Hannah-Montana

0x521bf1c6a5435219b599127d85b7afe28758db60· stats updated 1d ago

Realized PnL

-$7,216

closed + open positions

Return on capital

realized PnL ÷ capital deployed

Win rate

66%

313 of 471 resolved

Resolved markets

471

Portfolio value

$18,642

Capital deployed

$1,900,766

lifetime cost of all positions

Tracked whale volume

$12,091

volume seen by WhaleWatcher

Open positions

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 0.0/30Return 0.0/25Consistency 10.3/25Sample size 20.0/20Concentration -0.7Total 29.6 / 100

Current positions

Market	Outcome	Avg price	Value	Unrealized PnL	Trade
Will Zoran Janković win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election?	Yes	54.0¢	$5,333	+$1,388	Trade ↗
Will OpenRouter process between 675T and 725T tokens from Sep 28 to Oct 25?	Yes	63.8¢	$2,495	+$881	Trade ↗
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	58.8¢	$2,135	+$26	Trade ↗
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	69.0¢	$2,041	+$483	Trade ↗
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1530 by June 30, 2027?	No	61.6¢	$1,103	+$42	Trade ↗
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	73.0¢	$1,016	+$187	Trade ↗
Will OpenRouter process less than 575T tokens from Sep 28 to Oct 25?	No	89.0¢	$891	+$97	Trade ↗
Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	Yes	53.7¢	$515	+$167	Trade ↗
Will OpenRouter process between 575T and 625T tokens from Sep 28 to Oct 25?	No	72.9¢	$468	+$127	Trade ↗
Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	Yes	49.4¢	$415	-$722	Trade ↗
Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	68.3¢	$304	-$95	Trade ↗
Will SDP BiH win the third most seats in the 2026 Bosnian general election?	Yes	56.1¢	$181	+$40	Trade ↗
Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	Yes	52.1¢	$180	-$648	Trade ↗
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1540 by June 30, 2027?	No	78.0¢	$179	+$13	Trade ↗
Will OpenAI have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	No	46.4¢	$178	-$215	Trade ↗
Will OpenRouter process between 625T and 675T tokens from Oct 26 to Nov 22?	No	82.0¢	$159	+$27	Trade ↗
Will Meta be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	70.1¢	$157	+$3	Trade ↗
Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	32.3¢	$137	-$102	Trade ↗
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?	No	40.0¢	$123	+$14	Trade ↗
Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	81.9¢	$91	+$15	Trade ↗
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	0.4¢	$89	-$6	Trade ↗
Will Katie Zacharia give another press briefing as Press Secretary?	No	50.0¢	$73	+$35	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of December 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	23.5¢	$72	+$8	Trade ↗
Will Klemen Boštjančič win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election?	Yes	3.9¢	$44	-$48	Trade ↗
Will OpenRouter process less than 625T tokens from Oct 26 to Nov 22?	No	90.0¢	$40	+$3	Trade ↗
Will Anton Rop win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election?	Yes	2.3¢	$37	+$4	Trade ↗
Will Aleš Vrhovec win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election?	Yes	2.3¢	$29	-$3	Trade ↗
Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut at a score of at least 1530 by June 30, 2027?	No	62.0¢	$28	+$4	Trade ↗
Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?	No	50.0¢	$23	-$7	Trade ↗
Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut at a score of at least 1540 by June 30, 2027?	No	77.8¢	$18	+$1	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	54.0¢	$17	+$6	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	45.0¢	$12	+$3	Trade ↗
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	34.0¢	$11	+$4	Trade ↗
Will HDZ BiH win the third most seats in the 2026 Bosnian general election?	Yes	57.2¢	$8	-$177	Trade ↗
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027?	Yes	17.0¢	$8	-$2	Trade ↗
Will Aleksandar Repić win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election?	Yes	2.3¢	$6	-$27	Trade ↗
Will Google have the best AI Agent at the end of November 2026?	Yes	6.9¢	$6	-$2	Trade ↗
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	95.0¢	$5	+$0	Trade ↗
Will OpenRouter process between 625T and 675T tokens from Sep 28 to Oct 25?	Yes	40.5¢	$3	-$230	Trade ↗
Will the next Muse Spark model (1.4+) debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027?	No	24.9¢	$3	+$1	Trade ↗
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	1.4¢	$2	-$1	Trade ↗
Will Gregor Novak win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election?	Yes	2.3¢	$2	-$30	Trade ↗
Will Jasmin Feratović win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election?	Yes	2.3¢	$2	-$30	Trade ↗
Will Aleš Primc win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election?	Yes	2.3¢	$2	-$30	Trade ↗
Will Apolonija Simon win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election?	Yes	2.3¢	$2	-$28	Trade ↗
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1400 by June 30, 2027?	No	7.0¢	$0	-$47	Trade ↗
Will Meta's Watermelon model debut at a score of at least 1505 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	32.0¢	$0	-$96	Trade ↗
Will Z.ai have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	Yes	1.1¢	$0	-$1	Trade ↗
Will Z.ai have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	Yes	0.5¢	$0	-$1	Trade ↗
Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	82.6¢	$0	-$214	Trade ↗
Will Meta's Watermelon model debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	22.0¢	$0	-$54	Trade ↗
Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	Yes	53.0¢	$0	-$127	Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

Time	Market	Side	Outcome	Price	Size
54d ago	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	BUY	Yes	40.3¢	$12,091