$1,185	+$243	Trade ↗
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	16.7¢	$1,085	-$85	Trade ↗
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	14.7¢	$1,037	+$52	Trade ↗
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	86.9¢	$1,006	+$18	Trade ↗
US strike on Colombia by December 31?	No	77.0¢	$740	-$30	Trade ↗
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by December 31, 2026?	Yes	14.0¢	$665	$0	Trade ↗
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	57.8¢	$650	-$84	Trade ↗
Will Trump visit Greenland by October 31?	No	94.0¢	$646	+$35	Trade ↗
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Yes	10.9¢	$637	+$60	Trade ↗
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	48.6¢	$584	-$69	Trade ↗
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?	Yes	58.4¢	$573	-$1,586	Trade ↗
Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by December 31, 2026?	Yes	14.0¢	$525	-$175	Trade ↗
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Yes	71.2¢	$496	+$73	Trade ↗
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?	Yes	46.3¢	$450	-$940	Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	81.0¢	$387	-$18	Trade ↗
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	Yes	12.3¢	$380	-$110	Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	31.0¢	$313	-$34	Trade ↗
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	97.8¢	$282	-$12	Trade ↗
No one announced as next James Bond?	No	66.0¢	$248	+$50	Trade ↗
Will there be 2 US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026?	Yes	51.4¢	$242	+$11	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	Yes	4.3¢	$195	+$37	Trade ↗
Nothing Ever Happens: October	Nothing	90.0¢	$165	+$12	Trade ↗
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	Yes	4.8¢	$164	-$2,083	Trade ↗
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	23.6¢	$151	-$23	Trade ↗
Will the USS George H.W. Bush be in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026?	Yes	44.0¢	$132	+$69	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	12.0¢	$115	-$5	Trade ↗
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?	Yes	21.0¢	$95	-$115	Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	14.0¢	$95	-$45	Trade ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	25.0¢	$90	-$210	Trade ↗
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	15.0¢	$83	-$339	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?	Yes	3.0¢	$69	+$3	Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	11.1¢	$55	-$381	Trade ↗
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	23.0¢	$54	-$406	Trade ↗
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2026?	No	90.0¢	$43	-$2	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	23.0¢	$28	+$13	Trade ↗
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	5.3¢	$25	-$240	Trade ↗
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	Yes	72.0¢	$13	-$262	Trade ↗
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?	Yes	30.7¢	$10	-$13	Trade ↗
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	Yes	10.3¢	$8	-$42	Trade ↗
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?	Yes	60.9¢	$0	-$263	Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

Time	Market	Side	Outcome	Price	Size
42d ago	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	BUY	No	99.7¢	$19,940
75d ago	Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	BUY	No	99.3¢	$11,232
77d ago	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	BUY	No	99.5¢	$24,443