Dragontree

90Qualified whaleProven trader

0x2c3928af89565c352afe8e2a1b25deed77a056dc· stats updated 2d ago

Realized PnL

+$926,867

closed + open positions

Return on capital

18%

realized PnL ÷ capital deployed

Win rate

100%

500 of 500 resolved

Resolved markets

500

Portfolio value

$37,601

Capital deployed

$5,028,396

lifetime cost of all positions

Tracked whale volume

$44,680

volume seen by WhaleWatcher

Open positions

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 29.4/30Return 15.4/25Consistency 25.0/25Sample size 20.0/20Concentration 0.0Total 89.7 / 100

Current positions

Market	Outcome	Avg price	Value	Unrealized PnL	Trade
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	No	70.8¢	$4,972	+$244	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	79.8¢	$4,834	+$423	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026?	No	99.4¢	$4,591	+$25	Trade ↗
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510?	No	80.4¢	$3,010	+$76	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?	No	90.3¢	$2,738	+$28	Trade ↗
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	No	92.0¢	$2,532	+$127	Trade ↗
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" or "Bitcoin" during RNC Convention?	No	92.0¢	$2,108	+$33	Trade ↗
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1500?	No	71.3¢	$2,055	+$48	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	No	95.7¢	$1,578	+$58	Trade ↗
Will Catherine O'Hara be the #1 searched passing on Google in the US this year?	No	90.7¢	$997	+$81	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	No	13.3¢	$779	+$500	Trade ↗
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1520?	No	91.9¢	$711	-$10	Trade ↗
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	81.0¢	$612	-$122	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?	No	93.3¢	$562	+$5	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	No	90.0¢	$555	+$6	Trade ↗
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	82.5¢	$508	+$36	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	16.8¢	$470	+$113	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	17.6¢	$469	+$146	Trade ↗
Will Trump say "Radical Left" during RNC Convention?	Yes	89.8¢	$460	+$11	Trade ↗
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?	No	32.3¢	$445	+$9	Trade ↗
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	7.6¢	$423	-$71	Trade ↗
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during RNC Convention?	Yes	85.6¢	$322	+$18	Trade ↗
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	No	20.4¢	$292	-$406	Trade ↗
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490?	No	46.4¢	$258	-$34	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH?	No	50.0¢	$253	+$3	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)?	No	15.5¢	$237	+$137	Trade ↗
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?	No	77.0¢	$197	-$67	Trade ↗
Will Trump say "Hell" 10+ times during RNC Convention?	Yes	34.6¢	$170	+$11	Trade ↗
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on September 4?	Yes	81.7¢	$81	-$50	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)?	Yes	4.6¢	$77	+$58	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in September 2026 (ET)?	No	92.0¢	$60	+$5	Trade ↗
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31?	Yes	9.7¢	$55	-$27	Trade ↗
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1520?	Yes	9.9¢	$52	-$3	Trade ↗
Will Trump say "Vegan" during RNC Convention?	Yes	12.7¢	$49	+$28	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	Yes	7.5¢	$28	-$33	Trade ↗
US strike on Mexico by December 31?	No	83.0¢	$18	+$2	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	Yes	7.0¢	$14	-$379	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in September 2026 (ET)?	Yes	12.1¢	$11	-$285	Trade ↗
Will Ali Khamenei be the #1 searched passing on Google in the US this year?	No	-56.9¢	$7	+$11	Trade ↗
Will Trump say "Radical Left" during RNC Convention?	No	9.5¢	$3	-$1	Trade ↗
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?	No	63.0¢	$2	-$1	Trade ↗
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?	No	57.0¢	$2	-$2	Trade ↗
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" or "Bitcoin" during RNC Convention?	Yes	3.0¢	$1	+$1	Trade ↗
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	0.4¢	$1	-$1	Trade ↗
Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition?	Yes	39.0¢	$0	-$6	Trade ↗
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?	No	17.2¢	$0	-$217	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	17.1¢	$0	-$1,611	Trade ↗
Will the next Google Gemini Flash model be released on September 4, 2026?	Yes	0.7¢	$0	-$2	Trade ↗
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 5, 2026?	No	15.3¢	$0	-$28	Trade ↗
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?	No	1.1¢	$0	-$0	Trade ↗
Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 4, 2026?	No	30.7¢	$0	-$83	Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

Time	Market	Side	Outcome	Price	Size
13d ago	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL	No	87.0¢	$17,613
30d ago	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	SELL	Yes	93.0¢	$13,723
30d ago	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	SELL	Yes	60.0¢	$13,344