Warren-Buffett

77Qualified whaleProven trader

0x4478d7bd8a295691ac84f60a5ec2b47e122102a4· stats updated 15h ago

Realized PnL

+$519,599

closed + open positions

Return on capital

realized PnL ÷ capital deployed

Win rate

100%

500 of 500 resolved

Resolved markets

500

Portfolio value

$92,519

Capital deployed

$6,320,511

lifetime cost of all positions

Tracked whale volume

$35,675

volume seen by WhaleWatcher

Open positions

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 24.7/30Return 6.8/25Consistency 25.0/25Sample size 20.0/20Concentration 0.0Total 76.5 / 100

Current positions

Market	Outcome	Avg price	Value	Unrealized PnL	Trade
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	69.9¢	$12,235	+$593	Trade ↗
Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?	Yes	85.8¢	$8,550	-$29	Trade ↗
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	66.2¢	$7,450	+$830	Trade ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	33.5¢	$5,250	+$1,900	Trade ↗
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	Yes	55.9¢	$5,215	+$1,301	Trade ↗
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	60.3¢	$4,393	-$341	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	52.5¢	$4,241	-$2,412	Trade ↗
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	8.0¢	$4,203	-$16,227	Trade ↗
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	95.8¢	$2,930	+$56	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	79.6¢	$2,898	-$1,081	Trade ↗
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	42.4¢	$2,793	+$450	Trade ↗
Iran coup attempt by December 31?	Yes	13.1¢	$2,700	+$80	Trade ↗
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	83.0¢	$2,565	+$75	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?	No	93.9¢	$2,355	+$8	Trade ↗
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	25.6¢	$2,260	-$315	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	Yes	5.7¢	$2,147	-$2,631	Trade ↗
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	Yes	23.5¢	$1,747	-$256	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?	No	90.0¢	$1,737	-$63	Trade ↗
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	16.5¢	$1,593	-$1,179	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	No	76.8¢	$1,390	-$145	Trade ↗
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?	Yes	58.4¢	$1,036	-$1,124	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	52.0¢	$1,010	-$30	Trade ↗
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	48.6¢	$880	+$227	Trade ↗
US strike on Colombia by December 31?	No	77.0¢	$860	+$90	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	15.0¢	$725	-$25	Trade ↗
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?	Yes	46.3¢	$720	-$670	Trade ↗
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?	Yes	2.5¢	$656	-$4,108	Trade ↗
Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by December 31, 2026?	Yes	14.0¢	$625	-$75	Trade ↗
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	75.2¢	$623	-$77	Trade ↗
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	19.5¢	$620	-$160	Trade ↗
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by December 31, 2026?	Yes	14.0¢	$600	-$100	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	Yes	22.6¢	$552	-$1,110	Trade ↗
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Yes	71.2¢	$496	+$73	Trade ↗
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	44.0¢	$475	+$35	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	No	76.0¢	$456	-$281	Trade ↗
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?	Yes	22.4¢	$420	-$1,145	Trade ↗
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	Yes	31.4¢	$402	-$610	Trade ↗
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	23.0¢	$360	-$100	Trade ↗
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	No	42.2¢	$330	-$1,358	Trade ↗
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	Yes	13.5¢	$270	-$0	Trade ↗
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	15.0¢	$239	-$183	Trade ↗
Will at least 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?	No	60.3¢	$232	+$92	Trade ↗
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?	Yes	3.0¢	$216	-$75	Trade ↗
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?	No	57.0¢	$213	-$6	Trade ↗
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?	Yes	24.6¢	$190	-$1,509	Trade ↗
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?	Yes	20.0¢	$170	-$30	Trade ↗
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	23.6¢	$151	-$23	Trade ↗
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?	Yes	21.0¢	$135	-$75	Trade ↗
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	No	72.0¢	$110	+$28	Trade ↗
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	Yes	0.9¢	$33	-$13	Trade ↗
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	Yes	10.3¢	$27	-$23	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	23.0¢	$19	+$4	Trade ↗
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?	Yes	30.7¢	$10	-$13	Trade ↗
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026?	Yes	9.7¢	$7	-$103	Trade ↗
Nothing Ever Happens: August	Something	11.0¢	$2	-$63	Trade ↗
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?	Yes	5.0¢	$0	-$150	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	6.0¢	$0	-$3,398	Trade ↗
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	Yes	19.5¢	$0	-$195	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	Yes	5.6¢	$0	-$4,827	Trade ↗
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	Yes	3.4¢	$0	-$673	Trade ↗
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?	Yes	14.9¢	$0	-$1,010	Trade ↗
Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?	Yes	4.0¢	$0	-$526	Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

Time	Market	Side	Outcome	Price	Size
30d ago	Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	BUY	No	99.3¢	$11,232
32d ago	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	BUY	No	99.5¢	$24,443