cigarettes

92Qualified whaleProven trader

0xd218e474776403a330142299f7796e8ba32eb5c9· stats updated 3h ago

Realized PnL

+$26,439,149

closed + open positions

Return on capital

20%

realized PnL ÷ capital deployed

Win rate

100%

500 of 500 resolved

Resolved markets

500

Portfolio value

$603,061

Capital deployed

$130,544,025

lifetime cost of all positions

Tracked whale volume

$45,162

volume seen by WhaleWatcher

Open positions

500

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 30.0/30Return 16.9/25Consistency 25.0/25Sample size 20.0/20Concentration 0.0Total 91.9 / 100

Current positions

Market	Outcome	Avg price	Value	Unrealized PnL	Trade
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	43.9¢	$26,336	+$12,608	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	32.6¢	$16,741	-$2,764	Trade ↗
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	44.0¢	$15,721	+$3,025	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	31.2¢	$12,532	-$968	Trade ↗
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series?	No	73.3¢	$11,296	+$1,451	Trade ↗
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	95.2¢	$9,336	+$192	Trade ↗
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	5.0¢	$8,245	+$5,978	Trade ↗
Will Rodri finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	90.5¢	$7,657	+$371	Trade ↗
Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	82.3¢	$7,265	+$581	Trade ↗
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	No	81.1¢	$6,121	-$160	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	34.9¢	$5,617	+$89	Trade ↗
Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	No	66.3¢	$5,234	-$1,851	Trade ↗
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	93.8¢	$5,076	+$10	Trade ↗
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	94.6¢	$4,878	+$75	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party win the SC-01 House seat?	Yes	65.8¢	$4,796	-$417	Trade ↗
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	8.1¢	$4,722	+$451	Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	82.1¢	$4,551	+$808	Trade ↗
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	5.5¢	$3,969	+$2,033	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Yes	21.7¢	$3,786	-$648	Trade ↗
Will Dplus KIA win Worlds 2026?	No	90.7¢	$3,532	-$200	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	14.0¢	$3,475	+$121	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party win the PA-01 House seat?	Yes	58.7¢	$3,385	-$261	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-15 House seat?	Yes	84.1¢	$3,198	+$70	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat?	No	61.4¢	$3,183	+$244	Trade ↗
Will Ousmane Dembélé finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	84.2¢	$3,171	+$285	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party win the NC-13 House seat?	Yes	60.7¢	$3,108	+$92	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	27.6¢	$3,012	+$288	Trade ↗
Will FC Midtjylland win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	81.0¢	$2,950	-$1,100	Trade ↗
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	72.3¢	$2,909	+$376	Trade ↗
Barrow AFC vs. Forest Green Rovers FC: O/U 0.5	Over	97.8¢	$2,829	-$203	Trade ↗
Will Michael Olise finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	73.7¢	$2,683	+$82	Trade ↗
Will Golden State Valkyries win the 2026 WNBA Finals?	Yes	25.4¢	$2,624	+$1,250	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?	Yes	42.9¢	$2,532	-$255	Trade ↗
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	99.8¢	$2,481	-$3	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat?	Yes	65.8¢	$2,479	-$239	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party win the VA-05 House seat?	Yes	68.2¢	$2,474	-$103	Trade ↗
Will Michael Olise finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	95.1¢	$2,459	+$84	Trade ↗
Will Ousmane Dembélé finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	96.5¢	$2,432	+$9	Trade ↗
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	21.0¢	$2,361	+$254	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	35.0¢	$2,283	-$102	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	No	38.5¢	$2,266	-$505	Trade ↗
Will Monica Crowley be the next White House Press Secretary?	No	98.0¢	$2,218	+$6	Trade ↗
FC Midtjylland vs. Lyngby BK: O/U 4.5	Under	72.0¢	$2,178	-$198	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	47.2¢	$2,144	-$878	Trade ↗
Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	95.2¢	$2,045	+$54	Trade ↗
Will Georgia Bulldogs win the 2027 CFP National Championship?	No	81.3¢	$2,017	-$73	Trade ↗
Will Fabian Ruiz finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	89.8¢	$1,996	+$16	Trade ↗
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	No	67.5¢	$1,969	-$162	Trade ↗
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	27.5¢	$1,913	+$68	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party win the KY-06 House seat?	No	58.1¢	$1,875	-$201	Trade ↗
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	23.6¢	$1,852	-$1,651	Trade ↗
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	66.3¢	$1,835	+$6	Trade ↗
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?	Yes	88.5¢	$1,835	-$305	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party win the KY-06 House seat?	Yes	59.8¢	$1,778	-$228	Trade ↗
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?	Yes	16.4¢	$1,768	+$1,045	Trade ↗
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?	Yes	4.5¢	$1,735	+$1,574	Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	77.3¢	$1,726	+$383	Trade ↗
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	Yes	18.4¢	$1,569	+$285	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party win the CO-04 House seat?	No	72.0¢	$1,554	-$45	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party win the MT-01 House seat?	Yes	59.0¢	$1,468	-$106	Trade ↗
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	20.4¢	$1,423	+$4	Trade ↗
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	5.4¢	$1,415	-$727	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	31.6¢	$1,377	+$185	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	Yes	35.1¢	$1,365	-$156	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party win the PA-01 House seat?	No	58.8¢	$1,351	-$94	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party win the AL-02 House seat?	Yes	69.3¢	$1,291	-$6	Trade ↗
Will Atlanta Dream win the 2026 WNBA Finals?	Yes	29.3¢	$1,253	+$539	Trade ↗
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	23.3¢	$1,206	-$522	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party win the AR-02 House seat?	No	79.8¢	$1,198	+$26	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party win the NY-17 House seat?	Yes	39.3¢	$1,187	-$41	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	73.3¢	$1,185	+$19	Trade ↗
Will Yashar win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	62.6¢	$1,171	+$101	Trade ↗
Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?	Yes	11.7¢	$1,165	+$801	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party win the TX-35 House seat?	No	63.9¢	$1,151	+$29	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?	Yes	4.9¢	$1,146	-$467	Trade ↗
England and Sri Lanka Tour of Pakistan ODIs: Pakistan vs England	Pakistan	76.0¢	$1,134	-$235	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	35.7¢	$1,133	-$75	Trade ↗
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 30, 2026?	No	72.1¢	$1,124	-$69	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party win the IA-02 House seat?	Yes	40.3¢	$1,116	-$461	Trade ↗
Will Ryan Blaney win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series championship?	No	92.3¢	$1,113	-$50	Trade ↗
StandX FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	62.4¢	$1,110	+$408	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-35 House seat?	Yes	65.2¢	$1,104	+$14	Trade ↗
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	No	37.7¢	$1,047	-$115	Trade ↗
Will T1 win Worlds 2026?	Yes	7.0¢	$1,040	+$601	Trade ↗
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	87.7¢	$1,029	-$375	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	63.0¢	$961	+$8	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat?	No	62.4¢	$960	+$85	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party win the OH-10 House seat?	Yes	78.4¢	$959	-$139	Trade ↗
Will STRC hit $100 by November 30?	No	10.0¢	$956	+$714	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-03 House seat?	Yes	90.0¢	$954	+$10	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party win the TN-04 House seat?	Yes	91.9¢	$941	+$50	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	No	92.0¢	$937	$0	Trade ↗
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Yes	11.2¢	$927	-$456	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party win the IN-05 House seat?	Yes	83.4¢	$895	-$10	Trade ↗
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	76.9¢	$889	+$80	Trade ↗
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	0.8¢	$888	+$623	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party win the KS-02 House seat?	Yes	82.1¢	$888	-$29	Trade ↗
Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	20.8¢	$884	+$164	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026?	Yes	7.9¢	$879	+$58	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party win the AR-02 House seat?	Yes	77.0¢	$874	+$38	Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

Time	Market	Side	Outcome	Price	Size
28d ago	Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs Galorys (BO3) - FERJEE In House Playoffs	SELL	Galorys	99.9¢	$10,228
43d ago	Gardner-Webb vs. Liberty	BUY	Liberty	95.5¢	$15,089
70d ago	Will San Diego FC win on 2026-08-15?	SELL	Yes	99.9¢	$19,845