aenews2

89Qualified whaleProven trader

0x44c1dfe43260c94ed4f1d00de2e1f80fb113ebc1· stats updated 1d ago

Realized PnL

+$18,616,192

closed + open positions

Return on capital

20%

realized PnL ÷ capital deployed

Win rate

100%

500 of 500 resolved

Resolved markets

500

Portfolio value

$187,901

Capital deployed

$94,441,955

lifetime cost of all positions

Tracked whale volume

$566,602

volume seen by WhaleWatcher

Open positions

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 30.0/30Return 16.4/25Consistency 25.0/25Sample size 20.0/20Concentration -2.6Total 88.8 / 100

Current positions

Market	Outcome	Avg price	Value	Unrealized PnL	Trade
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	13.8¢	$71,363	+$7,903	Trade ↗
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	43.8¢	$47,936	+$7,964	Trade ↗
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	22.2¢	$17,490	-$1,443	Trade ↗
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	59.1¢	$14,136	+$2,026	Trade ↗
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?	Yes	81.8¢	$5,891	-$620	Trade ↗
Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	94.6¢	$4,964	+$140	Trade ↗
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	69.3¢	$3,570	-$4,048	Trade ↗
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	23.7¢	$1,882	-$4,975	Trade ↗
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	40.4¢	$1,675	-$3,337	Trade ↗
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	37.7¢	$1,576	-$114	Trade ↗
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	93.2¢	$1,499	+$66	Trade ↗
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	20.7¢	$1,384	-$4,850	Trade ↗
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	13.5¢	$1,167	-$936	Trade ↗
Will there be at least 3500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	65.0¢	$1,091	+$377	Trade ↗
China x Japan military clash before 2027?	Yes	7.6¢	$1,079	-$181	Trade ↗
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	56.8¢	$1,001	-$1,469	Trade ↗
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	33.8¢	$908	-$517	Trade ↗
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	39.2¢	$799	-$1,709	Trade ↗
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	34.4¢	$769	+$493	Trade ↗
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Yes	40.7¢	$631	-$1,142	Trade ↗
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	32.4¢	$626	-$36	Trade ↗
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	8.5¢	$451	-$94	Trade ↗
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	22.3¢	$388	-$943	Trade ↗
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	Yes	8.2¢	$372	-$626	Trade ↗
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	26.5¢	$370	+$7	Trade ↗
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	67.2¢	$368	-$1,611	Trade ↗
Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2028?	Yes	16.8¢	$353	+$220	Trade ↗
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	Yes	30.8¢	$315	-$256	Trade ↗
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?	Yes	13.1¢	$255	-$139	Trade ↗
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Yes	18.4¢	$244	-$445	Trade ↗
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by September 30?	Yes	42.4¢	$238	-$72	Trade ↗
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?	Yes	19.9¢	$209	-$281	Trade ↗
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?	Yes	8.4¢	$183	-$96	Trade ↗
Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in September?	Yes	62.6¢	$183	-$13	Trade ↗
Will 1 person leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?	No	87.8¢	$165	-$17	Trade ↗
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	28.7¢	$137	-$46	Trade ↗
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?	Yes	12.5¢	$132	-$202	Trade ↗
Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026?	Yes	26.0¢	$130	-$43	Trade ↗
Will 0 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?	No	95.9¢	$120	-$0	Trade ↗
X banned in any European country by December 31?	Yes	29.6¢	$112	-$117	Trade ↗
Will Trump pardon anyone by October 31?	Yes	90.6¢	$106	+$1	Trade ↗
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Yes	20.4¢	$100	-$77	Trade ↗
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	35.0¢	$97	+$17	Trade ↗
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?	Yes	44.4¢	$93	-$69	Trade ↗
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?	Yes	28.6¢	$86	-$148	Trade ↗
Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	6.0¢	$83	+$24	Trade ↗
Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027?	Yes	6.7¢	$68	-$110	Trade ↗
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	61.2¢	$63	-$104	Trade ↗
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?	Yes	43.1¢	$49	-$65	Trade ↗
Will the Nevada abortion protection amendment pass?	Yes	94.0¢	$43	+$2	Trade ↗
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Yes	69.5¢	$42	-$134	Trade ↗
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	40.5¢	$41	+$1	Trade ↗
Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by December 31, 2026?	Yes	91.0¢	$41	-$27	Trade ↗
Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?	Yes	21.4¢	$36	-$71	Trade ↗
Will Anthony DiLorenzo be the Republican Nominee for NH-01?	Yes	76.0¢	$25	+$3	Trade ↗
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?	No	71.0¢	$20	+$4	Trade ↗
Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2028?	Yes	87.0¢	$15	-$0	Trade ↗
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Yes	2.0¢	$15	+$3	Trade ↗
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union" before 2027?	Yes	15.2¢	$11	-$14	Trade ↗
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	Yes	12.7¢	$9	-$557	Trade ↗
Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by December 31?	Yes	45.0¢	$9	-$5	Trade ↗
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	15.0¢	$8	-$8	Trade ↗
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?	Yes	60.0¢	$8	-$5	Trade ↗
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	Yes	14.3¢	$5	-$1	Trade ↗
Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027?	Yes	74.0¢	$4	+$1	Trade ↗
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Yes	85.9¢	$4	-$2	Trade ↗
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027?	Yes	17.0¢	$3	-$1	Trade ↗
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 13, 2026?	Yes	50.3¢	$2	-$36	Trade ↗
US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?	Yes	31.6¢	$2	-$4	Trade ↗
Sudan civil war ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	18.0¢	$2	-$1	Trade ↗
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?	Yes	15.0¢	$1	+$0	Trade ↗
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	Yes	72.0¢	$1	+$0	Trade ↗
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?	Yes	36.0¢	$1	-$1	Trade ↗
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	49.9¢	$0	-$1	Trade ↗
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 25m and 28m?	Yes	20.4¢	$0	-$222	Trade ↗
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	Yes	12.0¢	$0	-$2	Trade ↗
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?	Yes	19.0¢	$0	-$4	Trade ↗
Will Russell Fry place second in first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?	Yes	19.7¢	$0	-$8	Trade ↗
Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by August 6?	Yes	11.0¢	$0	-$4	Trade ↗
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	8.7¢	$0	-$4,320	Trade ↗
Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in May 2026?	Yes	12.8¢	$0	-$8	Trade ↗
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	Yes	66.0¢	$0	-$40	Trade ↗
Will Donald Trump announce Sean O'Brien as the next United States Labor Secretary	Yes	2.9¢	$0	-$178	Trade ↗
NATO downs another Russian drone by July 31?	Yes	16.0¢	$0	-$1	Trade ↗
Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 38.0% by the end of May?	Yes	61.0¢	$0	-$12	Trade ↗
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	Yes	11.8¢	$0	-$958	Trade ↗
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	46.0¢	$0	-$53	Trade ↗
Will Warsh say "Dissent" during July Press Conference?	Yes	47.5¢	$0	-$10	Trade ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	19.8¢	$0	-$6,928	Trade ↗
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	Yes	41.1¢	$0	-$3,570	Trade ↗
Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?	Yes	37.1¢	$0	-$985	Trade ↗
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	10.0¢	$0	-$746	Trade ↗
Will Matt Maasdam be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?	Yes	19.6¢	$0	-$1	Trade ↗
Will Donald Trump announce Patrick Pizzella as the next United States Labor Secretary	Yes	2.9¢	$0	-$241	Trade ↗
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?	No	31.4¢	$0	-$14,643	Trade ↗
Will Trump say "Ballroom" this week?	Yes	31.0¢	$0	-$310	Trade ↗
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 75m?	Yes	20.0¢	$0	-$6,052	Trade ↗
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primary?	No	30.8¢	$0	-$1,701	Trade ↗
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 105m and 115m?	Yes	18.1¢	$0	-$12,318	Trade ↗
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 13, 2026?	No	7.3¢	$0	-$20	Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

Time	Market	Side	Outcome	Price	Size
2d ago	Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	SELL	Yes	95.0¢	$70,019
3d ago	Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	BUY	Yes	70.2¢	$13,068
5d ago	Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	BUY	Yes	79.2¢	$23,208
5d ago	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	BUY	Yes	13.7¢	$61,501
7d ago	Will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall in Japan?	BUY	No	99.7¢	$11,078
7d ago	Will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall in Japan?	BUY	No	98.3¢	$21,633
9d ago	Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	BUY	No	99.9¢	$102,035
9d ago	Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	BUY	No	99.8¢	$44,630
10d ago	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	BUY	Yes	99.8¢	$12,763
10d ago	Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 5th Weekend Box Office be at least 26m?	BUY	No	99.9¢	$12,440
14d ago	Does Ox Alpha belong to Zhipu AI (Z.ai)?	BUY	Yes	99.7¢	$14,816
16d ago	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	BUY	Yes	71.3¢	$21,047
26d ago	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	BUY	Yes	71.1¢	$21,523
28d ago	Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	BUY	No	99.9¢	$70,005
28d ago	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	BUY	Yes	99.9¢	$22,128
30d ago	Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	BUY	No	56.1¢	$10,037
33d ago	Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs Black Phoenix (+1.5)	BUY	Black Phoenix	99.9¢	$12,863
33d ago	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?	BUY	No	34.0¢	$21,809