Dragontree

86Qualified whaleProven trader

0x2c3928af89565c352afe8e2a1b25deed77a056dc· stats updated 2d ago

Realized PnL

+$799,739

closed + open positions

Return on capital

15%

realized PnL ÷ capital deployed

Win rate

100%

500 of 500 resolved

Resolved markets

500

Portfolio value

$72,587

Capital deployed

$5,294,913

lifetime cost of all positions

Tracked whale volume

$101,950

volume seen by WhaleWatcher

Open positions

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 28.2/30Return 12.6/25Consistency 25.0/25Sample size 20.0/20Concentration 0.0Total 85.8 / 100

Current positions

Market	Outcome	Avg price	Value	Unrealized PnL	Trade
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	91.6¢	$15,632	+$1,132	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	No	76.1¢	$14,153	+$943	Trade ↗
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	No	94.8¢	$10,677	+$495	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	No	76.4¢	$6,240	+$127	Trade ↗
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	60.3¢	$4,102	+$1,288	Trade ↗
Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	70.0¢	$3,450	-$50	Trade ↗
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Yes	66.3¢	$3,285	-$375	Trade ↗
Will Donald Trump be TIME Person of the Year 2026?	No	90.0¢	$2,842	+$77	Trade ↗
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Yes	73.2¢	$2,198	-$276	Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	57.7¢	$1,921	-$319	Trade ↗
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	No	23.8¢	$1,008	+$754	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	12.4¢	$619	+$254	Trade ↗
Will Catherine O'Hara be the #1 searched passing on Google in the US this year?	No	90.7¢	$580	+$44	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?	No	93.3¢	$577	+$20	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	86.3¢	$477	-$79	Trade ↗
Will Mark Carney be TIME Person of the Year 2026?	No	80.0¢	$442	+$19	Trade ↗
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Yes	34.8¢	$378	-$420	Trade ↗
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026?	No	68.0¢	$373	+$28	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?	No	76.0¢	$371	+$29	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	27.0¢	$340	-$534	Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	29.5¢	$324	-$294	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)?	Yes	4.6¢	$309	+$290	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	Yes	48.7¢	$294	-$267	Trade ↗
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	7.6¢	$293	-$201	Trade ↗
Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	Yes	54.9¢	$281	-$153	Trade ↗
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	81.0¢	$218	-$517	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	11.8¢	$188	-$375	Trade ↗
Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?	Yes	56.0¢	$180	-$130	Trade ↗
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027?	Yes	18.1¢	$138	+$57	Trade ↗
SSI public model released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	36.3¢	$135	-$65	Trade ↗
SSI public model released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	44.4¢	$120	-$16	Trade ↗
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	21.1¢	$100	-$74	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	69.2¢	$64	+$8	Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	30.0¢	$59	-$27	Trade ↗
Will P versus NP be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	Yes	1.0¢	$47	+$23	Trade ↗
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?	No	77.0¢	$46	-$218	Trade ↗
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31?	Yes	9.7¢	$34	-$49	Trade ↗
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	1.4¢	$19	-$58	Trade ↗
US strike on Mexico by December 31?	No	83.0¢	$19	+$3	Trade ↗
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?	Yes	15.9¢	$19	-$73	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	1.1¢	$15	+$4	Trade ↗
Will Ali Khamenei be the #1 searched passing on Google in the US this year?	No	-56.9¢	$7	+$11	Trade ↗
Will the Riemann Hypothesis be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	Yes	1.6¢	$6	+$1	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	Yes	4.3¢	$5	-$86	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)?	Yes	4.0¢	$5	-$177	Trade ↗
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?	No	63.0¢	$0	-$3	Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

Time	Market	Side	Outcome	Price	Size
15d ago	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	BUY	Yes	72.9¢	$11,330
15d ago	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	BUY	Yes	90.0¢	$11,059
17d ago	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	BUY	Yes	70.2¢	$10,053
36d ago	Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	BUY	No	99.7¢	$24,828
59d ago	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL	No	87.0¢	$17,613
75d ago	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	SELL	Yes	93.0¢	$13,723
76d ago	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	SELL	Yes	60.0¢	$13,344