pagliacci4

64Qualified whaleProven trader

0x9b559c039873cd794668492af33b748b6b0a1167· stats updated 1d ago

Realized PnL

+$107,842

closed + open positions

Return on capital

realized PnL ÷ capital deployed

Win rate

100%

500 of 500 resolved

Resolved markets

500

Portfolio value

$39,722

Capital deployed

$1,290,657

lifetime cost of all positions

Tracked whale volume

$24,441

volume seen by WhaleWatcher

Open positions

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 11.9/30Return 7.0/25Consistency 25.0/25Sample size 20.0/20Concentration 0.0Total 63.9 / 100

Current positions

Market	Outcome	Avg price	Value	Unrealized PnL	Trade
Andy Burnham out as UK PM by December 31?	No	93.0¢	$7,325	-$12	Trade ↗
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	96.0¢	$4,312	+$65	Trade ↗
Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	Yes	93.6¢	$3,721	-$15	Trade ↗
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–80%?	No	89.8¢	$3,451	+$327	Trade ↗
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?	No	94.7¢	$2,638	+$91	Trade ↗
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?	Yes	98.8¢	$2,553	+$5	Trade ↗
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?	No	91.6¢	$1,889	+$39	Trade ↗
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by March 31, 2027?	No	76.9¢	$1,866	+$147	Trade ↗
Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?	No	95.1¢	$1,590	+$7	Trade ↗
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	Yes	94.2¢	$1,388	-$24	Trade ↗
Will Sal Stewart win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?	Yes	84.1¢	$1,333	-$25	Trade ↗
Will "Ali G: Who Iz I?" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $4M and $5M?	No	99.0¢	$1,141	+$7	Trade ↗
Will "Ali G: Who Iz I?" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $5M and $6M?	No	99.0¢	$897	+$6	Trade ↗
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) be in the next Swedish government?	No	96.7¢	$819	-$18	Trade ↗
Will Pam Alexis win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?	No	91.6¢	$714	+$34	Trade ↗
US plague travel ban on Russia in 2026?	No	90.2¢	$652	+$39	Trade ↗
Will "Ali G: Who Iz I?" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least $6M?	No	99.0¢	$572	+$3	Trade ↗
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by December 31?	No	90.6¢	$435	-$8	Trade ↗
Will Serbia call its presidential election by October 31, 2026?	No	59.6¢	$382	+$83	Trade ↗
Will Greens win the third most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?	Yes	96.8¢	$374	+$8	Trade ↗
Nothing Ever Happens: October	Nothing	96.7¢	$292	+$2	Trade ↗
Abiy Ahmed out as Prime Minister of Ethiopia in 2026?	No	92.5¢	$268	+$9	Trade ↗
Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by October 31?	No	88.9¢	$231	+$12	Trade ↗
Turkish troops enter Yemen by October 31, 2026?	No	96.8¢	$221	+$4	Trade ↗
Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $100M one day after launch?	Yes	78.0¢	$164	-$7	Trade ↗
Will Lorenzo Pazolini win the Governor of Espírito Santo election?	Yes	88.0¢	$120	+$12	Trade ↗
Will anyone insult Donald Trump during the 2026 Emmy Awards?	No	85.7¢	$89	+$7	Trade ↗
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026?	No	81.0¢	$69	+$4	Trade ↗
Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	No	81.0¢	$63	+$4	Trade ↗
Will Serbia call its presidential election by November 30, 2026?	Yes	87.3¢	$61	+$0	Trade ↗
Trump Admin held in contempt over press ban by October 31?	No	85.5¢	$37	-$2	Trade ↗
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	93.0¢	$11	+$0	Trade ↗
Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	77.0¢	$11	+$2	Trade ↗
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	95.8¢	$10	+$0	Trade ↗
Will Miloš Vučević win the next Serbia presidential election?	No	96.8¢	$9	-$1	Trade ↗
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	No	78.0¢	$9	+$1	Trade ↗
Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	97.7¢	$5	+$0	Trade ↗
Bulls vs. Bucks: O/U 252.5	Under	76.0¢	$0	-$432	Trade ↗
Will CSyD Defensa y Justicia win on 2026-09-18?	Yes	95.0¢	$0	-$169	Trade ↗
Japan leading at halftime?	Yes	89.8¢	$0	-$105	Trade ↗
Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5	Under	63.0¢	$0	-$252	Trade ↗
England and Sri Lanka Tour of Pakistan ODIs: Pakistan vs England	England	78.0¢	$0	-$1,697	Trade ↗
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs	T1	92.0¢	$0	-$665	Trade ↗
Hanshin Tigers vs. Hiroshima Carp	Hiroshima Carp	98.0¢	$0	-$16	Trade ↗
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5	Under	89.0¢	$0	-$342	Trade ↗
Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5	Under	77.6¢	$0	-$300	Trade ↗
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Up	82.9¢	$0	-$100	Trade ↗
Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5	Under	61.0¢	$0	-$175	Trade ↗
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5	Under	87.0¢	$0	-$1,479	Trade ↗
UFC 331: Tai Tuivasa vs. Robelis Despaigne (Heavyweight, Prelims)	Tai Tuivasa	68.3¢	$0	-$1,650	Trade ↗
UFC Fight Night: Modestas Bukauskas vs. Oumar Sy (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)	Oumar Sy	82.9¢	$0	-$1,078	Trade ↗
Fight to Go the Distance?	Yes	77.9¢	$0	-$100	Trade ↗
Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5	Under	58.0¢	$0	-$800	Trade ↗
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	Yes	98.8¢	$0	-$988	Trade ↗
ICC Men's T20 World Cup Europe Sub Regional Qualifier C: Bulgaria vs Luxembourg	Luxembourg	66.4¢	$0	-$842	Trade ↗
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays	No	57.0¢	$0	-$171	Trade ↗
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	92.2¢	$0	-$970	Trade ↗
Will Aberdeen FC win on 2026-08-01?	No	92.0¢	$0	-$667	Trade ↗
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs	Chicago Cubs	62.0¢	$0	-$310	Trade ↗
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds	78.0¢	$0	-$1,178	Trade ↗
Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by October 31?	No	92.0¢	$0	-$314	Trade ↗
UFC Fight Night: Namsrai Batbayar vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card)	Namsrai Batbayar	4.0¢	$0	-$144	Trade ↗
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5	Over	90.0¢	$0	-$300	Trade ↗
Miami Marlins vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5	Under	70.0¢	$0	-$700	Trade ↗
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5	Under	64.0¢	$0	-$129	Trade ↗
Will Granada CF win on 2026-10-04?	No	98.7¢	$0	-$4,521	Trade ↗
West Indies Tour of India T20s: India vs West Indies	India	98.0¢	$0	-$98	Trade ↗
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Hanwha Eagles	Hanwha Eagles	88.0¢	$0	-$1,696	Trade ↗
UFC Fight Night: Yan Xiaonan vs. Denise Gomes (Women's Strawweight, Main Card)	Yan Xiaonan	58.0¢	$0	-$174	Trade ↗
Cricket World Cup League 2: Canada vs Nepal	Nepal	65.9¢	$0	-$424	Trade ↗
76ers vs. Celtics	Celtics	68.0¢	$0	-$200	Trade ↗
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 3.5	Under	76.0¢	$0	-$128	Trade ↗
Columbia vs. Marist: O/U 59.5	Under	90.5¢	$0	-$1,883	Trade ↗
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-09-22?	Yes	80.0¢	$0	-$418	Trade ↗
SK Rapid Wien vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: Team to Advance	SK Rapid Wien	74.6¢	$0	-$704	Trade ↗
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5	Under	65.8¢	$0	-$2,404	Trade ↗
Northwestern vs. Indiana: O/U 51.5	Under	92.0¢	$0	-$207	Trade ↗
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves	No	61.0¢	$0	-$109	Trade ↗
The Hundred: Trent Rockets vs Sunrisers Leeds	Sunrisers Leeds	83.0¢	$0	-$1,162	Trade ↗
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. NC Dinos	NC Dinos	75.8¢	$0	-$227	Trade ↗
New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5	Under	70.0¢	$0	-$231	Trade ↗
Bills vs. Rams: O/U 66.5	Under	90.4¢	$0	-$1,873	Trade ↗
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Umar Nurmagomedov (Bantamweight, Main Card)	Umar Nurmagomedov	83.0¢	$0	-$727	Trade ↗
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?	No	65.0¢	$0	-$140	Trade ↗
Will Preston Lions FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC end in a draw?	Yes	72.5¢	$0	-$203	Trade ↗
Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5	Under	63.0¢	$0	-$200	Trade ↗
ILT20 Continent Cup: Rwanda vs Uganda	Rwanda	4.5¢	$0	-$88	Trade ↗
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5	Under	70.0¢	$0	-$1,007	Trade ↗
Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro win on 2026-10-18?	No	93.0¢	$0	-$598	Trade ↗
UFC Fight Night: Chelsea Chandler vs. Melissa Croden (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)	Melissa Croden	77.0¢	$0	-$385	Trade ↗
Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5	Under	84.0¢	$0	-$654	Trade ↗
No change flips Hike 25 bps for October Fed by September 30?	No	93.2¢	$0	-$171	Trade ↗
Will Sabah FK win on 2026-10-13?	No	78.0¢	$0	-$309	Trade ↗
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-08-23?	Yes	76.0¢	$0	-$760	Trade ↗
Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5	Under	92.4¢	$0	-$2,026	Trade ↗
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5	Under	61.0¢	$0	-$357	Trade ↗
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. NC Dinos	NC Dinos	80.0¢	$0	-$706	Trade ↗
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers	Detroit Tigers	78.4¢	$0	-$1,518	Trade ↗
UFC 331: Marlon Vera vs. Charles Jourdain (Bantamweight, Prelims)	Charles Jourdain	64.0¢	$0	-$384	Trade ↗
Fight to Go the Distance?	Yes	78.0¢	$0	-$780	Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

Time	Market	Side	Outcome	Price	Size
8d ago	Trail Blazers vs. Warriors	BUY	Warriors	99.9¢	$11,986
18d ago	Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	BUY	No	99.2¢	$12,455