archaic

64Qualified whaleProven trader

0x1f0a343513aa6060488fabe96960e6d1e177f7aa· stats updated 1d ago

Realized PnL

+$199,540

closed + open positions

Return on capital

realized PnL ÷ capital deployed

Win rate

100%

500 of 500 resolved

Resolved markets

500

Portfolio value

$181,011

Capital deployed

$10,112,956

lifetime cost of all positions

Tracked whale volume

$35,878

volume seen by WhaleWatcher

Open positions

265

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 16.9/30Return 1.6/25Consistency 25.0/25Sample size 20.0/20Concentration 0.0Total 63.5 / 100

Current positions

Market	Outcome	Avg price	Value	Unrealized PnL	Trade
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	90.8¢	$8,606	+$336	Trade ↗
Will Mark Brown be the next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands following the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?	Yes	95.2¢	$7,432	+$172	Trade ↗
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	95.6¢	$6,529	+$86	Trade ↗
Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 20%-30%?	No	94.1¢	$6,365	+$314	Trade ↗
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?	No	93.6¢	$6,219	-$11	Trade ↗
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	95.7¢	$6,050	+$88	Trade ↗
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	No	92.2¢	$5,589	+$106	Trade ↗
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	89.5¢	$4,757	-$2	Trade ↗
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	92.3¢	$4,650	+$35	Trade ↗
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	71.5¢	$3,826	-$52	Trade ↗
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026?	No	88.9¢	$3,695	+$218	Trade ↗
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026?	No	89.0¢	$3,596	+$191	Trade ↗
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by at least 40%?	No	94.2¢	$3,138	+$112	Trade ↗
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31?	No	91.8¢	$3,137	+$105	Trade ↗
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	87.5¢	$2,583	-$42	Trade ↗
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	No	86.2¢	$2,582	+$123	Trade ↗
Yoon out of custody before 2027?	No	90.6¢	$2,478	+$113	Trade ↗
Will Nasir Idris win the 2027 Kebbi State gubernatorial election?	Yes	87.5¢	$2,439	-$44	Trade ↗
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 31, 2026?	No	92.4¢	$2,303	+$66	Trade ↗
Will Esthela Damián Peralta win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?	No	89.0¢	$2,100	+$153	Trade ↗
Will the African Democratic Congress (ADC) win the most seats in the 2027 Nigerian House of Representatives election?	No	92.5¢	$2,090	-$12	Trade ↗
Andrew Tate released from custody by December 31, 2026?	No	90.8¢	$1,930	-$51	Trade ↗
Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by at least 30%?	No	98.4¢	$1,928	+$15	Trade ↗
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	70.2¢	$1,864	-$18	Trade ↗
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?	No	94.2¢	$1,855	+$26	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	92.0¢	$1,838	$0	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	91.8¢	$1,828	-$5	Trade ↗
Tshisekedi out as President of the DRC by December 31, 2026?	No	91.4¢	$1,748	+$52	Trade ↗
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	70.2¢	$1,735	+$8	Trade ↗
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?	No	93.2¢	$1,561	+$21	Trade ↗
Will Otu Bassey Edet win the 2027 Cross River State gubernatorial election?	Yes	83.6¢	$1,414	-$73	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?	Yes	95.3¢	$1,370	+$9	Trade ↗
Will Tomáš Rec be the next Mayor of Liberec?	No	97.7¢	$1,366	-$0	Trade ↗
Will Pakistan recognize Israel by December 31?	No	93.3¢	$1,325	+$35	Trade ↗
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	86.3¢	$1,297	+$3	Trade ↗
Will MC win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico City Congress election?	No	84.8¢	$1,281	+$88	Trade ↗
Will Solomon Olamilekan Adeola win the 2027 Ogun State gubernatorial election?	Yes	76.9¢	$1,245	-$7	Trade ↗
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	94.0¢	$1,237	+$13	Trade ↗
UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?	No	93.7¢	$1,191	+$9	Trade ↗
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	97.6¢	$1,148	-$4	Trade ↗
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	93.0¢	$1,131	+$6	Trade ↗
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	85.2¢	$1,129	-$125	Trade ↗
Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 State of Mexico Congress election?	Yes	91.0¢	$1,127	+$42	Trade ↗
Will Namadi Umar Alhaji win the 2027 Jigawa State gubernatorial election?	Yes	86.5¢	$1,121	+$13	Trade ↗
Will PVEM win the most seats in the 2027 Zacatecas Congress election?	No	85.8¢	$1,074	+$32	Trade ↗
Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?	Yes	89.6¢	$1,061	-$49	Trade ↗
Will Zandile Hlophe-Mkhwanazi be the next mayor of eThekwini?	No	89.4¢	$1,033	+$58	Trade ↗
Will Frank Chikane be the next mayor of Johannesburg?	No	86.9¢	$1,032	+$53	Trade ↗
Will Sally Doyle win the next Huon Valley mayoral election?	No	98.9¢	$1,021	-$5	Trade ↗
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	91.5¢	$924	+$10	Trade ↗
Will Iliana Iotova win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election?	Yes	96.1¢	$900	+$19	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?	No	95.2¢	$887	+$7	Trade ↗
Will PT win the most seats in the 2027 Campeche Congress election?	No	85.3¢	$883	+$86	Trade ↗
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?	No	76.0¢	$883	-$12	Trade ↗
Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	94.8¢	$869	-$2	Trade ↗
Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	No	87.0¢	$854	-$15	Trade ↗
Will Mutfwang Caleb Manasseh win the 2027 Plateau State gubernatorial election?	Yes	78.4¢	$853	+$38	Trade ↗
Will Roy Charlie Arbaiza Corcuera win the next Trujillo mayoral elections?	Yes	97.1¢	$849	-$25	Trade ↗
Will Masao Uchibori win the 2026 Fukushima gubernatorial election?	Yes	96.0¢	$839	+$1	Trade ↗
Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Oaxaca Congress election?	Yes	82.2¢	$783	+$35	Trade ↗
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by June 30, 2027?	No	86.4¢	$778	+$39	Trade ↗
Will Tunisia recognize Israel by December 31?	No	92.6¢	$756	+$15	Trade ↗
Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Tabasco Congress election?	Yes	74.4¢	$697	+$60	Trade ↗
Will Abubakar Malami win the 2027 Kebbi State gubernatorial election?	No	89.7¢	$674	-$2	Trade ↗
Will MC win the most seats in the 2027 Querétaro Congress election?	No	78.2¢	$664	+$103	Trade ↗
Will Nuevas Ideas (NI) win the most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?	Yes	92.8¢	$664	+$15	Trade ↗
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	66.1¢	$660	-$151	Trade ↗
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	No	95.1¢	$659	+$9	Trade ↗
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	94.6¢	$656	+$3	Trade ↗
Imran Khan released from prison by December 31, 2026?	No	84.5¢	$633	+$45	Trade ↗
Will Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?	No	96.6¢	$624	+$11	Trade ↗
Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?	No	77.6¢	$621	-$36	Trade ↗
Modi out by December 31, 2026?	No	94.5¢	$611	+$12	Trade ↗
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	93.0¢	$609	-$4	Trade ↗
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?	No	81.6¢	$565	-$18	Trade ↗
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	88.7¢	$561	-$9	Trade ↗
Will MC win the most seats in the 2027 Baja California Congress election?	No	90.4¢	$538	+$22	Trade ↗
Will PT win the most seats in the 2027 Tlaxcala Congress election?	No	81.7¢	$534	+$46	Trade ↗
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?	No	89.7¢	$532	+$35	Trade ↗
Will Mbah Peter Ndubuisi win the 2027 Enugu State gubernatorial election?	Yes	76.8¢	$522	-$9	Trade ↗
Will PVEM win the most seats in the 2027 Chihuahua Congress election?	No	82.8¢	$502	+$35	Trade ↗
Will Ntombi Mekgwe be the next mayor of Ekurhuleni?	No	92.4¢	$496	+$20	Trade ↗
Will Peter Freshney win the next Latrobe mayoral election?	No	94.8¢	$492	+$23	Trade ↗
Will Eno Umo Bassey win the 2027 Akwa Ibom State gubernatorial election?	Yes	64.9¢	$491	+$39	Trade ↗
Will Oborevwori Sheriff Francis Orohwedor win the 2027 Delta State gubernatorial election?	Yes	83.8¢	$480	-$125	Trade ↗
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?	No	96.9¢	$474	+$8	Trade ↗
Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?	No	77.8¢	$472	+$59	Trade ↗
Will Jaroslav Baška win the 2026 Trenčín Region gubernatorial election?	Yes	91.9¢	$469	-$25	Trade ↗
Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	84.5¢	$461	-$0	Trade ↗
Will PT win the most seats in the 2027 Nuevo León Congress election?	No	80.1¢	$440	+$53	Trade ↗
Will MC win the most seats in the 2027 Chihuahua Congress election?	No	81.0¢	$439	+$28	Trade ↗
Will Alex Nuttall win the 2026 Barrie mayoral election?	Yes	88.9¢	$432	+$26	Trade ↗
Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	89.5¢	$424	+$11	Trade ↗
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the next Kolkata municipal election?	Yes	91.9¢	$423	-$19	Trade ↗
Will Albert Aníbal Arenas Yabar win the next Cusco mayoral elections?	Yes	96.9¢	$416	-$121	Trade ↗
Will PRI win the most seats in the 2027 Tlaxcala Congress election?	No	87.6¢	$414	+$30	Trade ↗
Will Mario Colberth Reyna Rodríguez win the next Trujillo mayoral elections?	No	98.0¢	$400	+$7	Trade ↗
Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	87.6¢	$375	+$26	Trade ↗
Will Dauda Lawal win the 2027 Zamfara State gubernatorial election?	Yes	79.3¢	$372	+$15	Trade ↗
Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Guerrero Congress election?	Yes	62.3¢	$370	+$100	Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

Time	Market	Side	Outcome	Price	Size
4d ago	Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?	SELL	Yes	89.0¢	$13,299
17d ago	Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?	BUY	Yes	88.0¢	$11,539
18d ago	Will Justina Pula be the next President of Kosovo?	BUY	Yes	99.4¢	$11,039