occasionalAwareness

82Qualified whaleProven trader

0x8a4c788f043023b8b28a762216d037e9f148532b· stats updated 2d ago

Realized PnL

+$3,578,381

closed + open positions

Return on capital

realized PnL ÷ capital deployed

Win rate

100%

500 of 500 resolved

Resolved markets

500

Portfolio value

$233,560

Capital deployed

$43,644,423

lifetime cost of all positions

Tracked whale volume

$42,784

volume seen by WhaleWatcher

Open positions

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 30.0/30Return 6.8/25Consistency 25.0/25Sample size 20.0/20Concentration 0.0Total 81.8 / 100

Current positions

Market	Outcome	Avg price	Value	Unrealized PnL	Trade
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	90.0¢	$54,866	+$303	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	44.3¢	$34,705	+$14,486	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	37.3¢	$33,812	+$12,989	Trade ↗
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	No	90.5¢	$26,812	+$1,858	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	48.0¢	$25,388	-$19,746	Trade ↗
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	48.0¢	$12,872	-$6,742	Trade ↗
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	29.9¢	$9,759	+$2,343	Trade ↗
Plague pandemic in 2026?	No	94.5¢	$8,096	+$296	Trade ↗
Will North Carolina enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?	No	94.0¢	$5,964	+$188	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	14.8¢	$5,187	+$61	Trade ↗
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	48.2¢	$3,040	-$366	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	Yes	11.5¢	$2,462	+$894	Trade ↗
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	No	12.1¢	$1,740	+$340	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?	Yes	6.9¢	$1,728	-$1,995	Trade ↗
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	Yes	46.0¢	$1,463	-$5,620	Trade ↗
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	3.9¢	$1,282	-$1,756	Trade ↗
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?	Yes	18.6¢	$1,083	-$1,790	Trade ↗
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	Yes	19.9¢	$751	-$1,970	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?	Yes	10.1¢	$590	-$521	Trade ↗
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31?	Yes	73.6¢	$291	-$151	Trade ↗
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	20.5¢	$192	-$411	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	No	2.0¢	$155	+$83	Trade ↗
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?	Yes	21.0¢	$147	-$531	Trade ↗
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?	No	22.0¢	$139	+$29	Trade ↗
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?	Yes	12.0¢	$137	-$484	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	OpenAI	25.0¢	$125	-$532	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?	Yes	11.3¢	$106	-$219	Trade ↗
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1.8¢	$103	-$237	Trade ↗
Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	15.9¢	$94	-$638	Trade ↗
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes	27.5¢	$79	-$29	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	No	75.0¢	$73	+$13	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in January 2027 (ET)?	Yes	1.1¢	$68	+$62	Trade ↗
Will CDU be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?	No	89.9¢	$53	+$3	Trade ↗
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	21.2¢	$51	-$781	Trade ↗
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?	Yes	3.7¢	$47	-$116	Trade ↗
SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?	OpenAI	10.1¢	$35	+$19	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	Yes	1.2¢	$26	-$4	Trade ↗
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?	Yes	3.2¢	$12	-$9	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $200B and $300B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	Yes	0.2¢	$9	+$6	Trade ↗
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	0.8¢	$7	+$1	Trade ↗
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	5.0¢	$5	-$35	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $300B and $400B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	Yes	0.3¢	$2	-$3	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	Yes	0.3¢	$2	-$7	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	Yes	0.2¢	$1	-$2	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	Yes	12.0¢	$0	-$7	Trade ↗
Will Grüne win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?	Yes	0.6¢	$0	-$28	Trade ↗
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.2T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	3.2¢	$0	-$20	Trade ↗
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?	Yes	0.3¢	$0	$0	Trade ↗
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?	Yes	37.5¢	$0	-$150	Trade ↗
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	No	27.0¢	$0	-$378	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.3T by August 31?	Yes	12.9¢	$0	-$184	Trade ↗
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30?	Yes	9.7¢	$0	-$580	Trade ↗
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?	No	11.1¢	$0	-$222	Trade ↗
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.2T and $1.4T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	2.8¢	$0	-$19	Trade ↗
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31?	No	12.0¢	$0	-$144	Trade ↗
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31?	No	12.0¢	$0	-$600	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by August 31?	Yes	0.8¢	$0	-$21	Trade ↗
Will AfD win the most seats in 1 German state election in September 2026?	Yes	7.4¢	$0	-$51	Trade ↗
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026?	Yes	8.0¢	$0	-$55	Trade ↗
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5.3¢	$0	-$3,031	Trade ↗
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	5.7¢	$0	-$29	Trade ↗
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	40.0¢	$0	-$275	Trade ↗
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	Yes	9.1¢	$0	-$1,550	Trade ↗
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	22.3¢	$0	-$1,247	Trade ↗
Will Grüne win less than 3% of all valid second votes?	Yes	0.1¢	$0	-$15	Trade ↗
Will AfD win the most seats in 0 German state elections in September 2026?	Yes	0.3¢	$0	-$0	Trade ↗
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	42.3¢	$0	-$615	Trade ↗
Will AfD win the most seats in 2 German state elections in September 2026?	No	20.6¢	$0	-$103	Trade ↗
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5.3¢	$0	-$4,535	Trade ↗
Will AfD win the most seats in 3 German state elections in September 2026?	Yes	14.6¢	$0	-$90	Trade ↗
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	Yes	0.7¢	$0	-$38	Trade ↗
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	1.5¢	$0	-$995	Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

Time	Market	Side	Outcome	Price	Size
8d ago	Will North Carolina enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?	SELL	No	98.1¢	$10,488
11d ago	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	SELL	Yes	77.6¢	$13,582
19d ago	Will North Carolina enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?	BUY	No	94.0¢	$18,714