LJa7io23MCv954j

57Qualified whaleProven trader

0x85a85805bcbdf2e629788adac1420b6b53949281· stats updated 11h ago

Realized PnL

+$75,664

closed + open positions

Return on capital

realized PnL ÷ capital deployed

Win rate

89%

118 of 133 resolved

Resolved markets

133

Portfolio value

$110,068

Capital deployed

$907,647

lifetime cost of all positions

Tracked whale volume

$13,480

volume seen by WhaleWatcher

Open positions

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 9.0/30Return 7.0/25Consistency 24.2/25Sample size 17.3/20Concentration 0.0Total 57.4 / 100

Current positions

Market	Outcome	Avg price	Value	Unrealized PnL	Trade
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	No	31.3¢	$15,773	+$10,369	Trade ↗
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?	No	37.9¢	$12,839	+$6,982	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	No	90.9¢	$12,513	+$937	Trade ↗
Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	No	72.9¢	$9,663	-$624	Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	74.2¢	$9,420	+$949	Trade ↗
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?	No	80.7¢	$8,075	+$1,067	Trade ↗
Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31?	No	65.5¢	$5,037	+$146	Trade ↗
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	No	67.9¢	$4,508	+$655	Trade ↗
Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?	No	87.0¢	$4,452	+$355	Trade ↗
Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	87.3¢	$4,113	-$264	Trade ↗
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes	75.0¢	$3,925	+$175	Trade ↗
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Yes	62.7¢	$3,848	+$903	Trade ↗
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	86.0¢	$3,533	$0	Trade ↗
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	75.7¢	$3,201	+$568	Trade ↗
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in the United States by December 31, 2026?	No	72.5¢	$2,735	+$710	Trade ↗
US x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026?	No	62.9¢	$2,727	+$790	Trade ↗
Will Likud be in the next Israeli government?	No	61.0¢	$963	+$117	Trade ↗
Will Ra'am be in the next Israeli government?	Yes	18.2¢	$555	+$212	Trade ↗
Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by December 31, 2026?	No	84.2¢	$537	+$29	Trade ↗
Will Otzma Yehudit be in the next Israeli government?	No	56.5¢	$419	+$63	Trade ↗
Ilhan Omar arrested by December 31, 2026?	No	73.2¢	$356	+$32	Trade ↗
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	No	67.5¢	$343	+$93	Trade ↗
Israel military action against Syria by November 30, 2026?	No	79.6¢	$207	-$95	Trade ↗
Israel military action against Syria by October 31, 2026?	No	89.7¢	$124	-$20	Trade ↗
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	No	41.0¢	$64	+$15	Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	62.0¢	$50	-$1	Trade ↗
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by December 31?	No	43.6¢	$48	+$26	Trade ↗
Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?	No	65.4¢	$36	+$2	Trade ↗
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	1.7¢	$3	+$0	Trade ↗
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?	Yes	79.4¢	$0	-$6,000	Trade ↗
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?	Yes	23.0¢	$0	-$67	Trade ↗
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?	No	67.2¢	$0	-$3,381	Trade ↗
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?	No	38.0¢	$0	-$1,221	Trade ↗
Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026?	No	69.4¢	$0	-$4,417	Trade ↗
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?	No	41.4¢	$0	-$303	Trade ↗
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?	Yes	0.9¢	$0	-$40	Trade ↗
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?	No	21.4¢	$0	-$1,152	Trade ↗
US bank failure by July 31?	No	82.9¢	$0	-$919	Trade ↗
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?	Yes	6.0¢	$0	-$5	Trade ↗
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	No	16.0¢	$0	-$128	Trade ↗
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?	No	76.6¢	$0	-$1,176	Trade ↗
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?	No	91.0¢	$0	-$1,348	Trade ↗
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	0.4¢	$0	-$4	Trade ↗
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 15?	No	51.2¢	$0	-$189	Trade ↗
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7?	No	84.0¢	$0	-$48	Trade ↗
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31?	No	2.4¢	$0	-$1	Trade ↗
Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by September 4, 2026?	No	31.4¢	$0	-$6,426	Trade ↗
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 18?	No	85.3¢	$0	-$584	Trade ↗
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?	Yes	5.0¢	$0	-$5	Trade ↗
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	No	85.6¢	$0	-$3,353	Trade ↗
Iran successfully targets shipping by August 16, 2026?	No	60.3¢	$0	-$180	Trade ↗
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 31, 2026?	No	31.2¢	$0	-$488	Trade ↗
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	17.6¢	$0	-$47	Trade ↗
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by September 30?	No	62.5¢	$0	-$549	Trade ↗
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	88.5¢	$0	-$8,400	Trade ↗
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?	No	61.9¢	$0	-$909	Trade ↗
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 20?	No	82.0¢	$0	-$864	Trade ↗
Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, 2026?	No	68.4¢	$0	-$842	Trade ↗
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?	No	59.0¢	$0	-$577	Trade ↗
Iran closes its airspace by July 31?	No	64.4¢	$0	-$3,236	Trade ↗
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?	No	86.3¢	$0	-$1,651	Trade ↗
Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by September 15, 2026?	No	13.3¢	$0	-$1,374	Trade ↗
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	No	12.5¢	$0	-$250	Trade ↗
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?	No	61.2¢	$0	-$2,304	Trade ↗
Starmer out by October 31, 2026?	No	16.3¢	$0	-$569	Trade ↗
Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?	No	58.2¢	$0	-$18,679	Trade ↗
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14?	No	74.5¢	$0	-$397	Trade ↗
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 24, 2026?	No	90.8¢	$0	-$225	Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

Time	Market	Side	Outcome	Price	Size
1d ago	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	SELL	No	93.0¢	$13,480