Orion96

62Qualified whaleProven trader

0x3069c1002bd0bb6aec054c7a27722919df95f8ef· stats updated 3d ago

Realized PnL

+$112,727

closed + open positions

Return on capital

realized PnL ÷ capital deployed

Win rate

93%

465 of 500 resolved

Resolved markets

500

Portfolio value

$26,635

Capital deployed

$1,739,453

lifetime cost of all positions

Tracked whale volume

$20,000

volume seen by WhaleWatcher

Open positions

Trader score (PnL + return + consistency + sample size − concentration)

PnL 12.3/30Return 5.4/25Consistency 25.0/25Sample size 20.0/20Concentration -0.5Total 62.1 / 100

Current positions

Market	Outcome	Avg price	Value	Unrealized PnL	Trade
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	63.7¢	$7,366	+$2,207	Trade ↗
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	91.0¢	$4,066	+$66	Trade ↗
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	84.4¢	$2,432	+$228	Trade ↗
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	No	61.8¢	$2,373	-$6,259	Trade ↗
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?	Yes	42.8¢	$2,036	-$3,579	Trade ↗
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?	No	83.7¢	$1,402	+$147	Trade ↗
Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	82.0¢	$1,018	+$18	Trade ↗
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	56.0¢	$595	+$35	Trade ↗
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	62.0¢	$565	+$65	Trade ↗
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	78.0¢	$484	-$16	Trade ↗
5kt meteor strike in 2026?	No	47.9¢	$480	+$217	Trade ↗
Will Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026?	Yes	74.0¢	$450	+$80	Trade ↗
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Yes	68.0¢	$425	+$85	Trade ↗
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	71.0¢	$387	+$87	Trade ↗
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	40.0¢	$382	-$268	Trade ↗
Will Trump deport 400-500k people?	Yes	29.3¢	$375	+$193	Trade ↗
Will the chopsticks catch the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?	Yes	29.7¢	$353	+$203	Trade ↗
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster?	Yes	48.1¢	$268	+$73	Trade ↗
Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2026?	No	62.1¢	$226	+$80	Trade ↗
US military draft authorized in 2026?	No	92.0¢	$214	+$10	Trade ↗
Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Yes	28.5¢	$204	+$25	Trade ↗
Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	No	71.0¢	$148	+$42	Trade ↗
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	Yes	70.0¢	$93	-$907	Trade ↗
GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	63.0¢	$71	+$25	Trade ↗
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 15, 2026?	Yes	55.0¢	$66	-$99	Trade ↗
Will Trump deport 500-600k people?	Yes	5.3¢	$66	+$38	Trade ↗
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?	No	76.0¢	$54	+$10	Trade ↗
Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026?	No	60.0¢	$17	-$16	Trade ↗
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Yes	22.0¢	$11	-$77	Trade ↗
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	22.0¢	$5	-$5	Trade ↗
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?	Yes	5.8¢	$5	-$103	Trade ↗
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Yes	38.0¢	$1	+$0	Trade ↗
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	69.0¢	$0	-$2,000	Trade ↗
Will Trump say "Mr. Speaker" during the 2026 State of the Union address?	Yes	88.3¢	$0	-$2,309	Trade ↗
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?	No	71.0¢	$0	-$300	Trade ↗
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	80.0¢	$0	-$800	Trade ↗
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	70.0¢	$0	-$100	Trade ↗
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	Yes	10.0¢	$0	-$20	Trade ↗
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	3.0¢	$0	-$27	Trade ↗
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	Yes	35.6¢	$0	-$70	Trade ↗
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people?	Yes	1.0¢	$0	-$5	Trade ↗
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 19?	Yes	38.5¢	$0	-$20	Trade ↗
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?	No	11.4¢	$0	-$20	Trade ↗
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people?	Yes	0.9¢	$0	-$1	Trade ↗
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	No	58.2¢	$0	-$579	Trade ↗
Will Trump say "Objective" or "Goal" 3+ times during Address to the Nation?	No	36.4¢	$0	-$75	Trade ↗
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	69.0¢	$0	-$3,000	Trade ↗
Will Trump say "Hottest" during the 2026 State of the Union address?	No	21.6¢	$0	-$395	Trade ↗
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	31.0¢	$0	-$300	Trade ↗
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31?	Yes	32.5¢	$0	-$126	Trade ↗
Will Powell say "Balance Sheet" during March press conference?	Yes	60.0¢	$0	-$300	Trade ↗
Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?	Leadership Change	48.5¢	$0	-$200	Trade ↗
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	64.4¢	$0	-$200	Trade ↗
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	No	63.6¢	$0	-$100	Trade ↗
Will Trump say "Obama" during the State of the Union address?	No	59.9¢	$0	-$100	Trade ↗
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people?	Yes	2.3¢	$0	-$20	Trade ↗
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	38.0¢	$0	-$500	Trade ↗
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	18.6¢	$0	-$300	Trade ↗
Will Trump say "Olympic" or "Olympics" during the 2026 State of the Union address?	No	13.3¢	$0	-$109	Trade ↗
Will Trump say "No No No" during the 2026 State of the Union address?	No	80.9¢	$0	-$814	Trade ↗
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people?	Yes	2.0¢	$0	-$1	Trade ↗
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people?	Yes	1.4¢	$0	-$2	Trade ↗
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people?	Yes	1.0¢	$0	-$3	Trade ↗
Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in April?	Yes	15.0¢	$0	-$30	Trade ↗
Will Artemis II launch by April 30?	No	3.1¢	$0	-$22	Trade ↗
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	72.9¢	$0	-$430	Trade ↗
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	5.0¢	$0	-$25	Trade ↗
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?	Yes	27.7¢	$0	-$457	Trade ↗
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	68.0¢	$0	-$1,000	Trade ↗
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30?	No	3.0¢	$0	-$8	Trade ↗
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX?	Yes	32.9¢	$0	-$292	Trade ↗

Recent whale trades (only trades above the tracking threshold)

Time	Market	Side	Outcome	Price	Size
48d ago	Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?	BUY	No	97.0¢	$20,000