99problems123

43Qualified whaleProven trader

0x00425c692a667981118f679ef68fdc775257321e· stats updated 2d ago

Realized PnL

+$391,640

closed + open positions

Return on capital

realized PnL ÷ capital deployed

Win rate

52%

171 of 332 resolved

Resolved markets

332

Portfolio value

$98,831

Capital deployed

$14,125,556

lifetime cost of all positions

Tracked whale volume

$34,679

volume seen by WhaleWatcher

Open positions

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 22.4/30Return 2.3/25Consistency 0.9/25Sample size 20.0/20Concentration -3.0Total 42.6 / 100

Current positions

Market	Outcome	Avg price	Value	Unrealized PnL	Trade
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	62.7¢	$39,530	+$3,841	Trade ↗
Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	45.0¢	$22,734	-$11,945	Trade ↗
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	91.1¢	$12,086	-$344	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	85.0¢	$8,650	+$150	Trade ↗
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	30.1¢	$8,176	+$99	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	6.0¢	$3,375	+$1,875	Trade ↗
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	2.0¢	$1,086	+$130	Trade ↗
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	14.0¢	$840	+$717	Trade ↗
Deel IPO before 2027?	No	67.0¢	$816	+$244	Trade ↗
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	66.5¢	$584	+$145	Trade ↗
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	51.8¢	$240	+$110	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	5.9¢	$210	+$188	Trade ↗
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?	No	34.8¢	$165	+$50	Trade ↗
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	74.3¢	$139	-$1,075	Trade ↗
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?	No	30.0¢	$127	+$51	Trade ↗
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	71.1¢	$31	-$308	Trade ↗
Discord IPO before 2027?	No	23.6¢	$12	+$9	Trade ↗
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	0.2¢	$9	-$29	Trade ↗
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	0.1¢	$9	-$9	Trade ↗
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	0.2¢	$6	-$17	Trade ↗
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	0.1¢	$5	-$5	Trade ↗
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	5.0¢	$3	+$1	Trade ↗
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	Yes	7.0¢	$0	-$707	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	22.4¢	$0	-$1,062	Trade ↗
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	Yes	49.9¢	$0	-$1,214	Trade ↗
Iran closes its airspace by May 7?	Yes	3.0¢	$0	-$135	Trade ↗
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	40.7¢	$0	-$446	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	16.0¢	$0	-$852	Trade ↗
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	0.3¢	$0	-$45	Trade ↗
Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	2.9¢	$0	-$1,689	Trade ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	10.7¢	$0	-$127	Trade ↗
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	15.1¢	$0	-$6,895	Trade ↗
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	Yes	30.6¢	$0	-$8,534	Trade ↗
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 22, 2026?	Yes	0.5¢	$0	-$54	Trade ↗
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	11.5¢	$0	-$2,398	Trade ↗
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 15 2026?	Yes	24.0¢	$0	-$36	Trade ↗
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	Yes	7.4¢	$0	-$5,827	Trade ↗
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	21.8¢	$0	-$2,726	Trade ↗
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	14.1¢	$0	-$420	Trade ↗
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	No	15.1¢	$0	-$3,002	Trade ↗
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	Yes	4.1¢	$0	-$15	Trade ↗
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	45.0¢	$0	-$545	Trade ↗
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	2.2¢	$0	-$23	Trade ↗
Will Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	25.7¢	$0	-$545	Trade ↗
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?	Yes	1.9¢	$0	-$4	Trade ↗
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	1.4¢	$0	-$94	Trade ↗
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14	No	15.5¢	$0	-$612	Trade ↗
Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	2.9¢	$0	-$1,689	Trade ↗
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	Yes	35.5¢	$0	-$330	Trade ↗
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	13.8¢	$0	-$1,478	Trade ↗
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in May 2026 (ET)?	Yes	10.4¢	$0	-$520	Trade ↗
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	Yes	30.1¢	$0	-$5,003	Trade ↗
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	20.2¢	$0	-$276	Trade ↗
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	7.2¢	$0	-$1,717	Trade ↗
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?	No	24.2¢	$0	-$5,080	Trade ↗
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	9.8¢	$0	-$32	Trade ↗
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	1.3¢	$0	-$419	Trade ↗
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	Yes	2.6¢	$0	-$4,917	Trade ↗
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	30.0¢	$0	-$2,032	Trade ↗
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	2.9¢	$0	-$1,689	Trade ↗
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	No	70.7¢	$0	-$21,198	Trade ↗
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Luciano Darderi	Rafael Jodar	60.0¢	$0	-$6	Trade ↗
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?	No	84.0¢	$0	-$5,414	Trade ↗
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1.3¢	$0	-$5,362	Trade ↗
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	4.0¢	$0	-$7,075	Trade ↗
Will Discord’s market cap be between $15B and $20B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	20.4¢	$0	-$474	Trade ↗
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026?	No	31.6¢	$0	-$5,584	Trade ↗
Will Discord’s market cap be between $25B and $30B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	16.7¢	$0	-$142	Trade ↗
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	9.8¢	$0	-$1,165	Trade ↗
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	44.1¢	$0	-$10,591	Trade ↗
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	14.5¢	$0	-$9,899	Trade ↗
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	11.9¢	$0	-$413	Trade ↗
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	43.2¢	$0	-$1,113	Trade ↗
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6.3¢	$0	-$25,056	Trade ↗
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	2.9¢	$0	-$1,689	Trade ↗
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	No	5.9¢	$0	-$970	Trade ↗
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	2.9¢	$0	-$1,689	Trade ↗
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	Yes	3.6¢	$0	-$182	Trade ↗
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	9.0¢	$0	-$131	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	18.5¢	$0	-$2,650	Trade ↗
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	0.3¢	$0	-$32	Trade ↗
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	No	2.9¢	$0	-$300	Trade ↗
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	10.0¢	$0	-$5,000	Trade ↗
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?	Yes	18.0¢	$0	-$3,754	Trade ↗
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	5.9¢	$0	-$4,670	Trade ↗
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	Yes	10.0¢	$0	-$5,084	Trade ↗
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	11.3¢	$0	-$2,771	Trade ↗
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	Yes	10.0¢	$0	-$1,005	Trade ↗
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	14.3¢	$0	-$5	Trade ↗
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	7.4¢	$0	-$1,049	Trade ↗
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	15.8¢	$0	-$91	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	7.0¢	$0	-$5,437	Trade ↗
Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026?	No	10.0¢	$0	-$13	Trade ↗
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 14, 2026?	Yes	42.8¢	$0	-$242	Trade ↗
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0.5¢	$0	-$3,917	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	12.3¢	$0	-$1,846	Trade ↗
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 May 11-17?	Yes	19.0¢	$0	-$13	Trade ↗
Will OpenAI have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	1.9¢	$0	-$15	Trade ↗
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April?	Yes	3.2¢	$0	-$310	Trade ↗
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	2.9¢	$0	-$1,689	Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

Time	Market	Side	Outcome	Price	Size
28d ago	Fed rate hike in 2026?	BUY	No	45.0¢	$34,679