ExcaIibur

0x9fa8614cf56a2b39b0586e5ffcc8598d7bac593a· stats updated 5d ago

Realized PnL

-$277

closed + open positions

Return on capital

realized PnL ÷ capital deployed

Win rate

51%

44 of 86 resolved

Resolved markets

Portfolio value

$2,478

Capital deployed

$159,324

lifetime cost of all positions

Tracked whale volume

$13,336

volume seen by WhaleWatcher

Open positions

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 0.0/30Return 0.0/25Consistency 0.7/25Sample size 14.4/20Concentration -2.0Total 13.0 / 100

Market	Outcome	Avg price	Value	Unrealized PnL	Trade
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	86.1¢	$873	-$372	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Yes	83.2¢	$631	-$2,059	Trade ↗
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	91.0¢	$546	-$815	Trade ↗
Putin meets with Iranian officials by August 31?	Yes	64.0¢	$200	+$72	Trade ↗
Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026?	Yes	22.0¢	$89	-$2	Trade ↗
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	No	70.2¢	$75	-$517	Trade ↗
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	Yes	38.0¢	$53	-$43	Trade ↗
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	21.4¢	$12	-$37	Trade ↗
Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China?	No	15.5¢	$0	-$154	Trade ↗
Will Russia target Kyiv by August 10, 2026?	Yes	2.5¢	$0	-$1	Trade ↗
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12?	No	57.6¢	$0	-$179	Trade ↗
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 66m?	Yes	10.0¢	$0	-$30	Trade ↗
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?	Yes	2.1¢	$0	-$11	Trade ↗
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 5, 2026?	Yes	15.5¢	$0	-$85	Trade ↗
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 11, 2026?	Yes	7.2¢	$0	-$29	Trade ↗

Time	Market	Side	Outcome	Price	Size
33d ago	Iran leadership change by August 31?	SELL	No	95.0¢	$13,336